{"schema_version":"1.0","status":"published_trend_layer","public_launch":true,"public_route":"/diplomacy-coalitions/trends","public_api":"/api/v1/trends/diplomacy-coalitions","domain":"diplomacy-coalitions","domain_title":"Diplomacy & Coalitions","domain_number":3,"as_of":"2026-08-14","current_position_source":"docs/focuses/diplomacy-coalitions/domain-assessment.json","horizon":{"months":24,"through":"2028-08-14","basis":"Observed relative movement is carried forward only when current decisions, institutions, resources, partner behavior, and executable delivery support persistence. Announcements, memberships, and meeting volume are discounted until roles, implementation, or effects are observed.","through_display":"August 14, 2028"},"review_schedule":{"six_month":"2027-02-14","twelve_month":"2027-08-14","event_driven":"Review earlier after a core alliance trigger, major institutional entry or exit, aid or arrears reversal, access denial, matched commitment-delivery release, or other evidence capable of changing direction or confidence.","six_month_display":"February 14, 2027","twelve_month_display":"August 14, 2027"},"method":{"observed":"Observed trajectory describes relative movement already visible in matched reach, access, role acceptance, commitment performance, activation, delivery, stewardship, bargaining, or durability evidence.","outlook":"The two-year outlook adjusts the observed direction for executing initiatives, partner agency, institutional counterforces, delivery lags, and revision triggers.","overview_rule":"A future overview arrow is eligible only for a moderate- or high-confidence outlook attached to a scored current position. Low confidence and insufficient evidence produce no arrow.","position_rule":"The published current position remains frozen. Direction does not move the marker, create a forecasted position, or establish a strategic outcome."},"headline":"Where is diplomatic capacity converting into more durable institutional and coalition power?","summary":"The clearest relative movement is toward the PRC-centered system in institutional stewardship and, more narrowly, commitment credibility as current U.S. withdrawals and discontinuities narrow existing advantages. U.S./partner systems continue to demonstrate activation and delivery in selected security cases, but unmatched triggers and offsetting PRC institutions prevent a net two-year call in most categories.","items":[{"id":"DC-D01","title":"Diplomatic reach & expertise","detail_url":"/diplomacy-coalitions/review#dc-d01","current_position":"Contested","current_confidence":"low","observed":{"direction":"toward_prc","confidence":"low","summary":"Near-equal global formal footprints coexist with a clearer recent PRC gain in the Indo-Pacific; missing matched staffing and expertise series prevent a global moderate-confidence call.","evidence":[{"text":"The 2024 Global Diplomacy Index records near-equal overall U.S. and PRC formal networks but materially different regional distributions; it measures posts, not mission capability.","source_ids":["DC-S01","DC-S02","DC-S96"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S01","title":"Global Diplomacy Index 2024: About and methodology","url":"https://globaldiplomacyindex.lowyinstitute.org/about","publisher":"Lowy Institute","date":"2024 release; data collected July-November 2023","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Lowy Institute"},{"id":"DC-S02","title":"Global Diplomacy Index 2024: Country ranking","url":"https://www.globaldiplomacyindex.lowyinstitute.org/country_ranking","publisher":"Lowy Institute","date":"2024 release","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Lowy Institute"},{"id":"DC-S96","title":"Global Diplomacy Index 2024: Key findings","url":"https://globaldiplomacyindex.lowyinstitute.org/key_findings","publisher":"Lowy Institute","date":"2024 release; data collected July-November 2023","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Lowy Institute"}]},{"text":"The 2025 Asia Power Index reports PRC diplomatic influence at a regional high while the U.S. score fell to its lowest level in that series.","source_ids":["DC-S03","DC-S97"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S03","title":"Asia Power Index methodology","url":"https://power.lowyinstitute.org/methodology/","publisher":"Lowy Institute","date":"2025 edition","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Lowy Institute"},{"id":"DC-S97","title":"2025 Asia Power Index: China gains advantage","url":"https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/2025-asia-power-index-report/china-gains-advantage","publisher":"Lowy Institute","date":"2025 release","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Lowy Institute"}]},{"text":"A 2026 biographical study documents professionalization among senior PRC diplomats, but supplies no matched post-level readiness or outcome denominator.","source_ids":["DC-S98"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S98","title":"Who Are China's Diplomats? Beyond Wolf Warrior Hype","url":"https://isd.georgetown.edu/publications/report-who-are-chinas-diplomats-beyond-wolf-warrior-hype/","publisher":"Georgetown University Institute for the Study of Diplomacy","date":"2026-02-13","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Georgetown University"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"←","label":"Toward PRC advantage","css_class":"toward-prc"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"outlook":{"direction":"toward_prc","confidence":"low","summary":"PRC regional momentum could continue, but the two-year global direction remains sensitive to unobserved staffing, expertise, access quality, and whether U.S. regional influence stabilizes.","current_efforts":[{"text":"PRC diplomatic professionalization and a large formal network provide an executing base for continued regional engagement.","source_ids":["DC-S96","DC-S98"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S96","title":"Global Diplomacy Index 2024: Key findings","url":"https://globaldiplomacyindex.lowyinstitute.org/key_findings","publisher":"Lowy Institute","date":"2024 release; data collected July-November 2023","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Lowy Institute"},{"id":"DC-S98","title":"Who Are China's Diplomats? Beyond Wolf Warrior Hype","url":"https://isd.georgetown.edu/publications/report-who-are-chinas-diplomats-beyond-wolf-warrior-hype/","publisher":"Georgetown University Institute for the Study of Diplomacy","date":"2026-02-13","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Georgetown University"}]},{"text":"The U.S. retains formal language-training requirements and extensive regional networks that could arrest deterioration if priority posts are filled and used effectively.","source_ids":["DC-S99","DC-S123"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S99","title":"13 FAM 201.1: Language training general information","url":"https://fam.state.gov/FAM/13FAM/13FAM020101.html","publisher":"U.S. Department of State","date":"updated 2025-07-16","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"U.S. Department of State"},{"id":"DC-S123","title":"United States profile: Southeast Asia Influence Index","url":"https://influence.lowyinstitute.org/profile/united-states/","publisher":"Lowy Institute","date":"2025 release","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Lowy Institute"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"Global post totals remain close and regional strengths point in opposite directions.","source_ids":["DC-S02","DC-S96"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S02","title":"Global Diplomacy Index 2024: Country ranking","url":"https://www.globaldiplomacyindex.lowyinstitute.org/country_ranking","publisher":"Lowy Institute","date":"2024 release","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Lowy Institute"},{"id":"DC-S96","title":"Global Diplomacy Index 2024: Key findings","url":"https://globaldiplomacyindex.lowyinstitute.org/key_findings","publisher":"Lowy Institute","date":"2024 release; data collected July-November 2023","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Lowy Institute"}]},{"text":"Neither system publishes a matched series for filled positions, language and area expertise, working-level access, crisis-channel performance, or warning conversion.","source_ids":["DC-S01","DC-S98","DC-S100"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S01","title":"Global Diplomacy Index 2024: About and methodology","url":"https://globaldiplomacyindex.lowyinstitute.org/about","publisher":"Lowy Institute","date":"2024 release; data collected July-November 2023","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Lowy Institute"},{"id":"DC-S98","title":"Who Are China's Diplomats? Beyond Wolf Warrior Hype","url":"https://isd.georgetown.edu/publications/report-who-are-chinas-diplomats-beyond-wolf-warrior-hype/","publisher":"Georgetown University Institute for the Study of Diplomacy","date":"2026-02-13","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Georgetown University"},{"id":"DC-S100","title":"Persistent Staffing and Foreign Language Gaps Compromise Diplomatic Readiness","url":"https://www.gao.gov/assets/a123400.html","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"GAO-09-1046T; 2009-09-24","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"U.S. Government Accountability Office"}]}],"revision_triggers":["A new matched global diplomacy index release","Comparable priority-post staffing and expertise data","Repeated crisis-channel or warning-conversion outcomes"],"display_on_overview":false,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"←","label":"Toward PRC advantage","css_class":"toward-prc"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"position":50},{"id":"DC-D02","title":"Informal reach & access","detail_url":"/diplomacy-coalitions/review#dc-d02","current_position":"Contested","current_confidence":"low","observed":{"direction":"insufficient_basis","confidence":"low","summary":"Both