{"analysis":{"analysis_version":"2026-08-05-current-state-v1","assessment_date":"August 5, 2026","evidence_cutoff":"August 5, 2026","scope":"Current U.S. and credibly accessible allied position compared with the PRC. A high-end Indo-Pacific contingency is used only to select consequential pathways, not to forecast future ratings.","overall":{"score":-1.5,"label":"PRC lead","confidence":"High","judgment":"The PRC retains the current structural advantage. The decisive leverage is not universal control of ore: it is concentrated processing, refining, and qualified industrial scale across several high-consequence pathways. U.S. and allied strengths in beryllium, titanium access, specialty conversion, and emerging rare-earth magnet production narrow the gap but do not erase it.","composition_note":"This is an adjudicated judgment, not an average. Acute gallium, heavy-rare-earth, graphite, tungsten, antimony, and germanium exposures carry more consequence than the number of commodities in each camp. Unknown stockpile holdings and incomplete Tier-n mapping reduce precision but do not reverse the observed midstream concentration."},"takeaways":[{"eyebrow":"Decisive PRC leverage","title":"The bottleneck is usually after the mine.","body":"China's current leverage is strongest in primary gallium, heavy-rare-earth compounds, refined germanium, graphite/anode material, tungsten, and downstream scale. More allied ore does not solve an unqualified processing stage."},{"eyebrow":"Strongest U.S. position","title":"Beryllium is a real integrated advantage.","body":"The United States mines more than half of estimated world output, converts material domestically, is a net exporter, and retains defense-qualified downstream production. The weakness is concentration in one integrated producer."},{"eyebrow":"Allied access matters","title":"Titanium is dependent, not presently PRC-supplied.","body":"The United States is 100% import reliant for titanium sponge, but Japan supplied 73% of 2025 imports through July. Credible allied access materially changes the comparative call, even though domestic sponge production is absent."},{"eyebrow":"Most important unknown","title":"The public map stops before the decisive lower tiers.","body":"Defense demand, usable stockpile holdings, qualification status, and raw-material origin remain incomplete. GAO found country-of-origin data for fewer than 10% of suppliers behind the mapped F-35 parts in one major illumination effort."}],"drivers":[{"id":"CR-D1","name":"Mining, resource base & accessible supply","score":-0.75,"label":"PRC edge","confidence":"High","judgment":"The PRC leads selected upstream supply in rare earths, graphite, tungsten, and gallium byproduct recovery. The U.S. leads beryllium, while Australia, Canada, Japan, and other partners create meaningful options. Those options count only where operating output and U.S. access are demonstrated.","contrary":"The PRC does not control every mineral base. U.S. beryllium and allied titanium, cobalt, rare-earth, antimony, and tungsten resources prevent an across-the-board upstream monopoly.","source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S07|CR-S09"},{"id":"CR-D2","name":"Processing, refining & separation","score":-2.0,"label":"Strong PRC lead","confidence":"High","judgment":"This is the decisive driver. China produced 99% of primary low-purity gallium, 77% of refined germanium in the USGS China baseline, and the dominant shares of multiple selected mineral-processing chains. U.S. primary recovery is absent for gallium and germanium and commercial heavy-rare-earth output was not yet sustained in 2025.","contrary":"Allied refiners in Belgium, Canada, Germany, Japan, Norway, and Finland reduce direct U.S. exposure in selected chains, and new U.S. rare-earth separation output is operating. Feedstock origin and spare qualified output remain incompletely mapped.","source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S07|CR-S20"},{"id":"CR-D3","name":"Defense-qualified materials & components","score":-1.0,"label":"PRC edge","confidence":"Moderate","judgment":"The PRC's broad metals, magnet, battery-material, and component ecosystem creates scale and integration advantages. U.S. capabilities are stronger than the old narrative implied: qualified domestic magnets exist, commercial NdFeB manufacturing began in December 2025, and U.S. firms retain high-value gallium, germanium, tungsten, titanium, and beryllium conversion capabilities.","contrary":"Public data do not reveal defense-grade output, acceptance rates, or demand coverage across most pathways. Emerging U.S. capacity is therefore credited as operating or qualified where evidenced, but not presumed sufficient.","source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S12|CR-S19|CR-S20"},{"id":"CR-D4","name":"Supplier visibility & dependency control","score":-1.0,"label":"Likely PRC edge","confidence":"Moderate-low","judgment":"The U.S. disadvantage is directly observed: procurement records identify the prime item but usually not raw-material or component origin, and major mapping efforts still lose visibility in lower tiers. A relative PRC edge is inferred from greater vertical concentration and state influence, not from a comparable public PRC supplier map.","contrary":"PRC military supply chains are opaque, so superior PRC visibility cannot be measured directly. This driver records a demonstrated U.S. weakness and a bounded comparative inference—not a symmetrical data comparison.","source_ids":"CR-S12"},{"id":"CR-D5","name":"Buffers, alternatives & redundancy","score":0.0,"label":"Inconclusive","confidence":"Low","judgment":"The U.S. has allied suppliers, recycling capability, substitutes, and a National Defense Stockpile; the PRC has scale, inventories, and internal supply relationships. Public evidence cannot compare usable holdings or defense-demand coverage, so no relative leader is adjudicated.","contrary":"Visible U.S. annual acquisition plans are not stockpile holdings, and nominal allied production is not reserved access. Semiconductor substitution is generally not a current answer for gallium and related materials.","source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S11|CR-S13|CR-S18"},{"id":"CR-D6","name":"Demonstrated expansion & qualification execution","score":-0.75,"label":"PRC edge","confidence":"Moderate","judgment":"China enters expansion from a much larger operating base. U.S. execution improved in 2025: domestic NdPr output reached a record, commercial magnet manufacturing began, a domestic antimony mine restarted, and new solid-rocket-motor investment entered qualification work. Much of the remaining portfolio is still commissioning, demonstration, construction, or award activity rather than sustained accepted output.","contrary":"The U.S. should receive credit for facilities actually producing, not merely for announcements. The assessment does not project a future rating from projects that have not yet delivered qualified output.","source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S14|CR-S20|CR-S21|CR-S22"}],"pathways":[{"id":"CR-P01","name":"NdFeB permanent magnets","materials":"Neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, terbium and boron","defense_function":"High-performance motors, actuators, guidance, radar and power systems","leader":"PRC lead","tone":"prc-lead","confidence":"High","priority":"P1 · break leverage","decisive_stage":"Heavy-rare-earth separation and scaled magnet output","judgment":"U.S. mining and light-rare-earth separation are now material capabilities, but the current chain remains exposed at heavy-rare-earth compounds and scaled magnet production. China also demonstrated coercive leverage through 2025 export controls.","mitigation":"Domestic NdPr oxide output reached 2,599 metric tons in 2025; qualified U.S. magnet production exists, and MP Materials began commercial-equipment NdFeB manufacturing in December 2025. Those are operating gains, but sufficient defense coverage is not public.","gap":"Defense magnet demand, accepted output by grade, embedded magnets, and stockpile coverage are not publicly comparable.","stages":[{"name":"Mine","status":"mixed"},{"name":"Separate","status":"prc"},{"name":"Metal / alloy","status":"prc"},{"name":"Qualified magnet","status":"mixed"}],"observation_ids":"CR-O01|CR-O02|CR-O03|CR-O04","recommendation_ids":"CR-A02|CR-A04|CR-A05|CR-A06","source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S19|CR-S20"},{"id":"CR-P02","name":"Samarium-cobalt magnets & cobalt superalloys","materials":"Samarium and cobalt","defense_function":"High-temperature magnets, aircraft-engine superalloys, cutting and wear-resistant materials","leader":"PRC edge","tone":"prc-edge","confidence":"Moderate","priority":"P2 · close the gap","decisive_stage":"Refined cobalt and qualified high-temperature material","judgment":"The United States is highly import reliant while mine supply is concentrated in Congo (Kinshasa) and China remains the leading refined-cobalt producer. Samarium was also included in China's April 2025 rare-earth controls.","mitigation":"Seventy percent of reported U.S. cobalt import sources were Norway, Finland, Canada, and Japan. That allied refinery network materially reduces direct PRC dependence, although upstream ownership and feedstock origin remain incomplete.","gap":"Comparable refined-cobalt market shares, defense demand, SmCo output by grade, and usable stockpile holdings are not public.","stages":[{"name":"Mine","status":"unknown"},{"name":"Refine","status":"prc"},{"name":"Alloy","status":"mixed"},{"name":"Qualified input","status":"mixed"}],"observation_ids":"CR-O05|CR-O06|CR-O07|CR-O08","recommendation_ids":"CR-A02|CR-A03|CR-A04|CR-A05","source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S07"},{"id":"CR-P03","name":"Gallium RF semiconductors","materials":"Gallium metal, gallium arsenide and gallium nitride","defense_function":"Radar, electronic warfare, communications, high-power RF and optoelectronics","leader":"Strong PRC lead","tone":"prc-lead","confidence":"High","priority":"P1 · break leverage","decisive_stage":"Primary gallium recovery","judgment":"This is the clearest single pathway of PRC leverage: China produced 99% of primary low-purity gallium, the United States was 100% import reliant, and USGS reports no effective substitutes for many defense GaAs and GaN applications.","mitigation":"The United States retains one high-purity recovery/refining facility using imported feedstock and domestic compound-semiconductor capability. Demonstration funding for primary recovery has not yet become sustained output.","gap":"Defense demand, inventory, feedstock origin behind allied imports, and accepted output by purity are not public.","stages":[{"name":"Byproduct recovery","status":"prc"},{"name":"High-purity