{"schema_version":"1.0","domain":"economic-industrial","domain_title":"Economics & Industry","domain_number":2,"theme":"economic","as_of":"2026-08-08","baseline_snapshot":"2026-08-08","horizon":{"months":24,"through":"2028-08-08","basis":"The outlook carries the observed relative direction forward, then adjusts it for current policy, funding, construction, and delivery evidence. Commitments are discounted when disbursement, qualification, operating output, or strategic effect remains unobserved.","through_display":"August 8, 2028"},"review_schedule":{"six_month":"2027-02-08","twelve_month":"2027-08-08","event_driven":"Revise earlier when authoritative evidence materially changes a direction, confidence level, or current-position judgment.","six_month_display":"February 8, 2027","twelve_month_display":"August 8, 2027"},"method":{"observed":"Observed trajectory describes the relative direction supported by comparable changes already visible in output, concentration, market use, infrastructure, project delivery, or strategic effect.","outlook":"The outlook is the observed direction continued through the forecast horizon unless funded and executing efforts are likely to arrest or reverse it.","overview_rule":"An overview arrow appears only when the two-year direction has moderate or high confidence. Insufficient evidence produces no arrow; it is not treated as stability.","position_rule":"The outlook does not move the current position marker or create a forecasted position score. Position and direction remain separate judgments."},"headline":"Where is structural leverage likely to move next?","summary":"Manufacturing scale, critical-input concentration, and technology diffusion continue to move toward the PRC. Dollar-centered financial reach is broadly stable, while early U.S. industrial projects are beginning to move delivery capacity toward the United States and partners. Coalition performance, transport resilience, and coercion adaptation remain too case-specific for a single high-confidence direction.","items":[{"id":"EI-D01","title":"Financial networks & monetary reach","detail_url":"/economic-industrial#ei-d01","current_position":"U.S. / partner edge","position":75,"current_confidence":"High","observed":{"direction":"broadly_stable","confidence":"high","summary":"The dollar's reserve share and broader international role remain dominant and broadly stable; quarterly movements are materially affected by valuation.","evidence":[{"text":"The dollar accounted for 57.13% of disclosed foreign-exchange reserves in 2026 Q1, versus 20.03% for the euro and 1.99% for the renminbi.","source_ids":["IMF-COFER-2026Q1"],"source_records":[{"id":"IMF-COFER-2026Q1","title":"Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2026 Q1","url":"https://data.imf.org/en/news/imf%20data%20brief%20july%201","publisher":"International Monetary Fund","date":"2026-07-01"}]},{"text":"The Federal Reserve continues to identify the dollar as dominant across reserves, international debt, loans, and cross-border payments.","source_ids":["FED-DOLLAR-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"FED-DOLLAR-2026","title":"Fifth Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/fifth-conference-on-the-international-roles-of-the-u-s-dollar-stablecoins-digital-payments-and-the-ir-of-the-usd-20260716.html","publisher":"Federal Reserve Board","date":"2026-07-16"}]},{"text":"Sanctions remain scalable through U.S.-linked finance, but strategic effect varies and target adaptation can reduce leverage.","source_ids":["OFAC-PROGRAMS-2026","GAO-RUSSIA-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"OFAC-PROGRAMS-2026","title":"Sanctions Programs and Country Information","url":"https://ofac.treasury.gov/sanctions-programs-and-country-information","publisher":"U.S. Treasury, OFAC","date":"2026-07-24"},{"id":"GAO-RUSSIA-2025","title":"Russia Sanctions and Export Controls: Agencies Should Establish Targets to Better Assess Effectiveness","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-107079","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"2025-09-08"}]},{"text":"The PBOC reported 64.1 trillion yuan in cross-border RMB settlement in 2024 and 34.9 trillion in the first half of 2025, while IMF reserve data still show a much smaller global reserve role than the dollar.","source_ids":["PRC-PBOC-RMB-2025","IMF-COFER-2026Q1"],"source_records":[{"id":"PRC-PBOC-RMB-2025","title":"RMB Internationalization Report 2025","url":"https://www.pbc.gov.cn/huobizhengceersi/214481/3871621/5885243/2025122616492523798.pdf","publisher":"People's Bank of China","date":"2025"},{"id":"IMF-COFER-2026Q1","title":"Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2026 Q1","url":"https://data.imf.org/en/news/imf%20data%20brief%20july%201","publisher":"International Monetary Fund","date":"2026-07-01"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"—","label":"Broadly stable","css_class":"stable"},"confidence_label":"High"},"outlook":{"direction":"broadly_stable","confidence":"high","summary":"The U.S. and partner financial edge is likely to persist without a material directional change. Diversification incentives will