systems operate large non-state and elite networks, but the best PRC party-contact series is old and U.S. exchange evaluations are not a matched access panel.","evidence":[{"text":"The systematic CPC party-outreach dataset documents wide cross-party contact through 2017, with many relationships observed only once or twice.","source_ids":["DC-S101"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S101","title":"Struggle for Minds and Influence: The Chinese Communist Party's Global Outreach","url":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqaa028","publisher":"International Studies Quarterly","date":"2020; open-access article","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Oxford University Press"}]},{"text":"The U.S. IVLP reports a long-running network of more than 230,000 participants, while evaluation syntheses show heterogeneous and often self-reported effects.","source_ids":["DC-S103","DC-S104"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S103","title":"International Visitor Leadership Program","url":"https://exchanges.state.gov/non-us/program/international-visitor-leadership-program-ivlp","publisher":"U.S. Department of State Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs","date":"current through 2026","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"U.S. Department of State"},{"id":"DC-S104","title":"Evaluating and Measuring the Impact of Citizen Diplomacy","url":"https://www.iie.org/publications/evaluating-measuring-impact-of-citizen-diplomacy/","publisher":"Institute of International Education","date":"current publication page","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Institute of International Education"}]},{"text":"Current Southeast Asian specialist perceptions and partner surveys do not measure reciprocal informal access with a common actor cohort.","source_ids":["DC-S35","DC-S127"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S35","title":"The State of Southeast Asia: 2026 Survey Report","url":"https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/The-State-of-Southeast-Asia-2026-Survey-Final-Single.pdf","publisher":"ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute"},{"id":"DC-S127","title":"BRI From the Ground Up: Leaders from 129 countries evaluate a decade of Beijing's signature initiative","url":"https://docs.aiddata.org/reports/bri-from-the-ground-up/full-report.html","publisher":"AidData at William & Mary","date":"2024-03-26","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"AidData"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"?","label":"Insufficient basis","css_class":"insufficient"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"outlook":{"direction":"insufficient_basis","confidence":"low","summary":"Ongoing party, exchange, business, and civil-society engagement will expand contact, but no evidence supports a defensible net direction in privileged, recurring, usable access.","current_efforts":[{"text":"PRC party diplomacy supplies a taskable channel to ruling and opposition parties across many political systems.","source_ids":["DC-S101","DC-S102"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S101","title":"Struggle for Minds and Influence: The Chinese Communist Party's Global Outreach","url":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqaa028","publisher":"International Studies Quarterly","date":"2020; open-access article","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Oxford University Press"},{"id":"DC-S102","title":"Assessing Effects of China's Party Diplomacy vis-a-vis Southeast Asia","url":"https://iis.fudan.edu.cn/c5/ef/c6852a640495/page.htm","publisher":"Asian Perspective via Fudan University","date":"2023","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Asian Perspective"}]},{"text":"U.S. professional and citizen exchanges sustain large alumni networks and multiple non-government channels.","source_ids":["DC-S103","DC-S104"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S103","title":"International Visitor Leadership Program","url":"https://exchanges.state.gov/non-us/program/international-visitor-leadership-program-ivlp","publisher":"U.S. Department of State Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs","date":"current through 2026","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"U.S. Department of State"},{"id":"DC-S104","title":"Evaluating and Measuring the Impact of Citizen Diplomacy","url":"https://www.iie.org/publications/evaluating-measuring-impact-of-citizen-diplomacy/","publisher":"Institute of International Education","date":"current publication page","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Institute of International Education"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"Contact frequency, reciprocity, policy access, continuity, and use in consequential decisions are not measured symmetrically.","source_ids":["DC-S101","DC-S104"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S101","title":"Struggle for Minds and Influence: The Chinese Communist Party's Global Outreach","url":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqaa028","publisher":"International Studies Quarterly","date":"2020; open-access article","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Oxford University Press"},{"id":"DC-S104","title":"Evaluating and Measuring the Impact of Citizen Diplomacy","url":"https://www.iie.org/publications/evaluating-measuring-impact-of-citizen-diplomacy/","publisher":"Institute of International Education","date":"current publication page","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Institute of International Education"}]},{"text":"Partner motives and reported program benefits are selected and do not establish comparative influence or privileged access.","source_ids":["DC-S102","DC-S127"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S102","title":"Assessing Effects of China's Party Diplomacy vis-a-vis Southeast Asia","url":"https://iis.fudan.edu.cn/c5/ef/c6852a640495/page.htm","publisher":"Asian Perspective via Fudan University","date":"2023","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Asian Perspective"},{"id":"DC-S127","title":"BRI From the Ground Up: Leaders from 129 countries evaluate a decade of Beijing's signature initiative","url":"https://docs.aiddata.org/reports/bri-from-the-ground-up/full-report.html","publisher":"AidData at William & Mary","date":"2024-03-26","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"AidData"}]}],"revision_triggers":["A current matched non-state contact panel","Longitudinal access and policy-use evidence","Comparable exchange and party-network outcome evaluations"],"display_on_overview":false,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"?","label":"Insufficient basis","css_class":"insufficient"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"position":50},{"id":"DC-D03","title":"Coalition forming","detail_url":"/diplomacy-coalitions/review#dc-d03","current_position":"Contested","current_confidence":"moderate","observed":{"direction":"insufficient_basis","confidence":"low","summary":"PRC-centered forums have gained Global South breadth while U.S.-anchored coalitions have added high-capability members and specified roles; the gains occur in different objective and participant universes.","evidence":[{"text":"BRICS enlargement and the partner category demonstrate voluntary demand for an alternative forum, but consensus, hedging, and member agency preclude attribution to Beijing alone.","source_ids":["DC-S24","DC-S25","DC-S106"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S24","title":"About the BRICS","url":"https://brics.br/en/about-the-brics","publisher":"BRICS Brazil Presidency","date":"updated 2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"BRICS Presidency"},{"id":"DC-S25","title":"Nine nations announced as BRICS partner countries","url":"https://brics.br/en/news/nine-nations-announced-as-brics-partner-countries","publisher":"BRICS Brazil Presidency","date":"2025-01-17","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"BRICS Presidency"},{"id":"DC-S106","title":"BRICS Expansion and the Future of World Order: Perspectives from Member States, Partners, and Aspirants","url":"https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2025/03/brics-expansion-and-the-future-of-world-order-perspectives-from-member-states-partners-and-aspirants","publisher":"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace","date":"2025-03","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"}]},{"text":"NATO's enlargement and post-2022 integration, plus the 87-member Defeat ISIS coalition, demonstrate continued U.S./partner recruitment into differentiated security roles.","source_ids":["DC-S105","DC-S121"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S105","title":"Global military leaders discuss Defeat ISIS campaign","url":"https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/STATEMENTS/Statements-View/Article/4051599/global-military-leaders-meet-and-discuss-defeat-isis-campaign-at-combined-force/","publisher":"U.S. Central Command","date":"2025-02-03","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS"},{"id":"DC-S121","title":"Deterrence and defence","url":"https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/deterrence-and-defence/deterrence-and-defence","publisher":"North Atlantic Treaty Organization","date":"updated 2026","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"NATO"}]},{"text":"Regional indices show stronger recent PRC diplomatic influence, but their composite structure cannot resolve coalition-role coverage globally.","source_ids":["DC-S03","DC-S97"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S03","title":"Asia Power Index methodology","url":"https://power.lowyinstitute.org/methodology/","publisher":"Lowy Institute","date":"2025 edition","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Lowy Institute"},{"id":"DC-S97","title":"2025 Asia Power Index: China gains