refine","status":"mixed"},{"name":"Wafer","status":"mixed"},{"name":"RF device","status":"mixed"}],"observation_ids":"CR-O09|CR-O10|CR-O11|CR-O12","recommendation_ids":"CR-A01|CR-A02|CR-A04|CR-A05","source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S07|CR-S13|CR-S14"},{"id":"CR-P04","name":"Germanium optics, fiber & space substrates","materials":"Germanium metal, dioxide and tetrachloride","defense_function":"Infrared optics, fiber optics, space solar cells and radiation detectors","leader":"PRC lead","tone":"prc-edge","confidence":"Moderate-high","priority":"P1 · break leverage","decisive_stage":"Refined germanium metal","judgment":"China held 77% of refined output in the USGS China baseline and its U.S. export ban drove estimated U.S. germanium-metal imports down 67% in 2025. The United States has no primary refinery output.","mitigation":"Belgium, Canada, and Germany supplied 72% of combined U.S. metal and dioxide imports, and U.S. firms recycle optics, fiber waste, and substrates. Some allied output may still contain upstream Chinese feedstock.","gap":"Global refinery data are limited, most producers do not report output, and defense-grade demand and inventory are not public.","stages":[{"name":"Mine / residue","status":"mixed"},{"name":"Refine","status":"prc"},{"name":"Optical material","status":"mixed"},{"name":"Qualified component","status":"unknown"}],"observation_ids":"CR-O13|CR-O14|CR-O15|CR-O16","recommendation_ids":"CR-A01|CR-A02|CR-A03|CR-A04|CR-A05","source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S07|CR-S13"},{"id":"CR-P05","name":"Antimony metal & oxide","materials":"Antimony ore, metal and oxide","defense_function":"Ammunition and lead alloys, flame retardants, glass and specialty materials","leader":"Strong PRC lead","tone":"prc-lead","confidence":"High","priority":"P1 · break leverage","decisive_stage":"Primary metal and oxide supply","judgment":"The United States was 91% net import reliant; China supplied 55% of reported U.S. metal and oxide imports and banned antimony exports to the United States. Russia was also a major world producer, compounding access risk.","mitigation":"Domestic mining restarted in 2025 and one U.S. company produced metal and oxide from imported feedstock. Recycling supplied 12% of apparent consumption, principally within the lead-acid battery loop.","gap":"New domestic mine output is withheld, defense-grade allocation is unknown, and annual stockpile plans do not reveal usable holdings.","stages":[{"name":"Mine","status":"prc"},{"name":"Smelt / oxide","status":"prc"},{"name":"Defense material","status":"mixed"},{"name":"Inventory","status":"unknown"}],"observation_ids":"CR-O17|CR-O18|CR-O19|CR-O20","recommendation_ids":"CR-A01|CR-A02|CR-A03|CR-A04","source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S11|CR-S14"},{"id":"CR-P06","name":"Tungsten concentrates, APT & carbide","materials":"Tungsten ore, ammonium paratungstate, metal and carbide","defense_function":"Cutting tools, wear parts, high-density components, electronics and specialty alloys","leader":"Strong PRC lead","tone":"prc-lead","confidence":"High","priority":"P1 · break leverage","decisive_stage":"Mine and intermediate conversion","judgment":"China produced about 79% of estimated world mine output in 2025 and imposed export controls on selected tungsten items. The United States has had no commercial mine production since 2015 and remains more than 50% import reliant.","mitigation":"Seven U.S. companies can convert concentrates, APT, oxide, or scrap into powders, carbide, and chemicals. DPA awards support projects in the United States and Canada, but project awards are not current mine output.","gap":"U.S. secondary output, industry stocks, apparent consumption, defense allocation, and PRC inventory are withheld or unavailable.","stages":[{"name":"Mine","status":"prc"},{"name":"APT / oxide","status":"prc"},{"name":"Powder / carbide","status":"mixed"},{"name":"Qualified part","status":"unknown"}],"observation_ids":"CR-O21|CR-O22|CR-O23|CR-O24","recommendation_ids":"CR-A01|CR-A02|CR-A03|CR-A04|CR-A06","source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S07|CR-S22"},{"id":"CR-P07","name":"Natural graphite & active anode material","materials":"Natural graphite, spherical purified graphite and active anode material","defense_function":"Battery anodes, refractories, castings, lubricants and defense-related components","leader":"Strong PRC lead","tone":"prc-lead","confidence":"High","priority":"P1 · break leverage","decisive_stage":"Spherical purification and anode material","judgment":"The United States produced no natural graphite and was 100% import reliant. China produced 82% of world natural graphite and supplied 55% of U.S. active-anode-material imports in 2025; Chinese-owned production outside China can preserve control despite geographic diversification.","mitigation":"Two U.S. companies produced spherical purified graphite and another commissioned a qualification line. Multiple domestic mines and processing plants remain in development, and Korea supplies qualified anode material.","gap":"Defense battery demand, anode qualification by program, ownership-adjusted origin, and usable inventory are not publicly mapped.","stages":[{"name":"Mine","status":"prc"},{"name":"Purify / sphere","status":"prc"},{"name":"Anode material","status":"prc"},{"name":"Qualified cell","status":"mixed"}],"observation_ids":"CR-O25|CR-O26|CR-O27|CR-O28","recommendation_ids":"CR-A01|CR-A02|CR-A03|CR-A05","source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S07|CR-S13|CR-S16"},{"id":"CR-P08","name":"Aerospace-grade titanium","materials":"Titanium sponge, scrap, powder, ingot and alloy","defense_function":"Aircraft, engines, armor, marine hardware and high-strength structures","leader":"Contested / allied mitigation","tone":"contested","confidence":"High","priority":"P2 · close the gap","decisive_stage":"Sponge metal","judgment":"The United States produced no titanium sponge and was 100% import reliant, while China made about 70% of world sponge. That global asymmetry does not equal direct U.S. dependence on China: Japan supplied 73% of U.S. imports through July 2025.","mitigation":"Japan is a credible ally with operating sponge production; Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan supplied most of the remainder. The United States retains downstream ingot, alloy, aerospace manufacturing, scrap, and emerging powder capabilities.","gap":"Spare Japanese output, wartime allocation, transport, U.S. industry stocks, and qualified defense demand are not public.","stages":[{"name":"Mineral feed","status":"mixed"},{"name":"Sponge","status":"mixed"},{"name":"Ingot / alloy","status":"us"},{"name":"Qualified structure","status":"us"}],"observation_ids":"CR-O29|CR-O30|CR-O31|CR-O32","recommendation_ids":"CR-A03|CR-A04|CR-A05|CR-A06","source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S09|CR-S18"},{"id":"CR-P09","name":"Defense-grade beryllium","materials":"Bertrandite, beryllium metal, oxide and copper alloy","defense_function":"Aerospace and defense structures, precision instruments, electronics and scientific systems","leader":"U.S. lead","tone":"us-lead","confidence":"High","priority":"P3 · protect the edge","decisive_stage":"Integrated mine-to-product chain","judgment":"The United States holds a genuine current advantage: it produced about 54% of estimated world mine output, converts domestic ore to metal, oxide, and master alloy, and is a net exporter. A DPA-supported domestic metal capability serves critical defense needs.","mitigation":"Recycling may supply 20% to 25% of U.S. consumption and the leading producer recovers substantial new and old alloy scrap.","gap":"The advantage is concentrated in one integrated company. Facility-level redundancy, defense allocation, and recovery time are not public.","stages":[{"name":"Mine","status":"us"},{"name":"Refine","status":"us"},{"name":"Alloy / oxide","status":"us"},{"name":"Qualified product","status":"us"}],"observation_ids":"CR-O33|CR-O34|CR-O35|CR-O36","recommendation_ids":"CR-A04|CR-A05|CR-A06","source_ids":"CR-S03"},{"id":"CR-P10","name":"Solid-rocket-motor energetics & precursors","materials":"Ammonium perchlorate and other defense-unique energetic inputs","defense_function":"Tactical and strategic missile propulsion","leader":"U.S. constraint · PRC unknown","tone":"unknown","confidence":"Moderate-low","priority":"P2 · close the gap","decisive_stage":"Qualified sole-source ingredients","judgment":"The U.S. vulnerability is clear even though the relative PRC position is not: the latest detailed public GAO baseline found one certified U.S. ammonium-perchlorate supplier, many defense-unique ingredients, and expensive requalification when any ingredient changes.","mitigation":"A 2025 DPA award is expanding another solid-rocket-motor source and qualification capacity. FY2024-2026 funding also targets solid rocket motors and critical chemicals, but accepted output by ingredient is not public.","gap":"Current PRC supplier count, qualification depth, output, inventory, and comparable disruption performance are not available publicly; no PRC advantage is assigned from the gap.","stages":[{"name":"Chemical input","status":"unknown"},{"name":"Energetic","status":"mixed"},{"name":"Motor","status":"mixed"},{"name":"Accepted output","status":"unknown"}],"observation_ids":"CR-O37|CR-O38|CR-O39|CR-O40","recommendation_ids":"CR-A01|CR-A02|CR-A04|CR-A06","source_ids":"CR-S14|CR-S17|CR-S21"}],"recommendations":[{"id":"CR-A01","rank":1,"title":"Make material provenance a contract deliverable for priority systems","diagnosis":"DoD cannot consistently see raw-material origin, ownership, qualification, or shared lower-tier choke points, so investment is often reactive.","action":"For the ten applied pathways, require primes to provide a governed material-stage record through the decisive tier: material/form, facility, country of origin, controlling owner, qualification status, alternate source, and affected part or function. Start with priority programs and protect proprietary data rather than demanding an indiscriminate all-supplier census.","expected_effect":"High","feasibility":"High","cost_band":"Low–medium","owner":"OUSD(A&S), SCRM Integration Cell, service acquisition executives and program offices","lead_time":"6–18 months for the first priority-system baseline","prerequisites":"Common data schema, contract clauses, data-rights and security rules, program-level prioritization","verification":"At least 85% of declared critical dependencies mapped to material, stage, facility, ownership, country, qualification, and mission use; unmapped share remains visible.","pathway_ids":"CR-P03|CR-P04|CR-P05|CR-P06|CR-P07|CR-P10","source_ids":"CR-S12"},{"id":"CR-A02","rank":2,"title":"Buy accepted midstream