grow, but network depth and incumbent use make a sharp two-year shift unlikely.","current_efforts":[{"text":"U.S. financial authorities retain broad sanctions, licensing, reporting, and enforcement infrastructure.","source_ids":["OFAC-PROGRAMS-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"OFAC-PROGRAMS-2026","title":"Sanctions Programs and Country Information","url":"https://ofac.treasury.gov/sanctions-programs-and-country-information","publisher":"U.S. Treasury, OFAC","date":"2026-07-24"}]},{"text":"Stablecoin and digital-payment developments are being assessed against the dollar's existing network role.","source_ids":["FED-DOLLAR-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"FED-DOLLAR-2026","title":"Fifth Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/fifth-conference-on-the-international-roles-of-the-u-s-dollar-stablecoins-digital-payments-and-the-ir-of-the-usd-20260716.html","publisher":"Federal Reserve Board","date":"2026-07-16"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"Fiscal risk, policy unpredictability, exceptions, and overuse can strengthen incentives to route around U.S. finance.","source_ids":["FED-DOLLAR-2026","BEA-IIP-2026Q1"],"source_records":[{"id":"FED-DOLLAR-2026","title":"Fifth Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/fifth-conference-on-the-international-roles-of-the-u-s-dollar-stablecoins-digital-payments-and-the-ir-of-the-usd-20260716.html","publisher":"Federal Reserve Board","date":"2026-07-16"},{"id":"BEA-IIP-2026Q1","title":"U.S. International Investment Position, 2026 Q1","url":"https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-investment-position","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis","date":"2026-06-24"}]},{"text":"Reserve-share changes alone do not measure payment use, funding depth, or policy effectiveness.","source_ids":["IMF-COFER-2026Q1"],"source_records":[{"id":"IMF-COFER-2026Q1","title":"Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2026 Q1","url":"https://data.imf.org/en/news/imf%20data%20brief%20july%201","publisher":"International Monetary Fund","date":"2026-07-01"}]}],"revision_triggers":["Valuation-adjusted multi-quarter reserve reallocation","Material shift in dollar funding and payment shares","Repeated coalition or enforcement failures"],"display_on_overview":true,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"—","label":"Broadly stable","css_class":"stable"},"confidence_label":"High"}},{"id":"EI-D02","title":"Manufacturing scale & production depth","detail_url":"/economic-industrial#ei-d02","current_position":"PRC edge","position":25,"current_confidence":"High","observed":{"direction":"toward_prc","confidence":"high","summary":"Manufacturing output and technology-intensive production continue to shift toward Asia, with China holding scale across major industrial and semiconductor measures.","evidence":[{"text":"UNIDO reports a continuing structural shift of global manufacturing toward Asia and Oceania.","source_ids":["UNIDO-YEARBOOK-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"UNIDO-YEARBOOK-2025","title":"International Yearbook of Industrial Statistics 2025","url":"https://stat.unido.org/learning-center/international-yearbook-industrial-statistics-2025","publisher":"UN Industrial Development Organization","date":"2025-11-20"}]},{"text":"Asia and the Pacific led the 1.2% global manufacturing-production increase in 2026 Q1, while global manufactured exports rose 3.5%.","source_ids":["UNIDO-Q1-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"UNIDO-Q1-2026","title":"World Manufacturing Production and Trade, 2026 Q1","url":"https://stat.unido.org/publications/qiip","publisher":"UN Industrial Development Organization","date":"2026-06-30"}]},{"text":"China led semiconductor production by value added in 2024 at 30%, ahead of Taiwan, the United States, and South Korea.","source_ids":["NSF-SE-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"NSF-SE-2026","title":"The State of U.S. Science and Engineering 2026","url":"https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsbsep20261/overview","publisher":"National Science Board / NSF","date":"2026-05-04"}]},{"text":"MIIT reported China accounted for 56.1% of global ship completions, 69.0% of new orders, and 66.8% of the orderbook in 2025 by deadweight-ton measures.","source_ids":["PRC-MIIT-SHIP-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"PRC-MIIT-SHIP-2025","title":"China's Shipbuilding Retained the World's Largest Market Share in 2025","url":"https://www.miit.gov.cn/gxsj/tjfx/zbgy/mycb/art/2026/art_fc5e4ed1d3f5421885e6c3afff91cbbc.html","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Industry and Information Technology","date":"2026-02-01"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"←","label":"Toward PRC advantage","css_class":"toward-prc"},"confidence_label":"High"},"outlook":{"direction":"toward_prc","confidence":"high","summary":"Existing plant, supplier, workforce, and infrastructure depth should keep relative manufacturing scale moving toward the PRC. U.S. and partner investments can improve selected sectors but are unlikely to reverse the aggregate direction