advantage","url":"https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/2025-asia-power-index-report/china-gains-advantage","publisher":"Lowy Institute","date":"2025 release","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Lowy Institute"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"?","label":"Insufficient basis","css_class":"insufficient"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"outlook":{"direction":"insufficient_basis","confidence":"low","summary":"Both architectures are likely to keep expanding in different missions. Expansion alone cannot determine which system will recruit the pivotal actors and accepted roles needed for a bounded objective.","current_efforts":[{"text":"BRICS partner integration and FOCAC follow-up create additional PRC-centered convening and role-negotiation opportunities.","source_ids":["DC-S25","DC-S43","DC-S72"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S25","title":"Nine nations announced as BRICS partner countries","url":"https://brics.br/en/news/nine-nations-announced-as-brics-partner-countries","publisher":"BRICS Brazil Presidency","date":"2025-01-17","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"BRICS Presidency"},{"id":"DC-S43","title":"Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Beijing Action Plan (2025-2027)","url":"https://2024focacsummit.mfa.gov.cn/eng/hyqk_1/202409/t20240906_11486213.htm","publisher":"Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China","date":"2024-09-06","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs and FOCAC"},{"id":"DC-S72","title":"Opening Statement at the Post-FOCAC Symposium on Implementing the Beijing Action Plan (2025-2027)","url":"https://www.peaceau.org/en/article/opening-statement-at-the-post-focac-symposium-on-implementing-the-beijing-action-plan-2025-2027","publisher":"African Union Peace and Security Department","date":"2025-11-26","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"African Union Commission"}]},{"text":"NATO force planning and existing functional coalitions preserve a U.S./partner mechanism for high-capability role assignment.","source_ids":["DC-S105","DC-S121"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S105","title":"Global military leaders discuss Defeat ISIS campaign","url":"https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/STATEMENTS/Statements-View/Article/4051599/global-military-leaders-meet-and-discuss-defeat-isis-campaign-at-combined-force/","publisher":"U.S. Central Command","date":"2025-02-03","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS"},{"id":"DC-S121","title":"Deterrence and defence","url":"https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/deterrence-and-defence/deterrence-and-defence","publisher":"North Atlantic Treaty Organization","date":"updated 2026","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"NATO"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"Expanded BRICS membership increases reach while also increasing heterogeneity and coherence costs.","source_ids":["DC-S106","DC-S122"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S106","title":"BRICS Expansion and the Future of World Order: Perspectives from Member States, Partners, and Aspirants","url":"https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2025/03/brics-expansion-and-the-future-of-world-order-perspectives-from-member-states-partners-and-aspirants","publisher":"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace","date":"2025-03","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"},{"id":"DC-S122","title":"Life After Expansion: The BRICS Quest for Institutional Coherence","url":"https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/SAIIA_PI_168_LifeAfterExpansionBRICS.pdf","publisher":"South African Institute of International Affairs","date":"2025-08","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"South African Institute of International Affairs"}]},{"text":"Russian threat, host incentives, and member self-interest can explain U.S.-anchored recruitment without proving superior diplomatic conversion.","source_ids":["DC-S121"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S121","title":"Deterrence and defence","url":"https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/deterrence-and-defence/deterrence-and-defence","publisher":"North Atlantic Treaty Organization","date":"updated 2026","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"NATO"}]}],"revision_triggers":["Matched coalition-role coverage across common objectives","Observed member acceptance and contribution after a new trigger","BRICS partner-role or NATO burden-retention evidence"],"display_on_overview":false,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"?","label":"Insufficient basis","css_class":"insufficient"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"position":50},{"id":"DC-D04","title":"Commitment credibility","detail_url":"/diplomacy-coalitions/review#dc-d04","current_position":"U.S. / partner edge","current_confidence":"low","observed":{"direction":"toward_prc","confidence":"moderate","summary":"A broad current U.S. discontinuity across aid and international institutions has narrowed the existing U.S./partner edge, while PRC development and forum commitments continue to deliver selected outputs.","evidence":[{"text":"The U.S. ordered a foreign-aid pause and review, withdrew from or ended funding for 66 international bodies, completed WHO and Paris Agreement withdrawal steps, and continued to block WTO Appellate Body appointments.","source_ids":["DC-S59","DC-S63","DC-S64","DC-S65","DC-S111"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S59","title":"Post-MC14 briefing note: WTO reform and dispute settlement reform","url":"https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/minist_e/mc14_e/briefing_notes_e/wtoreform_e.htm","publisher":"World Trade Organization","date":"updated through 2026-05","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"World Trade Organization"},{"id":"DC-S63","title":"Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Withdraws the United States from International Organizations that Are Contrary to the Interests of the United States","url":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/01/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-withdraws-the-united-states-from-international-organizations-that-are-contrary-to-the-interests-of-the-united-states/","publisher":"The White House","date":"2026-01-07","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Executive Office of the President"},{"id":"DC-S64","title":"WHO statement on notification of withdrawal of the United States","url":"https://www.who.int/news/item/24-01-2026-who-statement-on-notification-of-withdrawal-of-the-united-states","publisher":"World Health Organization","date":"2026-01-24","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"World Health Organization"},{"id":"DC-S65","title":"United States of America: Paris Agreement ratification status","url":"https://unfccc.int/node/61231","publisher":"United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change","date":"updated 2026","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"UNFCCC"},{"id":"DC-S111","title":"Reevaluating and Realigning United States Foreign Aid","url":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/reevaluating-and-realigning-united-states-foreign-aid/","publisher":"The White House","date":"2025-01-20","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"U.S. executive branch"}]},{"text":"UN financial records document current stewardship arrears, adding a delivery measure to the withdrawal pattern.","source_ids":["DC-S56"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S56","title":"Financial situation of the United Nations: May 2026 presentation","url":"https://static.un.org/en/ga/contributions/Presentation%20May%202026.pdf","publisher":"United Nations","date":"2026-05","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"United Nations"}]},{"text":"PRC development-finance and FOCAC records show substantial delivered projects, repair, and follow-up, while obligation specificity and independent verification remain uneven.","source_ids":["DC-S43","DC-S72","DC-S110","DC-S125"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S43","title":"Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Beijing Action Plan (2025-2027)","url":"https://2024focacsummit.mfa.gov.cn/eng/hyqk_1/202409/t20240906_11486213.htm","publisher":"Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China","date":"2024-09-06","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs and FOCAC"},{"id":"DC-S72","title":"Opening Statement at the Post-FOCAC Symposium on Implementing the Beijing Action Plan (2025-2027)","url":"https://www.peaceau.org/en/article/opening-statement-at-the-post-focac-symposium-on-implementing-the-beijing-action-plan-2025-2027","publisher":"African Union Peace and Security Department","date":"2025-11-26","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"African Union Commission"},{"id":"DC-S110","title":"Belt and Road Reboot: Beijing's Bid to De-Risk Its Global Infrastructure Initiative","url":"https://www.aiddata.org/publications/belt-and-road-reboot","publisher":"AidData at William & Mary","date":"2023-11-06","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"AidData"},{"id":"DC-S125","title":"FOCAC at Twenty-Five: A Reflective Inquiry into a Matured Partnership","url":"https://www.inclusivesociety.org.za/post/focac-at-twenty-five-a-reflective-inquiry-into-a-matured-partnership","publisher":"Inclusive Society Institute","date":"2025 symposium report","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Inclusive Society Institute and Zhejiang Normal University"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"←","label":"Toward PRC advantage","css_class":"toward-prc"},"confidence_label":"Moderate"},"outlook":{"direction":"toward_prc","confidence":"moderate","summary":"The current U.S. edge is likely to narrow further if