{"number":1,"slug":"air-dominance","title":"Air dominance","score":0.75,"position":68.8,"rating":"U.S. edge","tone":"us-edge","confidence":"Moderate","call":"The United States retains an edge in low-observable systems, integration, and advanced training, but the edge is conditional on surviving the first salvo and generating sorties from a missile-threatened theater.","reasoning":["Platform quality is not the same as theater air dominance; tankers, bases, munitions, command links, and repair capacity are part of the weapon system.","Collaborative Combat Aircraft and open autonomy architectures offer a credible path to affordable mass, but they are still moving from test milestones toward operational scale."],"subcategories":[{"name":"Low-observable systems","score":2.0,"position":100.0,"rating":"U.S. lead","tone":"us-lead","rationale":"A deep U.S. design, production, and integration base remains a meaningful advantage."},{"name":"Training and joint integration","score":1.0,"position":75.0,"rating":"U.S. edge","tone":"us-edge","rationale":"Large joint and combined exercises preserve an edge, although readiness pressure constrains repetitions."},{"name":"Basing and tanker survivability","score":-1.0,"position":25.0,"rating":"Competitor edge","tone":"competitor-edge","rationale":"Concentrated runways, fuel, and high-value support aircraft are exposed to long-range attack."},{"name":"Affordable combat mass","score":0.0,"position":50.0,"rating":"Contested","tone":"contested","rationale":"CCA progress is real, but operational volume, sustainment, and autonomy performance are not yet proven at scale."}],"policy_label":"Preserve the edge","policy":"Make the entire sortie-generation chain survive the opening attack: disperse and harden fuel and maintenance, expand rapid runway repair and deception, protect tankers, and buy collaborative aircraft plus air-to-air and stand-off weapons as one capacity package. Keep autonomy software modular so competition continues after airframes enter service.","indicators":["Combat-coded aircraft mission-capable rates and sortie generation under dispersal","CCA operational units, validated mission software, and unit cost at production rate","Days of preferred munitions available at theater demand"],"sources":[{"title":"2026 National Defense Strategy","url":"https://media.defense.gov/2026/Jan/23/2003864773/-1/-1/0/2026-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY.PDF","kind":"Strategy","date":"Jan 2026"},{"title":"2025 Military and Security Developments Involving the PRC","url":"https://media.defense.gov/2025/Dec/23/2003849070/-1/-1/1/ANNUAL-REPORT-TO-CONGRESS-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA-2025.PDF","kind":"Threat assessment","date":"Dec 2025"},{"title":"Air Force Advances Future Air Superiority With CCA Contracts","url":"https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/4520575/air-force-advances-future-of-air-superiority-with-cca-contracts/","kind":"Fielding evidence","date":"Jun 2026"},{"title":"Military Readiness: Challenges Across Air, Sea, Ground, and Space","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-108888","kind":"Oversight","date":"Mar 2026"}]}