output—not nominal mine or plant capacity","diagnosis":"The strongest PRC leverage sits in processing and qualification, while U.S. policy often counts awards, announcements, or ore as if they were usable defense inputs.","action":"Use purchase commitments, price floors, and offtake agreements tied to sustained accepted lots of heavy-rare-earth compounds and magnets, high-purity gallium and germanium, tungsten intermediates, antimony metal/oxide, and qualified graphite anode material. Pay against commissioning, yield, qualification, and delivery milestones.","expected_effect":"Very high","feasibility":"Medium","cost_band":"High","owner":"DoD MCEIP/DPA Title III, DLA Strategic Materials, DOE, service program offices","lead_time":"18–48 months, varying by material and qualification burden","prerequisites":"Validated specification and demand signal, feedstock plan, independent source test, qualification authority","verification":"Sustained accepted output from at least two independent non-PRC pathways at the required grade; nameplate capacity reported separately.","pathway_ids":"CR-P01|CR-P02|CR-P03|CR-P04|CR-P05|CR-P06|CR-P07|CR-P10","source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S14|CR-S19|CR-S20"},{"id":"CR-A03","rank":3,"title":"Convert allied production into enforceable access","diagnosis":"Nominal allied capacity can be unavailable because of existing customers, feedstock, export authority, ownership, transport, or missing defense qualification.","action":"Negotiate defense-priority offtake and qualification arrangements around operating allied nodes: Japanese titanium sponge; Belgian, Canadian, and German germanium; Norwegian, Finnish, Canadian, and Japanese cobalt; and credible Australian, Canadian, European, and Korean mineral-processing projects. Record controlling ownership and upstream feedstock, not only facility geography.","expected_effect":"High","feasibility":"Medium–high","cost_band":"Medium","owner":"Departments of State and Defense, DFC, EXIM, DLA and allied ministries","lead_time":"12–36 months","prerequisites":"Export authority, allocation terms, logistics plan, common specification and qualification pathway","verification":"Contracted, qualified output with auditable feedstock, priority access, transport route, and delivery performance; nominal national capacity receives no credit.","pathway_ids":"CR-P02|CR-P04|CR-P05|CR-P06|CR-P07|CR-P08","source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S09"},{"id":"CR-A04","rank":4,"title":"Use the stockpile as a qualification bridge at the decisive material stage","diagnosis":"Public annual material plans do not reveal usable holdings, and stockpiling ore does not solve a shortage of defense-grade metal, chemical, magnet, powder, or energetic input.","action":"Set classified or controlled inventory objectives against validated consumption and alternate-source lead time. Hold the processed form that can enter the production line, exercise release protocols, and reduce the buffer as qualified independent output becomes available.","expected_effect":"High","feasibility":"High","cost_band":"Medium–high","owner":"DLA Strategic Materials, service sustainment commands and program offices","lead_time":"6–24 months for acquisition and release validation","prerequisites":"Defensible demand range, shelf-life and storage plan, specification control, release and replenishment authority","verification":"Coverage is calculated from usable material and validated demand; release exercises prove delivery to an accepting production line.","pathway_ids":"CR-P01|CR-P02|CR-P03|CR-P04|CR-P05|CR-P06|CR-P08|CR-P09|CR-P10","source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S11|CR-S18"},{"id":"CR-A05","rank":5,"title":"Fund qualification and closed-loop recovery together","diagnosis":"Recycling or substitution is often counted at laboratory or gross-tonnage level even when recovered material cannot meet the original defense specification.","action":"Pair recycling and substitution projects with representative parts, acceptance criteria, production yield, retained feedstock, and a named qualification authority. Prioritize magnet scrap, germanium optics and wafers, cobalt and tungsten scrap, graphite anodes, and titanium scrap/powder where current industrial capability exists.","expected_effect":"Medium–high","feasibility":"Medium","cost_band":"Medium","owner":"DoD laboratories and program offices, DLA, DOE and qualified manufacturers","lead_time":"12–36 months for selected pathways","prerequisites":"Feedstock capture, chain-of-custody, specification, representative test article and acceptance authority","verification":"Repeated accepted lots at declared yield and scale; recycled or substitute output is credited only against the demand it can actually meet.","pathway_ids":"CR-P01|CR-P02|CR-P03|CR-P04|CR-P07|CR-P08|CR-P09","source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S13|CR-S20"},{"id":"CR-A06","rank":6,"title":"Protect existing U.S. strengths from becoming new single points of failure","diagnosis":"Beryllium, tungsten conversion, emerging magnet production, titanium downstream processing, and solid-rocket-motor skills are valuable but concentrated.","action":"Maintain warm equipment and skilled workforces, qualify independent backup processes where economics permit, pre-negotiate surge inputs, and monitor common utilities and sub-tier chemicals. Preserve the integrated beryllium chain while adding recovery and alternate-process resilience rather than fragmenting its current advantage.","expected_effect":"Medium–high","feasibility":"High","cost_band":"Medium","owner":"DoD Industrial Base Policy, DPA Title III, service acquisition and sustainment organizations","lead_time":"12–30 months for initial redundancy and continuity plans","prerequisites":"Facility-level dependency map, workforce and equipment baseline, qualification plan, stable demand","verification":"Critical processes have tested continuity plans and either an independent qualified source or a funded, exercised recovery path with defined acceptance criteria.","pathway_ids":"CR-P01|CR-P06|CR-P08|CR-P09|CR-P10","source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S14|CR-S17|CR-S19|CR-S21|CR-S22"}],"limitations":["Most commodity values are 2025 estimates published in 2026; they do not measure classified wartime demand.","National production does not establish ownership, spare output, defense qualification, or U.S. access.","PRC inventory, military allocation, utilization, and lower-tier supplier data are often unavailable or unverifiable.","National Defense Stockpile annual plans show potential transactions, not holdings or days of coverage.","A current project, award, or announced capacity is displayed as mitigation but never counted as sustained accepted output.","The ten pathways are a consequence-selected first cut, not a claim that the remaining federal minerals are unimportant."]},"observations":[{"observation_id":"CR-O01","pathway_id":"CR-P01","metric_id":"CR-M02","driver_ids":"CR-D1|CR-D2","actor":"PRC","stage":"mine","observation":"China produced 270,000 of 390,000 metric tons of estimated world rare-earth mine output.","value":"69.2","unit":"percent","applied_rule":"PRC-controlled stage share: exposed at 50%–74.9%.","condition_bucket":"exposed","relative_effect":"Supports PRC edge","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Rare Earths chapter","as_of":"2025 estimate","confidence":"high","limitation":"Mine share combines light and heavy rare earths and does not measure separated output."},{"observation_id":"CR-O02","pathway_id":"CR-P01","metric_id":"CR-M04","driver_ids":"CR-D2","actor":"U.S.","stage":"compounds and metals","observation":"U.S. net import reliance for rare-earth compounds and metals was 67%.","value":"67","unit":"percent","applied_rule":"Net import reliance: exposed at 50%–74.9%.","condition_bucket":"exposed","relative_effect":"Supports PRC edge","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Rare Earths chapter","as_of":"2025 estimate","confidence":"high","limitation":"Finished goods containing rare earths are not captured."},{"observation_id":"CR-O03","pathway_id":"CR-P01","metric_id":"CR-M04","driver_ids":"CR-D2|CR-D3","actor":"U.S.","stage":"heavy-rare-earth compounds and metals","observation":"U.S. net import reliance was 100%; several U.S. companies produced small quantities, but none sustained commercial-scale output.","value":"100","unit":"percent","applied_rule":"Net import reliance: acute at 75% or greater.","condition_bucket":"acute","relative_effect":"Strongly supports PRC edge","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Rare Earths (Heavy) chapter","as_of":"2025 estimate","confidence":"high","limitation":"Trade codes and output are not available for every individual heavy rare earth."},{"observation_id":"CR-O04","pathway_id":"CR-P01","metric_id":"CR-M06","driver_ids":"CR-D3|CR-D6","actor":"U.S.","stage":"NdPr oxide and magnets","observation":"MP Materials produced a record 2,599 metric tons of NdPr oxide and commenced NdFeB magnet manufacturing on commercial equipment in December 2025.","value":"2599","unit":"metric tons NdPr oxide","applied_rule":"Actual output is displayed separately from projected magnet capacity; no condition bucket applies.","condition_bucket":"operating / scaling","relative_effect":"Mitigates but does not erase PRC edge","source_ids":"CR-S20","source_detail":"MP Materials 2025 Form 10-K","as_of":"2025 actual","confidence":"moderate-high","limitation":"Company filing; magnet tonnage and defense-qualified demand coverage were not disclosed."},{"observation_id":"CR-O05","pathway_id":"CR-P02","metric_id":"CR-M04","driver_ids":"CR-D1|CR-D2|CR-D3","actor":"U.S.","stage":"refined cobalt supply","observation":"U.S. net import reliance for cobalt was 79%.","value":"79","unit":"percent","applied_rule":"Net import reliance: acute at 75% or greater.","condition_bucket":"acute","relative_effect":"Supports PRC edge","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Cobalt chapter","as_of":"2025 estimate","confidence":"high","limitation":"Import reliance does not identify upstream ownership or defense-grade allocation."},{"observation_id":"CR-O06","pathway_id":"CR-P02","metric_id":"CR-M03","driver_ids":"CR-D1","actor":"global","stage":"cobalt mine","observation":"Congo (Kinshasa) produced 230,000 of 310,000 metric tons; calculated country-production HHI is approximately 0.57.","value":"0.57","unit":"HHI","applied_rule":"Country production HHI: exposed at 0.40–0.599.","condition_bucket":"exposed","relative_effect":"Shows concentrated upstream risk; not itself PRC control","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"Statecrafts calculation from USGS MCS 2026 mine-production table","as_of":"2025 estimate","confidence":"high","limitation":"Country concentration does not resolve Chinese ownership or offtake."