institutional exits, aid discontinuity, and arrears persist. Core U.S./partner security obligations and new NATO commitments are substantial counterweights and prevent a forecasted position change.","current_efforts":[{"text":"The 2026 NATO declaration renews collective investment, procurement, burden-shift, and Ukraine-support commitments across 32 allies.","source_ids":["DC-S128"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S128","title":"The Ankara Summit Declaration","url":"https://www.nato.int/en/about-us/official-texts-and-resources/official-texts/2026/07/08/the-ankara-summit-declaration","publisher":"North Atlantic Treaty Organization","date":"2026-07-08","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"NATO"}]},{"text":"FOCAC's 2025-2027 action plan and implementation forums sustain a multi-year PRC commitment pipeline.","source_ids":["DC-S43","DC-S72"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S43","title":"Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Beijing Action Plan (2025-2027)","url":"https://2024focacsummit.mfa.gov.cn/eng/hyqk_1/202409/t20240906_11486213.htm","publisher":"Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China","date":"2024-09-06","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs and FOCAC"},{"id":"DC-S72","title":"Opening Statement at the Post-FOCAC Symposium on Implementing the Beijing Action Plan (2025-2027)","url":"https://www.peaceau.org/en/article/opening-statement-at-the-post-focac-symposium-on-implementing-the-beijing-action-plan-2025-2027","publisher":"African Union Peace and Security Department","date":"2025-11-26","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"African Union Commission"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"The U.S./partner system retains a broader architecture of explicit security obligations linked to standing plans, forces, authorities, and exercises.","source_ids":["DC-S19","DC-S107","DC-S121","DC-S128"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S19","title":"Secretary General's Annual Report 2025","url":"https://nato.int/en/about-us/official-texts-and-resources/secretary-generals-annual-report/secretary-generals-annual-report-2025","publisher":"North Atlantic Treaty Organization","date":"2026 publication covering 2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"NATO"},{"id":"DC-S107","title":"U.S. Collective Defense Arrangements","url":"https://2009-2017.state.gov/s/l/treaty/collectivedefense/index.htm","publisher":"U.S. Department of State","date":"archived 2009-2017 page; treaty texts remain operative where not superseded","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"U.S. treaty system"},{"id":"DC-S121","title":"Deterrence and defence","url":"https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/deterrence-and-defence/deterrence-and-defence","publisher":"North Atlantic Treaty Organization","date":"updated 2026","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"NATO"},{"id":"DC-S128","title":"The Ankara Summit Declaration","url":"https://www.nato.int/en/about-us/official-texts-and-resources/official-texts/2026/07/08/the-ankara-summit-declaration","publisher":"North Atlantic Treaty Organization","date":"2026-07-08","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"NATO"}]},{"text":"PRC credibility is constrained by obligation opacity, disputed Hong Kong compliance, heterogeneous forum commitments, and the absence of matched trigger-fulfillment records.","source_ids":["DC-S67","DC-S112","DC-S122"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S67","title":"RANEPA's 2024 BRICS Kazan Final Compliance Report","url":"https://www.brics.unipr.it/wedit/fileman/Uploads/RANEPA_BRICS_2024_Final_report.pdf","publisher":"Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration","date":"2025-06-05; actions through 2025-05-21","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"RANEPA Center for International Institutions Research"},{"id":"DC-S112","title":"Six-monthly report on Hong Kong: 1 July to 31 December 2025","url":"https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/six-monthly-report-on-hong-kong-july-to-december-2025/six-monthly-report-on-hong-kong-1-july-to-31-december-2025","publisher":"Government of the United Kingdom","date":"2026-04","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"United Kingdom government"},{"id":"DC-S122","title":"Life After Expansion: The BRICS Quest for Institutional Coherence","url":"https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/SAIIA_PI_168_LifeAfterExpansionBRICS.pdf","publisher":"South African Institute of International Affairs","date":"2025-08","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"South African Institute of International Affairs"}]}],"revision_triggers":["Restoration or permanent termination of 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preserved.","source_ids":["DC-S113","DC-S117","DC-S131"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S113","title":"U.S. Overseas Basing: Background and Issues for Congress","url":"https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/R/HTML/R48123.html","publisher":"Congressional Research Service","date":"R48123; 2024-07-10","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"Congressional Research Service"},{"id":"DC-S117","title":"Joint Statement on the Philippines-United States Fourth 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue","url":"https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3854902/joint-statement-on-the-philippines-united-states-fourth-22-ministerial-dialogue/","publisher":"U.S. Department of Defense","date":"2024-07-30","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"U.S.-Philippines alliance"},{"id":"DC-S131","title":"Defense official: EDCA sites under PH control, not American bases","url":"https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1270083","publisher":"Philippine News Agency","date":"2026-03-02","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Philippine defense and national-security authorities"}]},{"text":"AidData identifies a large PRC-financed port network and prospective access pathways, but finance, ownership, and port calls do not establish crisis permission.","source_ids":["DC-S114"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S114","title":"Anchoring Global Ambitions: Beijing's Ports Financing and the Race for Maritime Dominance","url":"https://docs.aiddata.org/reports/anchoring-global-ambitions/full-report.html","publisher":"AidData at William & Mary","date":"2026-03-04","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"AidData"}]},{"text":"Observed U.S. use of Cambodia's PRC-expanded Ream base is direct counterevidence to automatic exclusive-access claims.","source_ids":["DC-S115","DC-S124"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S115","title":"A Tale of Two Reams: Questions Remain at Cambodia's Growing Naval Base","url":"https://amti.csis.org/a-tale-of-two-reams-questions-remain-at-cambodias-growing-naval-base/","publisher":"Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, Center for Strategic and International Studies","date":"2025-05-05","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative"},{"id":"DC-S124","title":"U.S. warship visits Cambodia naval base expanded with China's help","url":"https://apnews.com/article/a8d9fe4d1dda8c7cf9bec2639718b19c","publisher":"Associated Press","date":"2026-01","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Associated Press"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"?","label":"Insufficient basis","css_class":"insufficient"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"outlook":{"direction":"insufficient_basis","confidence":"low","summary":"Physical investment on both sides will continue, but host-state agency, nonexclusive use, readiness, permissions, and crisis conditions make the net direction unscorable.","current_efforts":[{"text":"EDCA, renewed Pacific compacts, and allied infrastructure work provide executing U.S./partner access pathways.","source_ids":["DC-S116","DC-S117","DC-S131"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S116","title":"Compacts of Free Association: Education and Health Remain Priorities, but Implementation and Oversight Are Delayed","url":"https://files.gao.gov/reports/GAO-26-107778/index.html","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"GAO-26-107778; 2026","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"U.S. Government Accountability Office"},{"id":"DC-S117","title":"Joint Statement on the Philippines-United States Fourth 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue","url":"https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3854902/joint-statement-on-the-philippines-united-states-fourth-22-ministerial-dialogue/","publisher":"U.S. Department of 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Mary","date":"2026-03-04","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"AidData"},{"id":"DC-S115","title":"A Tale of Two Reams: Questions Remain at Cambodia's Growing Naval Base","url":"https://amti.csis.org/a-tale-of-two-reams-questions-remain-at-cambodias-growing-naval-base/","publisher":"Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, Center for Strategic and International Studies","date":"2025-05-05","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"Host governments retain legal and political control, and peacetime use does not establish wartime permission.","source_ids":["DC-S113","DC-S124","DC-S131"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S113","title":"U.S. Overseas Basing: Background and Issues for Congress","url":"https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/R/HTML/R48123.html","publisher":"Congressional Research Service","date":"R48123; 2024-07-10","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"Congressional Research Service"},{"id":"DC-S124","title":"U.S. warship visits Cambodia naval base expanded with China's