within two years.","current_efforts":[{"text":"U.S. semiconductor incentives cover 40 construction, expansion, or modernization projects across the supply chain.","source_ids":["GAO-CHIPS-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"GAO-CHIPS-2025","title":"Semiconductors: Information on Projects Funded to Strengthen U.S. Supply Chain","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-107882","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"2025-12"}]},{"text":"U.S. R&D intensity, venture finance, and high-impact innovation remain substantial inputs to future production.","source_ids":["NSF-SE-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"NSF-SE-2026","title":"The State of U.S. Science and Engineering 2026","url":"https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsbsep20261/overview","publisher":"National Science Board / NSF","date":"2026-05-04"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"Aggregate value added does not reveal yield, surge capacity, supplier independence, or access to frontier tools.","source_ids":["UNIDO-YEARBOOK-2025","NSF-SE-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"UNIDO-YEARBOOK-2025","title":"International Yearbook of Industrial Statistics 2025","url":"https://stat.unido.org/learning-center/international-yearbook-industrial-statistics-2025","publisher":"UN Industrial Development Organization","date":"2025-11-20"},{"id":"NSF-SE-2026","title":"The State of U.S. Science and Engineering 2026","url":"https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsbsep20261/overview","publisher":"National Science Board / NSF","date":"2026-05-04"}]},{"text":"Many U.S. projects remain in construction or early milestone stages rather than qualified operating output.","source_ids":["GAO-CHIPS-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"GAO-CHIPS-2025","title":"Semiconductors: Information on Projects Funded to Strengthen U.S. Supply Chain","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-107882","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"2025-12"}]}],"revision_triggers":["Qualified output from major new U.S. and partner facilities","Product-level yield and supplier-density gains","Sustained change in regional manufacturing growth"],"display_on_overview":true,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"←","label":"Toward PRC advantage","css_class":"toward-prc"},"confidence_label":"High"}},{"id":"EI-D03","title":"Critical inputs, processing & substitution","detail_url":"/economic-industrial#ei-d03","current_position":"PRC edge","position":25,"current_confidence":"High","observed":{"direction":"toward_prc","confidence":"high","summary":"Processing concentration reached new highs and PRC export controls expanded, turning structural dependency into observed disruption.","evidence":[{"text":"Excluding rare earths, the leading country's average share of key-mineral refining rose from 70% in 2023 to 72% in 2025.","source_ids":["IEA-MINERALS-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"IEA-MINERALS-2026","title":"Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026/executive-summary","publisher":"International Energy Agency","date":"2026-07-16"}]},{"text":"The number of mineral tariff codes under Chinese export controls tripled from 2023 to 2025.","source_ids":["IEA-MINERALS-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"IEA-MINERALS-2026","title":"Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026/executive-summary","publisher":"International Energy Agency","date":"2026-07-16"}]},{"text":"USGS data continue to show high U.S. import reliance and concentrated production across multiple strategically important commodities.","source_ids":["USGS-MCS-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"USGS-MCS-2026","title":"Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026","url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/mcs2026","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","date":"2026-05-27"}]},{"text":"PRC Ministry of Commerce measures directly establish licensing controls covering gallium, germanium, graphite, and selected medium and heavy rare-earth items.","source_ids":["PRC-MOFCOM-GA-GE-2023","PRC-MOFCOM-GRAPHITE-2023","PRC-MOFCOM-REE-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"PRC-MOFCOM-GA-GE-2023","title":"Export Controls on Gallium- and Germanium-Related Items","url":"https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/dwmygl/art/2023/art_52b9a321087f402bb3d310d18b07967e.html","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Commerce / General Administration of Customs","date":"2023-07-03"},{"id":"PRC-MOFCOM-GRAPHITE-2023","title":"Adjusted Export Controls on Graphite Items","url":"https://interview.mofcom.gov.cn/mofcom_interview/front/swfgk/article?id=20231003447368","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Commerce / General Administration of Customs","date":"2023-10-20"},{"id":"PRC-MOFCOM-REE-2025","title":"Export Controls on Selected Medium and Heavy Rare-Earth Items","url":"https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/jmxw/art/2025/art_a2284b3f7b8f4a59a6374f2009d5e36b.html","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Commerce / General Administration of Customs","date":"2025-04-04"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"←","label":"Toward PRC advantage","css_class":"toward-prc"},"confidence_label":"High"},"outlook":{"direction":"toward_prc","confidence":"moderate","summary":"Non-PRC finance and new projects should slow deterioration in selected pathways, but mining, refining, qualification, and downstream integration will not mature uniformly within two years. Net leverage is likely to continue moving toward the PRC.","current_efforts":[{"text":"Advanced-economy public-finance commitments for critical minerals reached about $65 billion in 2025, more than four times the 2023 level.","source_ids":["IEA-MINERALS-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"IEA-MINERALS-2026","title":"Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026/executive-summary","publisher":"International Energy Agency","date":"2026-07-16"}]},{"text":"Governments are expanding supply-security policy, project finance, and diversification efforts across critical stages.","source_ids":["OECD-SECURITY-2025","IEA-MINERALS-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"OECD-SECURITY-2025","title":"Economic Security and Vulnerabilities in International Supply Chains","url":"https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2025/09/economic-security-in-a-changing-world_78f3b129/full-report/economic-security-and-vulnerabilities-in-international-supply-chains_dc88aefa.html","publisher":"Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development","date":"2025-09"},{"id":"IEA-MINERALS-2026","title":"Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026/executive-summary","publisher":"International Energy Agency","date":"2026-07-16"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"Commitments still exceed disbursements, while midstream and downstream projects lag mine announcements.","source_ids":["IEA-MINERALS-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"IEA-MINERALS-2026","title":"Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026/executive-summary","publisher":"International Energy Agency","date":"2026-07-16"}]},{"text":"Grade, chemistry, qualification, by-product economics, and embedded inputs limit rapid substitution.","source_ids":["USGS-MCS-2026","OECD-SECURITY-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"USGS-MCS-2026","title":"Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026","url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/mcs2026","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","date":"2026-05-27"},{"id":"OECD-SECURITY-2025","title":"Economic Security and Vulnerabilities in International Supply Chains","url":"https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2025/09/economic-security-in-a-changing-world_78f3b129/full-report/economic-security-and-vulnerabilities-in-international-supply-chains_dc88aefa.html","publisher":"Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development","date":"2025-09"}]}],"revision_triggers":["Operating non-PRC refining and component output","Sustained decline in top-refiner shares","Demonstrated qualification and substitution at scale"],"display_on_overview":true,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"←","label":"Toward PRC advantage","css_class":"toward-prc"},"confidence_label":"Moderate"}},{"id":"EI-D04","title":"Innovation, technology chokepoints & diffusion","detail_url":"/economic-industrial#ei-d04","current_position":"Mixed","position":50,"current_confidence":"Medium-high","observed":{"direction":"toward_prc","confidence":"moderate","summary":"The United States retains impact and frontier strengths, but China's R&D scale, patent volume, semiconductor production, and cost-efficient diffusion are increasing across critical technologies.","evidence":[{"text":"China is estimated to have slightly surpassed the United States in internationally comparable R&D performance in 2024.","source_ids":["NSF-SE-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"NSF-SE-2026","title":"The State of U.S. Science and Engineering 2026","url":"https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsbsep20261/overview","publisher":"National Science Board / NSF","date":"2026-05-04"}]},{"text":"China led 2024 international priority-patent counts across AI, quantum, biotechnology, semiconductors, and nuclear technologies.","source_ids":["NSF-SE-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"NSF-SE-2026","title":"The State of U.S. Science and Engineering 2026","url":"https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsbsep20261/overview","publisher":"National Science Board / NSF","date":"2026-05-04"}]},{"text":"U.S. research, high-impact patents, venture capital, and high-technology services retain meaningful quality and commercialization advantages.","source_ids":["NSF-SE-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"NSF-SE-2026","title":"The State of U.S. Science and Engineering 2026","url":"https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsbsep20261/overview","publisher":"National Science