},{"observation_id":"CR-O07","pathway_id":"CR-P02","metric_id":"CR-M20","driver_ids":"CR-D2|CR-D5","actor":"U.S. / allies","stage":"refined cobalt imports","observation":"Norway, Finland, Canada, and Japan supplied 70% of reported U.S. cobalt imports.","value":"70","unit":"percent of imports","applied_rule":"Operating allied supply is credited as accessible where trade is observed; no condition bucket applies.","condition_bucket":"verified accessible","relative_effect":"Mitigates direct PRC dependence","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, 2021–2024 import sources","as_of":"2021–2024","confidence":"high","limitation":"Refiners can rely on third-country feedstock and existing customers."},{"observation_id":"CR-O08","pathway_id":"CR-P02","metric_id":"CR-M02","driver_ids":"CR-D2|CR-D3","actor":"PRC","stage":"refined cobalt","observation":"USGS identifies China as the leading refined-cobalt producer, but a comparable current share was not published in the MCS chapter.","value":"","unit":"","applied_rule":"Unscored when a comparable value is unavailable.","condition_bucket":"unknown","relative_effect":"Prevents false precision","source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S07","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026 and China mineral-industry baseline","as_of":"2025 / 2023 baseline","confidence":"moderate","limitation":"No current public refined share or defense allocation."},{"observation_id":"CR-O09","pathway_id":"CR-P03","metric_id":"CR-M02","driver_ids":"CR-D1|CR-D2","actor":"PRC","stage":"primary low-purity gallium","observation":"China produced 900,000 of about 909,000 kilograms of estimated world primary low-purity gallium.","value":"99","unit":"percent","applied_rule":"PRC-controlled stage share: acute at 75% or greater.","condition_bucket":"acute","relative_effect":"Decisive PRC leverage","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Gallium chapter","as_of":"2025 estimate","confidence":"high","limitation":"Primary output does not equal high-purity or device output, but it is the feedstock bottleneck."},{"observation_id":"CR-O10","pathway_id":"CR-P03","metric_id":"CR-M04","driver_ids":"CR-D1|CR-D2","actor":"U.S.","stage":"primary gallium supply","observation":"The United States had no primary recovery and was 100% import reliant.","value":"100","unit":"percent","applied_rule":"Net import reliance: acute at 75% or greater.","condition_bucket":"acute","relative_effect":"Decisive PRC leverage","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Gallium chapter","as_of":"2025 estimate","confidence":"high","limitation":"Excludes gallium arsenide wafers from the reliance calculation."},{"observation_id":"CR-O11","pathway_id":"CR-P03","metric_id":"CR-M15","driver_ids":"CR-D3|CR-D5","actor":"U.S.","stage":"defense GaAs and GaN applications","observation":"USGS reports no effective substitutes for GaAs and GaN in many defense-related applications.","value":"","unit":"","applied_rule":"Substitute readiness: acute where no viable substitute exists.","condition_bucket":"acute","relative_effect":"Sustains exposure","source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S13","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026; GAO-26-108687","as_of":"2026 publication","confidence":"high","limitation":"Substitution is application-specific; some lower-performance uses can switch materials."},{"observation_id":"CR-O12","pathway_id":"CR-P03","metric_id":"CR-M05","driver_ids":"CR-D2|CR-D5","actor":"U.S.","stage":"high-purity recovery","observation":"One U.S. company recovered and refined high-purity gallium from imported primary metal and new scrap.","value":"1","unit":"qualified domestic facility reported","applied_rule":"Independent source count: exposed at one source.","condition_bucket":"exposed","relative_effect":"Narrow mitigation with shared feedstock risk","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Gallium chapter","as_of":"2025","confidence":"high","limitation":"Facility output and defense allocation are not public; primary feedstock remains imported."},{"observation_id":"CR-O13","pathway_id":"CR-P04","metric_id":"CR-M02","driver_ids":"CR-D2","actor":"PRC","stage":"refined germanium","observation":"China accounted for 77% of refined germanium in the USGS China mineral-industry baseline.","value":"77","unit":"percent","applied_rule":"PRC-controlled stage share: acute at 75% or greater.","condition_bucket":"acute","relative_effect":"Decisive PRC leverage","source_ids":"CR-S07","source_detail":"USGS OFR 2026-1018","as_of":"2023 baseline","confidence":"moderate-high","limitation":"Global refinery reporting is incomplete and the value is a 2023 baseline."},{"observation_id":"CR-O14","pathway_id":"CR-P04","metric_id":"CR-M04","driver_ids":"CR-D2","actor":"U.S.","stage":"germanium supply","observation":"U.S. net import reliance was greater than 50%.","value":">50","unit":"percent","applied_rule":"Net import reliance: at least exposed at 50%–74.9%; exact value unavailable.","condition_bucket":"exposed","relative_effect":"Supports PRC edge","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Germanium chapter","as_of":"2025 estimate","confidence":"high","limitation":"Estimated consumption and some trade forms were unavailable."},{"observation_id":"CR-O15","pathway_id":"CR-P04","metric_id":"CR-M06","driver_ids":"CR-D2|CR-D3","actor":"U.S. / PRC","stage":"germanium metal trade","observation":"Estimated U.S. germanium-metal imports fell 67% in 2025 after China's export ban to the United States.","value":"-67","unit":"percent year over year","applied_rule":"Direct disruption evidence is displayed; no universal condition bucket applies.","condition_bucket":"observed disruption","relative_effect":"Demonstrates exercised PRC leverage","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Germanium chapter","as_of":"2025 estimate","confidence":"high","limitation":"Imports of germanium dioxide rose; metal and dioxide are not interchangeable in every use."},{"observation_id":"CR-O16","pathway_id":"CR-P04","metric_id":"CR-M20","driver_ids":"CR-D2|CR-D5","actor":"U.S. / allies","stage":"germanium imports","observation":"Belgium, Canada, and Germany supplied 72% of combined reported U.S. germanium metal and dioxide imports.","value":"72","unit":"percent of imports","applied_rule":"Observed allied trade is credited as accessible; no condition bucket applies.","condition_bucket":"verified accessible","relative_effect":"Material mitigation","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, 2021–2024 import sources","as_of":"2021–2024","confidence":"high","limitation":"Allied refiners can use Chinese or other foreign feedstock."},{"observation_id":"CR-O17","pathway_id":"CR-P05","metric_id":"CR-M04","driver_ids":"CR-D1|CR-D2","actor":"U.S.","stage":"antimony metal and oxide","observation":"U.S. net import reliance was 91%.","value":"91","unit":"percent","applied_rule":"Net import reliance: acute at 75% or greater.","condition_bucket":"acute","relative_effect":"Supports strong PRC edge","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Antimony chapter","as_of":"2025 estimate","confidence":"high","limitation":"Secondary antimonial lead is largely a closed battery loop and not equivalent to every defense form."},{"observation_id":"CR-O18","pathway_id":"CR-P05","metric_id":"CR-M02","driver_ids":"CR-D2","actor":"PRC","stage":"U.S. antimony imports","observation":"China supplied 55% of total U.S. antimony metal and oxide imports.","value":"55","unit":"percent","applied_rule":"PRC-controlled stage share: exposed at 50%–74.9%.","condition_bucket":"exposed","relative_effect":"Supports PRC edge","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, 2021–2024 import sources","as_of":"2021–2024","confidence":"high","limitation":"Trade source does not capture transshipment or embedded antimony."},{"observation_id":"CR-O19","pathway_id":"CR-P05","metric_id":"CR-M06","driver_ids":"CR-D1|CR-D2|CR-D6","actor":"U.S.","stage":"mine and primary processing","observation":"A domestic mine restarted in 2025, but output was withheld; the sole reported primary metal/oxide producer used imported feedstock.","value":"","unit":"","applied_rule":"Actual output and feedstock are displayed separately from announced capacity; no bucket applies.","condition_bucket":"emerging / insufficiently quantified","relative_effect":"Mitigation not yet credited as coverage","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Antimony chapter","as_of":"2025","confidence":"high","limitation":"Proprietary output prevents a supply-coverage calculation."},{"observation_id":"CR-O20","pathway_id":"CR-P05","metric_id":"CR-M06","driver_ids":"CR-D2|CR-D5","actor":"PRC / U.S.","stage":"export access and price","observation":"China banned antimony exports to the United States; the 2025 average price more than doubled to about $25 per pound.","value":"25","unit":"dollars per pound","applied_rule":"Observed disruption and price response are displayed; no universal condition bucket applies.","condition_bucket":"observed coercive leverage","relative_effect":"Strengthens PRC call","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Antimony chapter","as_of":"2025","confidence":"high","limitation":"Price is a market-wide indicator and not a direct defense-shortage measure."},{"observation_id":"CR-O21","pathway_id":"CR-P06","metric_id":"CR-M02","driver_ids":"CR-D1","actor":"PRC","stage":"tungsten mine","observation":"China produced 67,000 of 85,000 metric tons of estimated world mine output.","value":"78.8","unit":"percent","applied_rule":"PRC-controlled stage share: acute at 75% or greater.","condition_bucket":"acute","relative_effect":"Decisive PRC leverage","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Tungsten chapter","as_of":"2025 estimate","confidence":"high","limitation":"Mine share does not resolve intermediate conversion or inventory."},{"observation_id":"CR-O22","pathway_id":"CR-P06","metric_id":"CR-M04","driver_ids":"CR-D1|CR-D2","actor":"U.S.","stage":"tungsten supply","observation":"U.S. net import reliance was greater than 50% and no tungsten was mined commercially.","value":">50","unit":"percent","applied_rule":"Net import reliance: at least exposed at 50%–74.9%; exact value unavailable.","condition_bucket":"exposed","relative_effect":"Supports PRC edge","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Tungsten chapter","as_of":"2025 estimate","confidence":"high","limitation":"Secondary production and consumption were withheld."