help","url":"https://apnews.com/article/a8d9fe4d1dda8c7cf9bec2639718b19c","publisher":"Associated Press","date":"2026-01","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Associated Press"},{"id":"DC-S131","title":"Defense official: EDCA sites under PH control, not American bases","url":"https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1270083","publisher":"Philippine News Agency","date":"2026-03-02","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Philippine defense and national-security authorities"}]},{"text":"No matched public series measures completed throughput, survivability, repair, prepositioning, caveats, and permission under the same scenario.","source_ids":["DC-S113","DC-S114","DC-S116"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S113","title":"U.S. Overseas Basing: Background 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Office"}]}],"revision_triggers":["Observed crisis-use authorization or denial","Facility-level logistics and readiness evidence","A matched global access dataset separating finance, ownership, permission, and throughput"],"display_on_overview":false,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"?","label":"Insufficient basis","css_class":"insufficient"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"position":75},{"id":"DC-D06","title":"Coalition activation","detail_url":"/diplomacy-coalitions/review#dc-d06","current_position":"U.S. / partner edge","current_confidence":"low","observed":{"direction":"toward_us_allies","confidence":"low","summary":"U.S./partner coalitions continue to build standing and contingent activation machinery, while selected SCO security episodes expose consensus limits; the trigger universes remain unmatched.","evidence":[{"text":"NATO's 2022 same-day decisions and first collective deployments provide a demonstrated activation sequence that remains an institutional reference point.","source_ids":["DC-S78","DC-S79","DC-S80"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S78","title":"Press briefing by the NATO Secretary General following an extraordinary meeting of the North Atlantic Council","url":"https://www.nato.int/en/news-and-events/events/transcripts/2022/02/24/press-briefing","publisher":"North Atlantic Treaty Organization","date":"2022-02-24","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"North Atlantic Treaty Organization"},{"id":"DC-S79","title":"Press conference by the NATO Secretary General following the extraordinary virtual summit of NATO Heads of State and Government","url":"https://www.nato.int/en/news-and-events/events/transcripts/2022/02/25/press-conference","publisher":"North Atlantic Treaty Organization","date":"2022-02-25","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"North Atlantic Treaty Organization"},{"id":"DC-S80","title":"NATO Response Force units arrive in Romania","url":"https://www.nato.int/en/news-and-events/articles/news/2022/03/02/nato-response-force-units-arrive-in-romania","publisher":"North Atlantic Treaty Organization","date":"2022-03-02","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"North Atlantic Treaty Organization"}]},{"text":"The 2026 Coalition of the Willing established a headquarters and command structure, but deployment remains contingent on a ceasefire and participant roles remain incomplete.","source_ids":["DC-S129","DC-S130"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S129","title":"Statement of the co-chairs of the Coalition of the Willing","url":"https://www.gov.uk/government/news/statement-of-the-co-chairs-of-the-coalition-of-the-willing-13-july-2026","publisher":"United Kingdom Prime Minister's Office","date":"2026-07-13","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Coalition of the Willing co-chairs"},{"id":"DC-S130","title":"UK takes command of multinational force for Ukraine","url":"https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-takes-command-of-multinational-force-for-ukraine","publisher":"United Kingdom Ministry of Defence","date":"2026-07-24","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"United Kingdom Ministry of Defence and Multinational Force Ukraine"}]},{"text":"India's refusal to sign a 2025 SCO defence-minister statement and later declaratory repair show both activation friction and institutional adaptability.","source_ids":["DC-S77","DC-S83","DC-S84"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S77","title":"Every act of terrorism is criminal and unjustifiable, SCO must unite in eliminating the menace for collective safety and security","url":"https://www.pib.gov.in/Pressreleaseshare.aspx?PRID=2139754&lang=2&reg=48","publisher":"Government of India Press Information Bureau","date":"2025-06-26","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Government of India Ministry of Defence"},{"id":"DC-S83","title":"India refuses to sign joint statement at China-hosted SCO meeting","url":"https://apnews.com/article/china-india-meeting-statement-refusal-67bfc09a329e93b9c721029c36e31176","publisher":"Associated Press","date":"2025-06-26","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Associated Press"},{"id":"DC-S84","title":"Tianjin Declaration of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation","url":"https://en.special.kremlin.ru/supplement/6376","publisher":"Shanghai Cooperation Organisation member-state publication","date":"2025-09-01","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Shanghai Cooperation Organisation"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"→","label":"Toward U.S. / partner advantage","css_class":"toward-partners"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"outlook":{"direction":"insufficient_basis","confidence":"low","summary":"U.S./partner machinery may deepen, but the most current force remains untriggered and no common portfolio compares activation latency, role acceptance, caveats, and outputs across the systems.","current_efforts":[{"text":"The Coalition of the Willing is planning exercises and maintaining an operational headquarters for a contingent mission.","source_ids":["DC-S129","DC-S130"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S129","title":"Statement of the co-chairs of the Coalition of the Willing","url":"https://www.gov.uk/government/news/statement-of-the-co-chairs-of-the-coalition-of-the-willing-13-july-2026","publisher":"United Kingdom Prime Minister's Office","date":"2026-07-13","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Coalition of the Willing co-chairs"},{"id":"DC-S130","title":"UK takes command of multinational force for Ukraine","url":"https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-takes-command-of-multinational-force-for-ukraine","publisher":"United Kingdom Ministry of Defence","date":"2026-07-24","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"United Kingdom Ministry of Defence and Multinational Force Ukraine"}]},{"text":"The SCO maintains consensus institutions, a small permanent secretariat, and recurring security cooperation despite member disagreement.","source_ids":["DC-S73","DC-S74","DC-S84"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S73","title":"General information","url":"https://eng.sectsco.org/20260306/2185609.html","publisher":"Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Secretariat","date":"2026-03-06","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Shanghai Cooperation Organisation"},{"id":"DC-S74","title":"SCO Secretariat","url":"https://eng.sectsco.org/20260305/2184451.html","publisher":"Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Secretariat","date":"2026-03-05","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Shanghai Cooperation Organisation"},{"id":"DC-S84","title":"Tianjin Declaration of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation","url":"https://en.special.kremlin.ru/supplement/6376","publisher":"Shanghai Cooperation Organisation member-state publication","date":"2025-09-01","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Shanghai Cooperation Organisation"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"The Ukraine multinational force has not faced its stated ceasefire trigger, so readiness and participation remain actor claims.","source_ids":["DC-S129","DC-S130"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S129","title":"Statement of the co-chairs of the Coalition of the Willing","url":"https://www.gov.uk/government/news/statement-of-the-co-chairs-of-the-coalition-of-the-willing-13-july-2026","publisher":"United Kingdom Prime Minister's Office","date":"2026-07-13","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Coalition of the Willing co-chairs"},{"id":"DC-S130","title":"UK takes command of multinational force for Ukraine","url":"https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-takes-command-of-multinational-force-for-ukraine","publisher":"United Kingdom Ministry of Defence","date":"2026-07-24","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"United Kingdom Ministry of Defence and Multinational Force Ukraine"}]},{"text":"Alliance and forum mandates, threats, legal authorities, and eligible roles differ too sharply for activation counts to be compared directly.","source_ids":["DC-S17","DC-S27","DC-S75"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S17","title":"Consensus decision-making at NATO","url":"https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/introduction-to-nato/consensus-decision-making-at-nato","publisher":"North Atlantic Treaty Organization","date":"updated 2023-06-30","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"NATO"},{"id":"DC-S27","title":"Charter of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization","url":"https://eng.sectsco.org/images/07e8/0c/14/1625960.pdf","publisher":"Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Secretariat","date":"2002 charter; current official copy","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Shanghai Cooperation Organisation"},{"id":"DC-S75","title":"The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: An evolving platform that