{"number":2,"slug":"maritime-undersea","title":"Maritime & undersea","score":-0.25,"position":43.8,"rating":"Contested","tone":"contested","confidence":"Moderate","call":"This is a split decision: U.S. undersea quality and alliance access remain powerful, while regional fleet mass, commercial shipbuilding depth, repair throughput, and production timelines make the overall contest roughly even and moving in the wrong direction.","reasoning":["Submarines can create disproportionate denial, but delayed maintenance or construction removes scarce hulls that cannot be replaced quickly.","The pacing competitor's proximity and shipbuilding scale create a local quantity advantage that global U.S. fleet totals do not erase."],"subcategories":[{"name":"Attack-submarine capability","score":2.0,"position":100.0,"rating":"U.S. lead","tone":"us-lead","rationale":"Quieting, crews, weapons, and allied access remain a high-value U.S. advantage."},{"name":"Regional fleet mass","score":-1.0,"position":25.0,"rating":"Competitor edge","tone":"competitor-edge","rationale":"The most demanding scenario occurs near the competitor's bases and inside its land-based coverage."},{"name":"Shipbuilding and repair","score":-2.0,"position":0.0,"rating":"Competitor lead","tone":"competitor-lead","rationale":"Persistent schedule, workforce, infrastructure, and coordination problems limit replacement and regeneration."},{"name":"Uncrewed maritime systems","score":0.0,"position":50.0,"rating":"Contested","tone":"contested","rationale":"Promising demonstrations have not yet become a resilient, sustained operational fleet."}],"policy_label":"Regain the edge","policy":"Treat shipbuilding and repair throughput as a combat capability. Create one Navy-wide investment and capacity picture, stabilize multiyear workloads, expand skilled trades and supplier tooling, qualify allied repair nodes, and field crewed–uncrewed maritime packages whose communications and maintenance are exercised in theater.","indicators":["On-time submarine and surface-ship delivery by class","Maintenance delay days and deployable hull availability","Qualified dry-dock, supplier, and allied repair capacity"],"sources":[{"title":"2025 Military and Security Developments Involving the PRC","url":"https://media.defense.gov/2025/Dec/23/2003849070/-1/-1/1/ANNUAL-REPORT-TO-CONGRESS-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA-2025.PDF","kind":"Threat assessment","date":"Dec 2025"},{"title":"China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities","url":"https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/RL/PDF/RL33153/RL33153.280.pdf","kind":"Congressional analysis","date":"Dec 2025"},{"title":"Shipbuilding and Repair: Navy Needs a Strategic Industrial-Base Approach","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-106286","kind":"Oversight","date":"Feb 2025"},{"title":"FY2026 Defense Budget Overview","url":"https://comptroller.war.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/FY2026/FY2026_Budget_Request_Overview_Book.pdf","kind":"Budget","date":"Jun 2025"}]}