},{"observation_id":"CR-O23","pathway_id":"CR-P06","metric_id":"CR-M05","driver_ids":"CR-D1|CR-D2|CR-D3","actor":"U.S.","stage":"mine and conversion","observation":"The United States had zero operating mines but seven companies able to convert concentrate, APT, oxide, or scrap to downstream products.","value":"0 / 7","unit":"mines / converters","applied_rule":"Source count is acute at the mine stage; downstream source independence cannot be verified from company count alone.","condition_bucket":"acute upstream / unscored downstream","relative_effect":"Shows stage-specific weakness and strength","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Tungsten chapter","as_of":"2025","confidence":"high","limitation":"Converters may share imported feedstock and are not necessarily qualified for every defense form."},{"observation_id":"CR-O24","pathway_id":"CR-P06","metric_id":"CR-M06","driver_ids":"CR-D2|CR-D5","actor":"PRC / global","stage":"export controls and price","observation":"China imposed export controls on selected tungsten items and Rotterdam APT prices rose from $331 to $675 per metric ton unit during 2025.","value":"104","unit":"percent price increase","applied_rule":"Observed disruption and price response are displayed; no universal condition bucket applies.","condition_bucket":"observed leverage","relative_effect":"Strengthens PRC call","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Tungsten chapter","as_of":"2025","confidence":"high","limitation":"Price also reflects broader market conditions and is not a direct defense-shortage measure."},{"observation_id":"CR-O25","pathway_id":"CR-P07","metric_id":"CR-M02","driver_ids":"CR-D1","actor":"PRC","stage":"natural graphite mine","observation":"USGS estimated that China produced 82% of world natural graphite output in 2025.","value":"82","unit":"percent","applied_rule":"PRC-controlled stage share: acute at 75% or greater.","condition_bucket":"acute","relative_effect":"Decisive PRC leverage","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Graphite chapter","as_of":"2025 estimate","confidence":"high","limitation":"The country table is rounded; natural graphite mine share does not measure synthetic graphite or anode qualification."},{"observation_id":"CR-O26","pathway_id":"CR-P07","metric_id":"CR-M04","driver_ids":"CR-D1|CR-D2","actor":"U.S.","stage":"natural graphite supply","observation":"The United States produced no natural graphite and was 100% import reliant.","value":"100","unit":"percent","applied_rule":"Net import reliance: acute at 75% or greater.","condition_bucket":"acute","relative_effect":"Supports strong PRC edge","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Graphite chapter","as_of":"2025 estimate","confidence":"high","limitation":"Defense-related demand is not separated from commercial consumption."},{"observation_id":"CR-O27","pathway_id":"CR-P07","metric_id":"CR-M02","driver_ids":"CR-D2|CR-D3","actor":"PRC","stage":"active anode material imports","observation":"China supplied 55% of U.S. graphite active-anode-material imports; Indonesia supplied 31% and Korea 14%.","value":"55","unit":"percent","applied_rule":"PRC-controlled stage share: exposed at 50%–74.9%.","condition_bucket":"exposed","relative_effect":"Supports PRC edge","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, first eight months of 2025","as_of":"2025 partial year","confidence":"high","limitation":"Facility ownership can preserve Chinese control outside China; product grade and defense use are not isolated."},{"observation_id":"CR-O28","pathway_id":"CR-P07","metric_id":"CR-M06","driver_ids":"CR-D2|CR-D3|CR-D6","actor":"U.S.","stage":"spherical purified graphite","observation":"Two U.S. companies produced spherical purified graphite and another commissioned a qualification line.","value":"2+","unit":"operating producers","applied_rule":"Actual operating and qualification status is displayed; no universal condition bucket applies.","condition_bucket":"operating / scaling","relative_effect":"Mitigates but does not establish coverage","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Graphite chapter","as_of":"2025","confidence":"moderate-high","limitation":"Output, feedstock, qualification scope, and defense demand coverage were not disclosed."},{"observation_id":"CR-O29","pathway_id":"CR-P08","metric_id":"CR-M02","driver_ids":"CR-D2","actor":"PRC","stage":"titanium sponge","observation":"China produced 260,000 of 370,000 metric tons of estimated world titanium sponge.","value":"70.3","unit":"percent","applied_rule":"PRC-controlled stage share: exposed at 50%–74.9%.","condition_bucket":"exposed","relative_effect":"Shows global PRC scale","source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S07","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Titanium chapter","as_of":"2025 estimate","confidence":"high","limitation":"Global share does not equal U.S. import exposure to China."},{"observation_id":"CR-O30","pathway_id":"CR-P08","metric_id":"CR-M04","driver_ids":"CR-D2","actor":"U.S.","stage":"titanium sponge","observation":"The United States produced no sponge and was 100% import reliant.","value":"100","unit":"percent","applied_rule":"Net import reliance: acute at 75% or greater.","condition_bucket":"acute","relative_effect":"Shows domestic dependency","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Titanium chapter","as_of":"2025 estimate","confidence":"high","limitation":"Domestic downstream capability and allied access are separate observations."},{"observation_id":"CR-O31","pathway_id":"CR-P08","metric_id":"CR-M20","driver_ids":"CR-D2|CR-D5","actor":"U.S. / Japan","stage":"titanium sponge imports","observation":"Japan supplied 73% of U.S. titanium sponge imports through July 2025.","value":"73","unit":"percent of imports","applied_rule":"Observed allied supply is credited as accessible; no condition bucket applies.","condition_bucket":"verified accessible","relative_effect":"Materially mitigates direct PRC leverage","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Titanium chapter","as_of":"2025 through July","confidence":"high","limitation":"Spare capacity, wartime allocation, and transport resilience are not public."},{"observation_id":"CR-O32","pathway_id":"CR-P08","metric_id":"CR-M05","driver_ids":"CR-D2|CR-D3","actor":"U.S.","stage":"sponge and downstream titanium","observation":"The United States had zero operating sponge facilities but retained ingot and downstream product capability dependent on imported sponge and scrap.","value":"0","unit":"domestic sponge facilities","applied_rule":"Independent source count: acute at the domestic sponge stage.","condition_bucket":"acute domestic / mitigated allied","relative_effect":"Produces a contested rather than automatic PRC-lead call","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Titanium chapter","as_of":"2025","confidence":"high","limitation":"The number and qualification of downstream suppliers are proprietary."},{"observation_id":"CR-O33","pathway_id":"CR-P09","metric_id":"CR-M02","driver_ids":"CR-D1","actor":"U.S. / PRC","stage":"beryllium mine","observation":"The United States produced about 53.5% of estimated world beryllium mine output; China produced about 17.9%.","value":"17.9","unit":"percent PRC share","applied_rule":"PRC-controlled stage share: adequate at 10%–24.9%.","condition_bucket":"adequate","relative_effect":"Supports U.S. lead","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"Statecrafts calculation from USGS MCS 2026 mine table","as_of":"2025 estimate","confidence":"high","limitation":"Mine estimates include differing ore types and assumed beryllium content."},{"observation_id":"CR-O34","pathway_id":"CR-P09","metric_id":"CR-M04","driver_ids":"CR-D1|CR-D2|CR-D3","actor":"U.S.","stage":"integrated beryllium supply","observation":"The United States was a net exporter and operated an integrated mine-to-metal, oxide, and master-alloy chain.","value":"net exporter","unit":"","applied_rule":"Net import reliance: resilient below 10%; net exporter is stronger than the threshold.","condition_bucket":"resilient","relative_effect":"Supports U.S. lead","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Beryllium chapter","as_of":"2025 estimate","confidence":"high","limitation":"Some beryl and product forms are imported; company-level concentration remains."},{"observation_id":"CR-O35","pathway_id":"CR-P09","metric_id":"CR-M05","driver_ids":"CR-D1|CR-D2|CR-D3","actor":"U.S.","stage":"integrated producer","observation":"One company operated the principal domestic mine, hydroxide conversion, and downstream metal/alloy chain.","value":"1","unit":"integrated source","applied_rule":"Independent source count: exposed at one source.","condition_bucket":"exposed","relative_effect":"Identifies fragility inside the U.S. advantage","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Beryllium chapter","as_of":"2025","confidence":"high","limitation":"Separate facilities exist within the company, but independent ownership and process redundancy are limited."},{"observation_id":"CR-O36","pathway_id":"CR-P09","metric_id":"CR-M16","driver_ids":"CR-D5","actor":"U.S.","stage":"recycling","observation":"Recycling may account for 20% to 25% of U.S. beryllium consumption.","value":"20–25","unit":"percent of consumption","applied_rule":"Qualified secondary-supply coverage is unscored without grade- and demand-specific data.","condition_bucket":"unscored","relative_effect":"Adds resilience without inflating the rating","source_ids":"CR-S03","source_detail":"USGS MCS 2026, Beryllium chapter","as_of":"2025","confidence":"moderate","limitation":"Total quantity, grade, defense allocation, and old-versus-new scrap shares are not available."},{"observation_id":"CR-O37","pathway_id":"CR-P10","metric_id":"CR-M05","driver_ids":"CR-D3|CR-D4","actor":"U.S.","stage":"ammonium perchlorate","observation":"Public GAO evidence identified one U.S. company certified to provide the principal solid-rocket-motor propellant ingredient.","value":"1","unit":"certified source","applied_rule":"Independent source count: exposed at one source.","condition_bucket":"exposed","relative_effect":"Demonstrates U.S. single-source risk","source_ids":"CR-S17","source_detail":"GAO-18-45","as_of":"2017 finding, current mitigation incomplete publicly","confidence":"moderate","limitation":"The source is older; current supplier status and alternate qualifications require controlled confirmation."},{"observation_id":"CR-O38","pathway_id":"CR-P10","metric_id":"CR-M09","driver_ids":"CR-D3|CR-D5","actor":"U.S.","stage":"energetic qualification","observation":"A typical solid-rocket-motor propellant has about 25–30 ingredients; changing an ingredient requires retest, and a documented past alternate-source qualification took about two years.","value":"730","unit":"days, illustrative past case","applied_rule":"Second-source qualification: exposed at 366–1,825 days.","condition_bucket":"exposed","relative_effect":"Shows why nominal alternatives do not equal current supply","source_ids":"CR-S17","source_detail":"GAO-18-45","as_of":"historical case","confidence":"moderate","limitation":"Lead time varies by motor and ingredient; the past case is method evidence, not a universal current duration."