should not be overlooked","url":"https://www.ui.se/butiken/uis-publikationer/ui-report/2025/the-shanghai-cooperation-organization-sco--an-evolving-platform-that-should-not-be-overlooked/","publisher":"Swedish Institute of International Affairs","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Swedish Institute of International Affairs"}]}],"revision_triggers":["An eligible Coalition of the Willing trigger","A matched U.S./partner and PRC-centered crisis pair","Published activation latency, role, caveat, and delivery denominators"],"display_on_overview":false,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"?","label":"Insufficient basis","css_class":"insufficient"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"position":75},{"id":"DC-D07","title":"Coalition delivery","detail_url":"/diplomacy-coalitions/review#dc-d07","current_position":"U.S. / partner edge","current_confidence":"low","observed":{"direction":"toward_us_allies","confidence":"low","summary":"European partners materially substituted for withdrawn U.S. aid to Ukraine and mature institutions retain audited delivery, but PRC-initiated institutions also show growing finance and project output.","evidence":[{"text":"Kiel's tracked allocations show Europe largely filled the U.S. aid withdrawal in 2025, demonstrating partner substitution rather than uninterrupted U.S. delivery.","source_ids":["DC-S93","DC-S94","DC-S95"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S93","title":"Ukraine Support Tracker","url":"https://www.kielinstitut.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker","publisher":"Kiel Institute for the World Economy","date":"data through 2026-04","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Kiel Institute for the World Economy"},{"id":"DC-S94","title":"Ukraine Support Tracker research note","url":"https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/Subject_Dossiers_Topics/Ukraine/Ukraine_Support_Tracker/Ukraine_Support_Tracker_-_Research_Note.pdf","publisher":"Kiel Institute for the World Economy","date":"current methodology release","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Kiel Institute for the World Economy"},{"id":"DC-S95","title":"Europe largely fills the US aid withdrawal in 2025","url":"https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/f04639f3-0d21-421b-ba4f-f87be40506ae-KPB2023_EN.pdf","publisher":"Kiel Institute for the World Economy","date":"2026-02 policy brief","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Kiel Institute for the World Economy"}]},{"text":"The G7 compliance series and World Bank evaluation records provide recurring implementation evidence, with selection and attribution limits.","source_ids":["DC-S50","DC-S53"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S50","title":"2025 G7 Kananaskis Summit Final Compliance Report","url":"https://www.g7.utoronto.ca/evaluations/2025compliance-final/index.html","publisher":"G7 Research Group, University of Toronto","date":"2026-06-10; actions through 2026-06-01","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"University of Toronto G7 Research Group"},{"id":"DC-S53","title":"Results and Performance of the World Bank Group 2025: Overview","url":"https://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/evaluations/results-and-performance-world-bank-group-2025/overview","publisher":"World Bank Group Independent Evaluation Group","date":"2026 release; FY2022-FY2024 performance window","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"World Bank Group Independent Evaluation Group"}]},{"text":"AIIB's growing portfolio and crisis facility demonstrate real multilateral output, but approvals, co-finance, disbursement, and PRC attribution remain distinct.","source_ids":["DC-S69","DC-S90","DC-S91","DC-S92"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S69","title":"Project Summary","url":"https://www.aiib.org/en/projects/summary/index.html","publisher":"Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank","date":"status 2026-08-07; finance through 2026-03-31","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank"},{"id":"DC-S90","title":"AIIB 2020 Annual Report: COVID-19 Crisis Recovery Facility","url":"https://www.aiib.org/en/news-events/annual-report/2020/covid-19/index.html","publisher":"Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank","date":"2020 annual report","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank"},{"id":"DC-S91","title":"COVID-19 Crisis Recovery Facility","url":"https://www.aiib.org/en/policies-strategies/COVID-19-Crisis-Recovery-Facility/index.html","publisher":"Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank","date":"closed 2023-12-31","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank"},{"id":"DC-S92","title":"Final Review of the AIIB COVID-19 Crisis Recovery Facility","url":"https://www.aiib.org/en/policies-strategies/COVID-19-Crisis-Recovery-Facility/_download/Final-Review-of-the-AIIB-COVID-19-Crisis-Recovery-Facility-public.pdf","publisher":"Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank","date":"2024 review","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"→","label":"Toward U.S. / partner advantage","css_class":"toward-partners"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"outlook":{"direction":"insufficient_basis","confidence":"low","summary":"Partner substitution and new NATO commitments support U.S./partner delivery, while U.S. retrenchment and growing PRC-initiated institutional output pull in the opposite direction.","current_efforts":[{"text":"NATO's 2026 declaration commits allies to further procurement, investment, burden shift, and Ukraine support.","source_ids":["DC-S128"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S128","title":"The Ankara Summit Declaration","url":"https://www.nato.int/en/about-us/official-texts-and-resources/official-texts/2026/07/08/the-ankara-summit-declaration","publisher":"North Atlantic Treaty Organization","date":"2026-07-08","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"NATO"}]},{"text":"AIIB portfolio growth and FOCAC implementation mechanisms sustain PRC-centered delivery channels.","source_ids":["DC-S43","DC-S69","DC-S72"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S43","title":"Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Beijing Action Plan (2025-2027)","url":"https://2024focacsummit.mfa.gov.cn/eng/hyqk_1/202409/t20240906_11486213.htm","publisher":"Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China","date":"2024-09-06","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs and FOCAC"},{"id":"DC-S69","title":"Project Summary","url":"https://www.aiib.org/en/projects/summary/index.html","publisher":"Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank","date":"status 2026-08-07; finance through 2026-03-31","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank"},{"id":"DC-S72","title":"Opening Statement at the Post-FOCAC Symposium on Implementing the Beijing Action Plan (2025-2027)","url":"https://www.peaceau.org/en/article/opening-statement-at-the-post-focac-symposium-on-implementing-the-beijing-action-plan-2025-2027","publisher":"African Union Peace and Security Department","date":"2025-11-26","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"African Union Commission"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"The U.S. aid discontinuity transfers burdens and may remove unique authorities, expertise, and scale even when partners replace aggregate value.","source_ids":["DC-S95","DC-S111"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S95","title":"Europe largely fills the US aid withdrawal in 2025","url":"https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/f04639f3-0d21-421b-ba4f-f87be40506ae-KPB2023_EN.pdf","publisher":"Kiel Institute for the World Economy","date":"2026-02 policy brief","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Kiel Institute for the World Economy"},{"id":"DC-S111","title":"Reevaluating and Realigning United States Foreign Aid","url":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/reevaluating-and-realigning-united-states-foreign-aid/","publisher":"The White House","date":"2025-01-20","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"U.S. executive branch"}]},{"text":"Commitments, approvals, allocations, disbursements, accepted outputs, and outcomes remain different stages and are not published under one common denominator.","source_ids":["DC-S50","DC-S53","DC-S69","DC-S92","DC-S94"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S50","title":"2025 G7 Kananaskis Summit Final Compliance Report","url":"https://www.g7.utoronto.ca/evaluations/2025compliance-final/index.html","publisher":"G7 Research Group, University of Toronto","date":"2026-06-10; actions through 2026-06-01","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"University of Toronto G7 Research Group"},{"id":"DC-S53","title":"Results and Performance of the World Bank Group 2025: Overview","url":"https://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/evaluations/results-and-performance-world-bank-group-2025/overview","publisher":"World Bank Group Independent Evaluation Group","date":"2026 release; FY2022-FY2024 performance window","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"World Bank Group Independent Evaluation Group"},{"id":"DC-S69","title":"Project Summary","url":"https://www.aiib.org/en/projects/summary/index.html","publisher":"Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank","date":"status 2026-08-07; finance through 2026-03-31","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank"},{"id":"DC-S92","title":"Final Review of the AIIB COVID-19 Crisis Recovery Facility","url":"https://www.aiib.org/en/policies-strategies/COVID-19-Crisis-Recovery-Facility/_download/Final-Review-of-the-AIIB-COVID-19-Crisis-Recovery-Facility-public.pdf","publisher":"Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank","date":"2024 review","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank"},{"id":"DC-S94","title":"Ukraine