},{"observation_id":"CR-O39","pathway_id":"CR-P10","metric_id":"CR-M06","driver_ids":"CR-D3|CR-D6","actor":"U.S.","stage":"solid rocket motor production","observation":"A January 2025 DPA award supported a new producer's energetics, casting, curing, quality assurance, assembly, and qualification work.","value":"14.3","unit":"million dollars awarded","applied_rule":"Awards and planned capacity are displayed separately from accepted output; no condition bucket applies.","condition_bucket":"active mitigation","relative_effect":"Does not yet prove current coverage","source_ids":"CR-S21|CR-S14","source_detail":"DoD award and FY2026 DPA budget exhibit","as_of":"2025","confidence":"high","limitation":"Accepted motor output, ingredient source diversity, and production capacity were not disclosed."},{"observation_id":"CR-O40","pathway_id":"CR-P10","metric_id":"CR-M21","driver_ids":"CR-D4","actor":"PRC","stage":"energetics supply chain","observation":"No comparable public PRC supplier, qualification, inventory, or output dataset was found for this pathway.","value":"","unit":"","applied_rule":"Missing data is unknown, never zero and never converted into a PRC disadvantage.","condition_bucket":"unknown","relative_effect":"Prevents unsupported relative adjudication","source_ids":"CR-S17|CR-S21","source_detail":"Public-source review through evidence cutoff","as_of":"2026-08-05","confidence":"moderate","limitation":"The gap could conceal either strength or weakness."}],"metric_contracts":[{"metric_id":"CR-M01","driver_id":"CR-D1|CR-D2|CR-D3","module":"stage_availability","metric_name":"Usable supply coverage","question":"Can accessible supply at this exact stage and specification cover scenario demand?","definition_or_formula":"Verified usable U.S. output plus verified-accessible allied output plus releasable qualified inventory, divided by demand in the same stage, specification, geography, scenario, and horizon.","unit":"ratio","direction":"higher_better","relationship_role":"required_dependency","horizons":"current","bucket_provenance":"provisional_analysis","condition_bucket_rule":"resilient >=1.25; adequate 1.00-1.249; thin 0.75-0.999; exposed 0.50-0.749; acute <0.50; unscored if denominator is not defensible","primary_source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S04|CR-S06|CR-S09|CR-S11","comparison_notes":"Compute separately for the PRC and U.S./verified allies. Do not compare if demand definitions differ materially; show low/base/high demand cases.","status":"applied_current_v1"},{"metric_id":"CR-M02","driver_id":"CR-D1|CR-D2|CR-D3","module":"stage_concentration","metric_name":"PRC-controlled stage share","question":"How much actual world output at the relevant stage is produced or operationally controlled by PRC entities?","definition_or_formula":"PRC-controlled actual output divided by world actual output for the exact material form and stage; ownership and facility location are retained separately.","unit":"percent","direction":"lower_better_for_us_resilience","relationship_role":"bottleneck","horizons":"current","bucket_provenance":"provisional_analysis","condition_bucket_rule":"resilient <10%; adequate 10-24.9%; thin 25-49.9%; exposed 50-74.9%; acute >=75%","primary_source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S07|CR-S08","comparison_notes":"This is an absolute U.S.-exposure condition, not a symmetric actor score. Report location-only and control-adjusted shares when they differ.","status":"applied_current_v1"},{"metric_id":"CR-M03","driver_id":"CR-D1|CR-D2|CR-D3","module":"stage_concentration","metric_name":"Country production HHI","question":"Is output diversified across countries at this exact stage?","definition_or_formula":"Sum of squared country shares of actual output, using fractional shares from 0 to 1.","unit":"index_0_to_1","direction":"lower_better","relationship_role":"redundancy","horizons":"current","bucket_provenance":"provisional_analysis","condition_bucket_rule":"resilient <0.15; adequate 0.15-0.249; thin 0.25-0.399; exposed 0.40-0.599; acute >=0.60","primary_source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S06|CR-S08|CR-S09","comparison_notes":"Calculate separately by mining, intermediate, refining, and qualified-output stage. Country diversity can overstate independence when ownership or feedstock is shared.","status":"applied_current_v1"},{"metric_id":"CR-M04","driver_id":"CR-D1|CR-D2|CR-D3","module":"trade_dependency","metric_name":"Net import reliance","question":"How dependent is the actor on net imports for apparent consumption?","definition_or_formula":"Net imports divided by apparent consumption, following the source commodity definition; retain negative values for net exporters but cap only for display.","unit":"percent","direction":"lower_better","relationship_role":"required_dependency","horizons":"current","bucket_provenance":"provisional_analysis","condition_bucket_rule":"resilient <10%; adequate 10-24.9%; thin 25-49.9%; exposed 50-74.9%; acute >=75%","primary_source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S10","comparison_notes":"Use only with matching material forms. Transshipment, embodied imports, grades, and stock changes can break symmetry between U.S. and PRC estimates.","status":"applied_current_v1"},{"metric_id":"CR-M05","driver_id":"CR-D1|CR-D2|CR-D3","module":"source_diversity","metric_name":"Independent qualified source count","question":"How many genuinely independent sources can deliver the required grade and quantity in the horizon?","definition_or_formula":"Count sources with verified output, defense qualification where required, accessible logistics, and no shared controlling owner, sole feedstock, facility, or inaccessible jurisdiction.","unit":"count","direction":"higher_better","relationship_role":"redundancy","horizons":"current","bucket_provenance":"provisional_analysis","condition_bucket_rule":"resilient >=4 sources across >=3 credible jurisdictions; adequate 3 across >=2; thin 2 across >=2; exposed 1; acute 0","primary_source_ids":"CR-S05|CR-S06|CR-S07|CR-S09|CR-S12","comparison_notes":"Apply to the same specification and demand. Nominal companies sharing a plant or upstream choke point count as one failure mode.","status":"applied_current_v1"},{"metric_id":"CR-M06","driver_id":"CR-D1|CR-D2|CR-D3","module":"delivered_output","metric_name":"Verified output versus announced capacity","question":"Is claimed capacity producing saleable material at the required stage and grade?","definition_or_formula":"Actual verified saleable output divided by announced or nameplate capacity for the same facility, period, form, and grade.","unit":"percent","direction":"context_dependent","relationship_role":"outcome_link","horizons":"current","bucket_provenance":"trend_only","condition_bucket_rule":"No universal condition bucket. Display actual output, nameplate capacity, utilization, feedstock constraint, and confidence separately.","primary_source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S06|CR-S07|CR-S08","comparison_notes":"High utilization can mean delivered output but little surge headroom; low utilization can mean headroom or a nonfunctional plant. It is diagnostic, not a stand-alone advantage score.","status":"applied_current_v1"},{"metric_id":"CR-M07","driver_id":"CR-D1|CR-D2","module":"resource_coupling","metric_name":"Byproduct or co-product dependence","question":"How much supply depends on the economics and output of another host commodity?","definition_or_formula":"Share of relevant output recovered as a byproduct or co-product, plus identification and concentration of host commodities.","unit":"percent","direction":"lower_better_all_else_equal","relationship_role":"bottleneck","horizons":"current","bucket_provenance":"provisional_analysis","condition_bucket_rule":"resilient <10%; adequate 10-24.9%; thin 25-49.9%; exposed 50-74.9%; acute >=75%","primary_source_ids":"CR-S01|CR-S03","comparison_notes":"A high share is not automatically bad if hosts are diverse and scalable. Use as exposure evidence and test host-market sensitivity before it can constrain a driver.","status":"applied_current_v1"},{"metric_id":"CR-M08","driver_id":"CR-D3","module":"qualification","metric_name":"Defense qualification status","question":"Can the source's product legally and technically enter the priority mission-system production line?","definition_or_formula":"Highest verified status for the exact source, material, process, specification, component, and use.","unit":"ordinal","direction":"higher_better","relationship_role":"required_dependency","horizons":"current","bucket_provenance":"provisional_analysis","condition_bucket_rule":"resilient production-qualified with sustained accepted lots; adequate qualified with limited-rate accepted output; thin qualification testing under way with representative output; exposed lab or pilot demonstration only; acute no viable qualified source or failed qualification","primary_source_ids":"CR-S12|CR-S14|CR-S16","comparison_notes":"Do not transfer qualification across grades, facilities, process changes, or mission uses without evidence. PRC military qualification may require bounded inference.","status":"applied_current_v1"},{"metric_id":"CR-M09","driver_id":"CR-D3","module":"qualification","metric_name":"Second-source qualification lead time","question":"How long would it take to qualify an alternate source after a disruption?","definition_or_formula":"Elapsed calendar time from authorized start with a viable source to production qualification and accepted deliverable output.","unit":"days","direction":"lower_better","relationship_role":"substitute","horizons":"current","bucket_provenance":"provisional_analysis","condition_bucket_rule":"resilient <=30 days; adequate 31-180; thin 181-365; exposed 366-1825; acute >1825 or no viable source","primary_source_ids":"CR-S12|CR-S13|CR-S14|CR-S16","comparison_notes":"Estimate ranges and identify redesign, test, certification, tooling, and security approvals. Announced sourcing agreements are not qualification.","status":"applied_current_v1"},{"metric_id":"CR-M10","driver_id":"CR-D4","module":"visibility","metric_name":"Priority-system country-of-origin coverage","question":"Can the analyst trace critical inputs to source countries through relevant supplier tiers?","definition_or_formula":"Priority-system critical line items with verified country of origin through the designated critical tier, divided by all designated critical line items.","unit":"percent","direction":"higher_better","relationship_role":"confidence_only","horizons":"current","bucket_provenance":"provisional_analysis","condition_bucket_rule":"resilient >=95%; adequate 85-94.9%; thin 70-84.9%; exposed 50-69.9%; acute <50%","primary_source_ids":"CR-S12","comparison_notes":"This conditions confidence and reveals exposure; it is not physical capacity. Supplier self-attestation and unknown origin remain separate categories.","status":"applied_current_v1"},{"metric_id":"CR-M11","driver_id":"CR-D4","module":"single_point_exposure","metric_name":"Adversary sole-source exposure","question":"What share of priority dependencies has one qualified source under PRC control and no usable buffer?","definition_or_formula":"Priority material-component dependencies with exactly one qualified PRC-controlled source and less than 30 days of usable coverage, divided by all mapped priority dependencies.","unit":"percent","direction":"lower_better","relationship_role":"bottleneck","horizons":"current","bucket_provenance":"provisional_analysis","condition_bucket_rule":"resilient 0%; adequate >0-5%; thin >5-15%; exposed >15-30%; acute >30%; unscored when CR-M21 mapping coverage is below 85%","primary_source_ids":"CR-S07|CR-S11|CR-S12","comparison_notes":"Requires a defined dependency universe and verified buffer denominator. Unknown-source dependencies are reported separately and cannot be presumed safe.","status":"applied_current_v1"},{"metric_id":"CR-M12","driver_id":"CR-D4","module":"shared_chokepoints","metric_name":"Shared choke-point breadth","question":"How many priority mission systems depend on the same non-substitutable source, facility, route, feedstock, tool, or process?","definition_or_formula":"Count distinct priority mission systems with a required dependency on the same failure node within the horizon.","unit":"system_count","direction":"lower_better","relationship_role":"bottleneck","horizons":"current","bucket_provenance":"provisional_analysis","condition_bucket_rule":"resilient 0 affected systems; adequate 1; thin 2-3; exposed 4-6; acute >=7","primary_source_ids":"CR-S12|CR-S14","comparison_notes":"Thresholds are initial triage only and require calibration to the size of the mission-system universe. Record consequence and demand, not count alone.","status":"applied_current_v1"},{"metric_id":"CR-M13","driver_id":"CR-D5","module":"inventory","metric_name":"Usable inventory coverage","question":"How long can qualified, accessible inventory meet scenario demand after supply stops?","definition_or_formula":"Verified releasable inventory at the required grade and location, divided by average daily scenario demand including loss and yield assumptions.","unit":"days","direction":"higher_better","relationship_role":"substitute","horizons":"current","bucket_provenance":"provisional_analysis","condition_bucket_rule":"resilient >=365 days; adequate 180-364; thin 90-179; exposed 30-89; acute <30; unscored if inventory or demand is unavailable","primary_source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S11","comparison_notes":"DLA transaction plans are not inventory levels. Commercial inventories and classified war reserve stocks require explicit coverage and confidence labels.","status":"applied_current_v1"},{"metric_id":"CR-M14","driver_id":"CR-D5","module":"second_sourcing","metric_name":"Qualified second-source coverage","question":"What share of priority dependencies has a genuinely independent qualified alternate able to deliver in the horizon?","definition_or_formula":"Priority dependencies with at least one independent qualified and accessible alternate meeting required quantity, divided by all mapped priority dependencies.","unit":"percent","direction":"higher_better","relationship_role":"redundancy","horizons":"current","bucket_provenance":"provisional_analysis","condition_bucket_rule":"resilient >=95%; adequate 85-94.9%; thin 70-84.9%; exposed 50-69.9%; acute <50%; unscored when CR-M21 mapping coverage is below 85%","primary_source_ids":"CR-S12|CR-S13|CR-S14|CR-S16","comparison_notes":"Measure by horizon and quantity; a paper alternate or one dependent on the same feedstock is not an independent second source.","status":"applied_current_v1"},{"metric_id":"CR-M15","driver_id":"CR-D5","module":"substitution","metric_name":"Substitute readiness","question":"Can an alternate material or design replace the constrained input without unacceptable mission loss?","definition_or_formula":"Highest demonstrated readiness of a substitute for the exact mission use, including qualification, performance penalty, production scale, and redesign burden.","unit":"ordinal","direction":"higher_better","relationship_role":"substitute","horizons":"current","bucket_provenance":"provisional_analysis","condition_bucket_rule":"resilient drop-in qualified and scaled; adequate qualified with manageable performance or quantity limit; thin representative demonstration with qualification plan; exposed laboratory option or major redesign; acute no viable substitute","primary_source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S13|CR-S16","comparison_notes":"Record mass, thermal, reliability, signature, cost, schedule, and mission-performance penalties. A scientific possibility is not an operational substitute.","status":"applied_current_v1"},{"metric_id":"CR-M16","driver_id":"CR-D5","module":"recycling","metric_name":"Qualified secondary-supply coverage","question":"How much scenario demand can verified recycled or recovered material meet at the required grade?","definition_or_formula":"Qualified secondary output available to the actor in the horizon, divided by demand for the same material form and specification.","unit":"ratio","direction":"higher_better","relationship_role":"parallel_contributor","horizons":"current","bucket_provenance":"provisional_analysis","condition_bucket_rule":"resilient >=1.25; adequate 1.00-1.249; thin 0.75-0.999; exposed 0.50-0.749; acute <0.50; unscored without a denominator","primary_source_ids":"CR-S03|CR-S13|CR-S16","comparison_notes":"Do not use gross collection or theoretical recoverability. Account for scrap availability, yield, contamination, energy, and qualification.","status":"applied_current_v1"},{"metric_id":"CR-M17","driver_id":"CR-D6","module":"project_pipeline","metric_name":"Project delivery credibility","question":"How much evidence supports a project's ability to deliver qualified output by the horizon?","definition_or_formula":"Highest verified maturity for a named project, retaining finance, permits, construction, feedstock, workforce, commissioning, and qualification as separate milestones.","unit":"ordinal","direction":"higher_better","relationship_role":"enabler","horizons":"current","bucket_provenance":"provisional_analysis","condition_bucket_rule":"resilient sustained qualified output; adequate commissioning with secured inputs and qualification on schedule; thin construction with finance and core permits secured; exposed definitive feasibility with material milestones open; acute announcement, exploration, or no credible delivery path","primary_source_ids":"CR-S06|CR-S09|CR-S14|CR-S15|CR-S16","comparison_notes":"Maturity does not measure quantity. Capacity enters a horizon scenario only with a separate output estimate and schedule range.","status":"applied_current_v1"},{"metric_id":"CR-M18","driver_id":"CR-D6","module":"recovery","metric_name":"Disruption recovery time","question":"How quickly can a failed critical stage restore accepted output?","definition_or_formula":"Calendar time from disruption to sustained accepted output at the scenario-required rate, including repair, workforce, feedstock, restart, and requalification.","unit":"days","direction":"lower_better","relationship_role":"outcome_link","horizons":"current","bucket_provenance":"provisional_analysis","condition_bucket_rule":"resilient <=30 days; adequate 31-180; thin 181-365; exposed 366-1825; acute >1825 or nonrecoverable","primary_source_ids":"CR-S05|CR-S12|CR-S14","comparison_notes":"Use exercise, outage, restart, or audited schedule evidence where available; otherwise show a range and identify untested assumptions.","status":"applied_current_v1"},{"metric_id":"CR-M19","driver_id":"CR-D6","module":"capacity_expansion","metric_name":"Time to new qualified output","question":"How long until a new source delivers accepted output rather than announced capacity?","definition_or_formula":"Calendar time from assessment date to sustained qualified output, including permitting, finance, construction, commissioning, process stabilization, and qualification.","unit":"days","direction":"lower_better","relationship_role":"outcome_link","horizons":"current","bucket_provenance":"provisional_analysis","condition_bucket_rule":"resilient <=365 days; adequate 366-730; thin 731-1095; exposed 1096-1825; acute >1825 or no credible path","primary_source_ids":"CR-S06|CR-S09|CR-S14|CR-S15|CR-S16","comparison_notes":"Report schedule confidence and milestone slippage. Budget authority and awards are leading indicators only.","status":"applied_current_v1"},{"metric_id":"CR-M20","driver_id":"CR-D1|CR-D2|CR-D3|CR-D5","module":"allied_access","metric_name":"Allied access status","question":"May allied output actually be credited to the U.S.-allied base case in this scenario and horizon?","definition_or_formula":"Categorical eligibility based on legal authority, exportability, qualification, allocation, logistics, and timing: verified_accessible; horizon_feasible; nominal; unavailable.","unit":"categorical","direction":"eligibility_not_score","relationship_role":"substitute","horizons":"current","bucket_provenance":"ontology_rule","condition_bucket_rule":"No condition bucket. Verified accessible enters the base case; horizon feasible enters only the named milestone case; nominal is displayed without credit; unavailable is excluded.","primary_source_ids":"CR-S09|CR-S10","comparison_notes":"Apply to actual spare or allocated output, not total allied production. Preserve national owner and destination commitments to prevent double counting.","status":"applied_current_v1"},{"metric_id":"CR-M21","driver_id":"CR-D4","module":"visibility","metric_name":"Critical-dependency mapping coverage","question":"How much of the declared priority dependency universe has a complete, source-backed stage map?","definition_or_formula":"Mapped dependencies with material, stage, specification, supplier, ownership, country, qualification, and mission-use fields complete, divided by all declared priority dependencies.","unit":"percent","direction":"higher_better","relationship_role":"confidence_only","horizons":"current","bucket_provenance":"provisional_analysis","condition_bucket_rule":"resilient >=95%; adequate 85-94.9%; thin 70-84.9%; exposed 50-69.9%; acute <50%","primary_source_ids":"CR-S12","comparison_notes":"Never treat unmapped dependencies as non-PRC or resilient. This metric governs assessment confidence, not advantage by 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Energy