Support Tracker research note","url":"https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/Subject_Dossiers_Topics/Ukraine/Ukraine_Support_Tracker/Ukraine_Support_Tracker_-_Research_Note.pdf","publisher":"Kiel Institute for the World Economy","date":"current methodology release","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Kiel Institute for the World Economy"}]}],"revision_triggers":["Country-level NATO 2026 commitment delivery","A completed FOCAC or AIIB obligation portfolio","Matched accepted-output and additionality data across coalitions"],"display_on_overview":false,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"?","label":"Insufficient basis","css_class":"insufficient"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"position":75},{"id":"DC-D08","title":"Institutional leadership","detail_url":"/diplomacy-coalitions/review#dc-d08","current_position":"U.S. / partner edge","current_confidence":"moderate","observed":{"direction":"toward_prc","confidence":"moderate","summary":"Current U.S. exits, arrears, and WTO obstruction reduce stewardship across several established institutions while BRICS and AIIB expand participation, agenda breadth, and output.","evidence":[{"text":"The U.S. withdrew from or ended funding for 66 international bodies and completed major WHO and Paris Agreement exits while UN arrears and WTO dispute-settlement blockage persisted.","source_ids":["DC-S56","DC-S59","DC-S63","DC-S64","DC-S65"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S56","title":"Financial situation of the United Nations: May 2026 presentation","url":"https://static.un.org/en/ga/contributions/Presentation%20May%202026.pdf","publisher":"United Nations","date":"2026-05","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"United Nations"},{"id":"DC-S59","title":"Post-MC14 briefing note: WTO reform and dispute settlement reform","url":"https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/minist_e/mc14_e/briefing_notes_e/wtoreform_e.htm","publisher":"World Trade Organization","date":"updated through 2026-05","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"World Trade Organization"},{"id":"DC-S63","title":"Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Withdraws the United States from International Organizations that Are Contrary to the Interests of the United States","url":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/01/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-withdraws-the-united-states-from-international-organizations-that-are-contrary-to-the-interests-of-the-united-states/","publisher":"The White House","date":"2026-01-07","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Executive Office of the President"},{"id":"DC-S64","title":"WHO statement on notification of withdrawal of the United States","url":"https://www.who.int/news/item/24-01-2026-who-statement-on-notification-of-withdrawal-of-the-united-states","publisher":"World Health Organization","date":"2026-01-24","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"World Health Organization"},{"id":"DC-S65","title":"United States of America: Paris Agreement ratification status","url":"https://unfccc.int/node/61231","publisher":"United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change","date":"updated 2026","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"UNFCCC"}]},{"text":"BRICS expanded members and partners and adopted a broad 2025 agenda, while its consensus system and member heterogeneity limit attribution and implementation.","source_ids":["DC-S24","DC-S25","DC-S66","DC-S122"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S24","title":"About the BRICS","url":"https://brics.br/en/about-the-brics","publisher":"BRICS Brazil Presidency","date":"updated 2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"BRICS Presidency"},{"id":"DC-S25","title":"Nine nations announced as BRICS partner countries","url":"https://brics.br/en/news/nine-nations-announced-as-brics-partner-countries","publisher":"BRICS Brazil Presidency","date":"2025-01-17","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"BRICS Presidency"},{"id":"DC-S66","title":"BRICS Summit signs historic commitment in Rio for more inclusive and sustainable governance","url":"https://brics.br/en/news/brics-summit-signs-historic-commitment-in-rio-for-more-inclusive-and-sustainable-governance","publisher":"BRICS Brazil Presidency","date":"2025-07-07","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"BRICS Presidency"},{"id":"DC-S122","title":"Life After Expansion: The BRICS Quest for Institutional Coherence","url":"https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/SAIIA_PI_168_LifeAfterExpansionBRICS.pdf","publisher":"South African Institute of International Affairs","date":"2025-08","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"South African Institute of International Affairs"}]},{"text":"AIIB reached 111 approved members with a growing finance and project portfolio, although it is multilateral and approval is not outcome.","source_ids":["DC-S28","DC-S69","DC-S70"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S28","title":"Members of the Bank","url":"https://www.aiib.org/en/about-aiib/governance/members-of-bank/","publisher":"Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank","date":"as of 2026-05-29","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank"},{"id":"DC-S69","title":"Project Summary","url":"https://www.aiib.org/en/projects/summary/index.html","publisher":"Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank","date":"status 2026-08-07; finance through 2026-03-31","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank"},{"id":"DC-S70","title":"Introduction to CEIU","url":"https://www.aiib.org/en/about-aiib/who-we-are/complaints-resolution-evaluation-integrity-unit/introduction/index.html","publisher":"Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Complaints-resolution, Evaluation and Integrity Unit","date":"current 2026","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"AIIB CEIU"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"←","label":"Toward PRC advantage","css_class":"toward-prc"},"confidence_label":"Moderate"},"outlook":{"direction":"toward_prc","confidence":"moderate","summary":"Unless U.S. stewardship reverses, PRC-centered agenda and institutional pathways are likely to gain relative space. Mature U.S./partner institutions retain deeper rule, finance, evaluation, and implementation capacity, preventing a forecasted change in current position.","current_efforts":[{"text":"BRICS partner integration, AIIB project expansion, and FOCAC follow-up provide continuing agenda, membership, and delivery mechanisms.","source_ids":["DC-S25","DC-S43","DC-S69","DC-S72"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S25","title":"Nine nations announced as BRICS partner countries","url":"https://brics.br/en/news/nine-nations-announced-as-brics-partner-countries","publisher":"BRICS Brazil Presidency","date":"2025-01-17","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"BRICS Presidency"},{"id":"DC-S43","title":"Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Beijing Action Plan (2025-2027)","url":"https://2024focacsummit.mfa.gov.cn/eng/hyqk_1/202409/t20240906_11486213.htm","publisher":"Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China","date":"2024-09-06","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs and FOCAC"},{"id":"DC-S69","title":"Project Summary","url":"https://www.aiib.org/en/projects/summary/index.html","publisher":"Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank","date":"status 2026-08-07; finance through 2026-03-31","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank"},{"id":"DC-S72","title":"Opening Statement at the Post-FOCAC Symposium on Implementing the Beijing Action Plan (2025-2027)","url":"https://www.peaceau.org/en/article/opening-statement-at-the-post-focac-symposium-on-implementing-the-beijing-action-plan-2025-2027","publisher":"African Union Peace and Security Department","date":"2025-11-26","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"African Union Commission"}]},{"text":"NATO's 2026 collective commitments and mature G7, OECD, and World Bank implementation machinery sustain U.S./partner institutional capacity.","source_ids":["DC-S31","DC-S50","DC-S53","DC-S128"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S31","title":"Compendium of International Organisations' Practices: Strengthening implementation of international instruments","url":"https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/compendium-of-international-organisations-practices_846a5fa0-en.html","publisher":"Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development","date":"2021","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"OECD"},{"id":"DC-S50","title":"2025 G7 Kananaskis Summit Final Compliance Report","url":"https://www.g7.utoronto.ca/evaluations/2025compliance-final/index.html","publisher":"G7 Research Group, University of Toronto","date":"2026-06-10; actions through 2026-06-01","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"University of Toronto G7 Research Group"},{"id":"DC-S53","title":"Results and Performance of the World Bank Group 2025: Overview","url":"https://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/evaluations/results-and-performance-world-bank-group-2025/overview","publisher":"World Bank Group Independent Evaluation Group","date":"2026 release; FY2022-FY2024 performance window","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"World Bank Group Independent Evaluation Group"},{"id":"DC-S128","title":"The Ankara Summit Declaration","url":"https://www.nato.int/en/about-us/official-texts-and-resources/official-texts/2026/07/08/the-ankara-summit-declaration","publisher":"North Atlantic Treaty Organization","date":"2026-07-08","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"NATO"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"PRC-centered forums contain divergent interests, consensus constraints, shared leadership, and incomplete obligation-level delivery evidence.","source_ids":["DC-S67","DC-S75","DC-S76","DC-S122"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S67","title":"RANEPA's 2024 BRICS Kazan Final Compliance Report","url":"https://www.brics.unipr.it/wedit/fileman/Uploads/RANEPA_BRICS_2024_Final_report.pdf","publisher":"Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration","date":"2025-06-05; actions through 2025-05-21","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"RANEPA Center for International Institutions Research"},{"id":"DC-S75","title":"The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: An evolving platform that should not be overlooked","url":"https://www.ui.se/butiken/uis-publikationer/ui-report/2025/the-shanghai-cooperation-organization-sco--an-evolving-platform-that-should-not-be-overlooked/","publisher":"Swedish Institute of International Affairs","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Swedish Institute of International Affairs"},{"id":"DC-S76","title":"Expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: a platform for regional cooperation or a tool for power projection?","url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/24761028.2026.2658324","publisher":"Journal of Contemporary East Asia Studies","date":"2026-05-05","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Journal of Contemporary East Asia Studies"},{"id":"DC-S122","title":"Life After Expansion: The BRICS Quest for Institutional Coherence","url":"https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/SAIIA_PI_168_LifeAfterExpansionBRICS.pdf","publisher":"South African Institute of International Affairs","date":"2025-08","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"South African Institute of International Affairs"}]},{"text":"Withdrawal can reflect a strategic choice rather than lost influence, and established institutions continue to operate through partner leadership and autonomous governance.","source_ids":["DC-S53","DC-S59","DC-S63"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S53","title":"Results and Performance of the World Bank Group 2025: Overview","url":"https://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/evaluations/results-and-performance-world-bank-group-2025/overview","publisher":"World Bank Group Independent Evaluation Group","date":"2026 release; FY2022-FY2024 performance window","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"World Bank Group Independent Evaluation Group"},{"id":"DC-S59","title":"Post-MC14 briefing note: WTO reform and dispute settlement reform","url":"https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/minist_e/mc14_e/briefing_notes_e/wtoreform_e.htm","publisher":"World Trade Organization","date":"updated through 2026-05","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"World Trade Organization"},{"id":"DC-S63","title":"Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Withdraws the United States from International Organizations that Are Contrary to the Interests of the United States","url":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/01/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-withdraws-the-united-states-from-international-organizations-that-are-contrary-to-the-interests-of-the-united-states/","publisher":"The White House","date":"2026-01-07","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Executive Office of the President"}]}],"revision_triggers":["U.S. reentry or additional exit from major institutions","New arrears and assessed-payment records","BRICS, AIIB, or FOCAC obligation-level implementation and member-agency evidence"],"display_on_overview":true,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"←","label":"Toward PRC advantage","css_class":"toward-prc"},"confidence_label":"Moderate"},"position":75},{"id":"DC-D09","title":"Bargaining outcomes","detail_url":"/diplomacy-coalitions/review#dc-d09","current_position":"Insufficient comparative basis","current_confidence":"not_assessed","observed":{"direction":"insufficient_basis","confidence":"low","summary":"Recent and historical bargains show successes and reversals for both systems, but no matched portfolio controls objectives, leverage, opponent, outside options, implementation, cost, and durability.","evidence":[{"text":"The JCPOA achieved verified initial nuclear implementation before U.S. withdrawal and subsequent reversal, illustrating why agreement, implementation, and durability require separate judgments.","source_ids":["DC-S118","DC-S119"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S118","title":"IAEA Annual Report 2018","url":"https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/publications/reports/2018/gc63-5.pdf","publisher":"International Atomic Energy Agency","date":"2019 release covering 2018","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"International Atomic Energy Agency"},{"id":"DC-S119","title":"Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action","url":"https://2009-2017.state.gov/e/eb/tfs/spi/iran/jcpoa/?safe=1","publisher":"U.S. Department of State","date":"2015-2017 implementation archive","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"P5+1 and European Union"}]},{"text":"The PRC-facilitated Saudi-Iran agreement restored diplomatic ties after prior Iraqi and Omani groundwork, but broader regional settlement and long-run compliance are not established.","source_ids":["DC-S120"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S120","title":"Iran and Saudi Arabia agree to resume ties with China's help","url":"https://apnews.com/article/2f80bb71a995910cb4b172e5dbee3526","publisher":"Associated Press","date":"2023-03-10","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Associated Press"}]},{"text":"UN Security Council records provide observable votes and outcomes but do not reconstruct private bargaining or causal contribution.","source_ids":["DC-S21"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S21","title":"Voting records since 1992","url":"https://main.un.org/securitycouncil/en/content/voting-records-1992","publisher":"United Nations Security Council","date":"rolling official dataset","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"United Nations"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"?","label":"Insufficient basis","css_class":"insufficient"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"outlook":{"direction":"insufficient_basis","confidence":"low","summary":"No two-year relative forecast is defensible without a preselected matched bargaining portfolio and post-agreement implementation windows.","current_efforts":[{"text":"Both systems retain formal, institutional, and backchannel venues capable of producing bounded agreements.","source_ids":["DC-S21","DC-S120"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S21","title":"Voting records since 1992","url":"https://main.un.org/securitycouncil/en/content/voting-records-1992","publisher":"United Nations Security Council","date":"rolling official dataset","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"United Nations"},{"id":"DC-S120","title":"Iran and Saudi Arabia agree to resume ties with China's help","url":"https://apnews.com/article/2f80bb71a995910cb4b172e5dbee3526","publisher":"Associated Press","date":"2023-03-10","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Associated Press"}]},{"text":"Existing verification and institutional records can support future case coding when objectives and counterfactuals are fixed in advance.","source_ids":["DC-S118","DC-S119"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S118","title":"IAEA Annual Report 2018","url":"https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/publications/reports/2018/gc63-5.pdf","publisher":"International Atomic Energy Agency","date":"2019 release covering 2018","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"International Atomic Energy Agency"},{"id":"DC-S119","title":"Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action","url":"https://2009-2017.state.gov/e/eb/tfs/spi/iran/jcpoa/?safe=1","publisher":"U.S. Department of State","date":"2015-2017 implementation archive","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"P5+1 and European Union"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"Selection on visible agreements hides failed negotiations and makes success rates incomparable.","source_ids":["DC-S21","DC-S120"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S21","title":"Voting records since 1992","url":"https://main.un.org/securitycouncil/en/content/voting-records-1992","publisher":"United Nations Security Council","date":"rolling official dataset","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"United Nations"},{"id":"DC-S120","title":"Iran and Saudi Arabia agree to resume ties with China's help","url":"https://apnews.com/article/2f80bb71a995910cb4b172e5dbee3526","publisher":"Associated Press","date":"2023-03-10","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Associated Press"}]},{"text":"Military, economic, domestic, and third-party leverage often drives terms independently of diplomatic technique.","source_ids":["DC-S44","DC-S118","DC-S120"],"source_records":[{"id":"DC-S44","title":"Resolution 678 (1990)","url":"https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/102245?ln=en","publisher":"United Nations Security Council","date":"1990-11-29","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"United Nations"},{"id":"DC-S118","title":"IAEA Annual Report 2018","url":"https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/publications/reports/2018/gc63-5.pdf","publisher":"International Atomic Energy Agency","date":"2019 release covering 2018","evidence_role":"intergovernmental_data_or_analysis","institutional_family":"International Atomic Energy Agency"},{"id":"DC-S120","title":"Iran and Saudi Arabia agree to resume ties with China's 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