Agency","title":"Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026","date_or_version":"2026","evidence_tier":"T2","directness":"method_documented_intergovernmental_analysis","actor_coverage":"World / major producers and refiners","update_cadence":"annual","primary_uses":"Demand/supply outlook; refining concentration; project and policy context","known_limitations":"Energy-transition focus does not map directly to defense specifications or demand; some underlying inputs are modeled or commercial","url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026/executive-summary"},{"source_id":"CR-S09","pilot":"critical_resources","publisher":"Geoscience Australia","title":"Australia's Identified Mineral Resources 2025","date_or_version":"2025","evidence_tier":"T1","directness":"official_statistical_and_geoscience_data","actor_coverage":"Australia","update_cadence":"annual","primary_uses":"Allied resources, reserves, production, projects, and national baselines","known_limitations":"National potential is not evidence of U.S. legal access, spare output, export allocation, transport, or defense qualification","url":"https://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/minerals/aimr"},{"source_id":"CR-S10","pilot":"critical_resources","publisher":"U.S. International Trade Commission / U.S. Census Bureau","title":"DataWeb and DataWeb Query API","date_or_version":"current_service","evidence_tier":"T1","directness":"official_transactional_trade_data","actor_coverage":"United States / trading partners","update_cadence":"monthly_with_revisions","primary_uses":"HTS-level value and quantity by partner; monthly trade trends; reproducible queries","known_limitations":"Account/API key required; HS codes can mix forms and grades; origin, transshipment, embodied content, and defense use may be unclear","url":"https://www.usitc.gov/applications/dataweb/about"},{"source_id":"CR-S11","pilot":"critical_resources","publisher":"Defense Logistics Agency Strategic Materials","title":"Annual Materials Plan archive","date_or_version":"annual_fiscal_year","evidence_tier":"T2","directness":"official_transaction_plan","actor_coverage":"United States","update_cadence":"annual","primary_uses":"Maximum planned acquisitions and disposals; visible stockpile program actions","known_limitations":"Not total holdings, release plan, classified inventory, demand, or days of coverage; planned action may not execute","url":"https://www.dla.mil/Strategic-Materials/Reports/Annual-Materials-Plan-Archive/"},{"source_id":"CR-S12","pilot":"critical_resources","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","title":"Defense Industrial Base: Actions Needed to Address Risks Posed by Dependence on Foreign Suppliers","date_or_version":"GAO-25-107283 / 2025-07-24","evidence_tier":"T2","directness":"audited_oversight","actor_coverage":"United States / foreign suppliers","update_cadence":"one_time_with_recommendation_updates","primary_uses":"Tier-n visibility; country-of-origin limitations; scope of DoD supplier network; governance gaps","known_limitations":"Does not provide a complete bill of materials or quantify all dependencies; findings reflect reviewed systems and data","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-107283"},{"source_id":"CR-S13","pilot":"critical_resources","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","title":"Critical Minerals: Reducing U.S. Import Reliance with Substitution and Recycling Technologies","date_or_version":"GAO-26-108687 / 2026-07-22","evidence_tier":"T2","directness":"audited_technology_assessment","actor_coverage":"United States / selected minerals and technologies","update_cadence":"one_time","primary_uses":"Substitution and recycling readiness; technical and adoption barriers; public mitigation evidence","known_limitations":"Selected technologies and cases; research activity is not qualification or scaled defense output","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-108687"},{"source_id":"CR-S14","pilot":"critical_resources","publisher":"U.S. Department of Defense Comptroller","title":"Defense Production Act Purchases budget exhibit, FY2026 President's Budget","date_or_version":"FY2026","evidence_tier":"T2","directness":"official_budget_and_program_record","actor_coverage":"United States / named projects and supply chains","update_cadence":"annual","primary_uses":"Funding intent; project names; mining, processing, microelectronics, magnets, energetics, tooling, and industrial-base interventions","known_limitations":"Budget authority, request, obligation, and award are not commissioned capacity or accepted output; schedules can change","url":"https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/FY2026/budget_justification/pdfs/02_Procurement/PROC_DPAP_PB_2026.pdf"},{"source_id":"CR-S15","pilot":"critical_resources","publisher":"U.S. Department of the Treasury / USAspending","title":"USAspending API","date_or_version":"current_service","evidence_tier":"T1","directness":"official_transactional_award_data","actor_coverage":"United States / award recipients","update_cadence":"frequent_with_revisions","primary_uses":"Awards, obligations, recipients, place of performance, and transaction history","known_limitations":"Award descriptions and industry codes do not establish physical milestones, qualification, ownership depth, or delivered output","url":"https://api.usaspending.gov/"},{"source_id":"CR-S16","pilot":"critical_resources","publisher":"U.S. Department of Energy","title":"Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains programs and FCAB publications","date_or_version":"living_program_pages","evidence_tier":"T2","directness":"official_program_and_technical_publications","actor_coverage":"United States / partners","update_cadence":"irregular","primary_uses":"Battery materials, cells, manufacturing projects, awards, strategies, and technical roadmaps","known_limitations":"Plans and awards are enablers; defense-specific grades, allocation, qualification, and output need independent verification","url":"https://www.energy.gov/mesc/manufacturing"},{"source_id":"CR-S17","pilot":"critical_resources","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","title":"Solid Rocket Motors: DOD and Industry Are Addressing Challenges to Minimize Supply Concerns","date_or_version":"GAO-18-45 / 2017","evidence_tier":"T2","directness":"audited_oversight","actor_coverage":"United States","update_cadence":"one_time_with_recommendation_updates","primary_uses":"Historical evidence on solid-rocket-motor ingredients, qualification, supplier concentration, disruption, and workforce failure modes","known_limitations":"Older evidence; supplier structure, programs, and corrective actions may have changed and require current corroboration","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-18-45"},{"source_id":"CR-S18","pilot":"critical_resources","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","title":"Critical Materials: Action Needed to Implement Requirements That Reduce Supply Chain Risks","date_or_version":"GAO-24-107176 / 2024-09-12","evidence_tier":"T2","directness":"audited_oversight_and_statutory_review","actor_coverage":"United States / adversary-source restrictions","update_cadence":"one_time_with_recommendation_updates","primary_uses":"Defense uses, stockpile governance, procurement restrictions, and known dependence on China for rare earths and other critical materials","known_limitations":"Does not disclose stockpile holdings, defense demand, program-level dependencies, or current qualified output","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-107176"},{"source_id":"CR-S19","pilot":"critical_resources","publisher":"U.S. Department of Defense","title":"DOD Looks to Establish Mine-to-Magnet Supply Chain for Rare Earth Materials","date_or_version":"2024-03-11","evidence_tier":"T2","directness":"official_program_and_capability_record","actor_coverage":"United States / partner context","update_cadence":"one_time_with_program_updates","primary_uses":"Defense mission uses; mine-to-magnet stages; qualified domestic magnet production; named awards and operating capabilities","known_limitations":"Some capacity statements were projections when published and require later operating evidence; defense demand coverage is not disclosed","url":"https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3700059/dod-looks-to-establish-mine-to-magnet-supply-chain-for-rare-earth-materials/"},{"source_id":"CR-S20","pilot":"critical_resources","publisher":"U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission / MP Materials","title":"MP Materials 2025 Form 10-K","date_or_version":"filed_2026","evidence_tier":"T2","directness":"regulated_company_filing","actor_coverage":"United States / company operations","update_cadence":"annual_and_quarterly","primary_uses":"Actual NdPr oxide output; commissioned metal and alloy steps; start of commercial-equipment NdFeB manufacturing; customer and feedstock disclosures","known_limitations":"Company-specific filing; projected capacity is not accepted defense output and qualification coverage is not disclosed","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1801368/000180136826000008/mp-20251231.htm"},{"source_id":"CR-S21","pilot":"critical_resources","publisher":"U.S. Department of Defense","title":"Department of Defense Awards $14.3 Million to Expand Sources of Solid Rocket Motors","date_or_version":"2025-01-07","evidence_tier":"T2","directness":"official_award_and_program_record","actor_coverage":"United States","update_cadence":"one_time_with_program_updates","primary_uses":"New solid-rocket-motor source; energetics, casting, curing, quality assurance, assembly, and qualification work","known_limitations":"Award and planned expansion do not disclose accepted output, ingredient-source diversity, schedule performance, or demand coverage","url":"https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4022917/department-of-defense-awards-143-million-to-expand-sources-of-solid-rocket-moto/"},{"source_id":"CR-S22","pilot":"critical_resources","publisher":"U.S. Department of Defense","title":"Department of Defense Awards $6.2 Million to Sustain Critical Production of Tungsten","date_or_version":"2025-07-17","evidence_tier":"T2","directness":"official_award_and_program_record","actor_coverage":"United States / allied project context","update_cadence":"one_time_with_program_updates","primary_uses":"Current tungsten industrial-base intervention and domestic production sustainment","known_limitations":"Award value and purpose do not establish mine output, qualification, independent feedstock, or demand coverage","url":"https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4252264/department-of-defense-awards-62-million-to-sustain-critical-production-of-tungs/"}]}