Board / NSF","date":"2026-05-04"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"←","label":"Toward PRC advantage","css_class":"toward-prc"},"confidence_label":"Moderate"},"outlook":{"direction":"toward_prc","confidence":"moderate","summary":"PRC scale and diffusion are likely to narrow selected chokepoints even while the U.S. holds frontier and ecosystem advantages. Controls can slow access, but adaptation and foreign availability prevent treating them as permanent barriers.","current_efforts":[{"text":"U.S. export rules retain advanced-computing, semiconductor-manufacturing, end-use, and end-user controls.","source_ids":["BIS-EAR-744-2026","BIS-CHIPS-POLICY-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"BIS-EAR-744-2026","title":"Export Administration Regulations, Part 744","url":"https://www.bis.gov/regulations/ear/744","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security","date":"2026-07-27"},{"id":"BIS-CHIPS-POLICY-2026","title":"Revised License Review Policy for Semiconductors Exported to China","url":"https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-revises-license-review-policy-semiconductors-exported-china","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security","date":"2026-01-13"}]},{"text":"Domestic semiconductor incentives and high private R&D investment support continued frontier and production capacity.","source_ids":["GAO-CHIPS-2025","NSF-SE-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"GAO-CHIPS-2025","title":"Semiconductors: Information on Projects Funded to Strengthen U.S. Supply Chain","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-107882","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"2025-12"},{"id":"NSF-SE-2026","title":"The State of U.S. Science and Engineering 2026","url":"https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsbsep20261/overview","publisher":"National Science Board / NSF","date":"2026-05-04"}]},{"text":"PRC plans and policies direct tax, finance, research, talent, and diffusion support toward semiconductors, software, AI, and other strategic technologies.","source_ids":["PRC-FYP14-2021","PRC-IC-POLICY-2020","PRC-AI-PLUS-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"PRC-FYP14-2021","title":"14th Five-Year Plan and 2035 Long-Range Objectives","url":"https://www.miit.gov.cn/xwdt/szyw/art/2021/art_86371f315d484a36811c5c94298912fa.html","publisher":"PRC State Council / National People's Congress","date":"2021-03-13"},{"id":"PRC-IC-POLICY-2020","title":"Policies to Promote High-Quality Development of the Integrated-Circuit and Software Industries","url":"https://www.miit.gov.cn/xwdt/szyw/art/2020/art_b5059afaa450422a820648c635d653f6.html","publisher":"PRC State Council","date":"2020-08-04"},{"id":"PRC-AI-PLUS-2025","title":"State Council Opinion on Deepening the 'AI Plus' Initiative","url":"https://www.cac.gov.cn/2025-08/27/c_1758018277755538.htm","publisher":"PRC State Council","date":"2025-08-26"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"Export controls can accelerate substitution, rerouting, indigenous investment, and design changes.","source_ids":["GAO-EXPORT-CONTROLS-2024","BIS-EAR-744-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"GAO-EXPORT-CONTROLS-2024","title":"Export Controls: Commerce Implemented Advanced Semiconductor Rules and Took Steps to Address Compliance Challenges","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-107386","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"2024-12-02"},{"id":"BIS-EAR-744-2026","title":"Export Administration Regulations, Part 744","url":"https://www.bis.gov/regulations/ear/744","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security","date":"2026-07-27"}]},{"text":"Patent counts, publications, and announced capacity do not directly measure deployable performance or yield.","source_ids":["NSF-SE-2026","GAO-CHIPS-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"NSF-SE-2026","title":"The State of U.S. Science and Engineering 2026","url":"https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsbsep20261/overview","publisher":"National Science Board / NSF","date":"2026-05-04"},{"id":"GAO-CHIPS-2025","title":"Semiconductors: Information on Projects Funded to Strengthen U.S. Supply Chain","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-107882","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"2025-12"}]}],"revision_triggers":["Independent measures of foreign availability","Qualified domestic production and yield","Sustained shifts in high-impact research and patent measures"],"display_on_overview":true,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"←","label":"Toward PRC advantage","css_class":"toward-prc"},"confidence_label":"Moderate"}},{"id":"EI-D05","title":"Energy, logistics & maritime movement","detail_url":"/economic-industrial#ei-d05","current_position":"Mixed","position":50,"current_confidence":"Medium-high","observed":{"direction":"insufficient_basis","confidence":"low","summary":"Europe demonstrated rapid energy diversification, but maritime and shipbuilding capacity remain concentrated and U.S. commercial maritime depth remains weak. These changes do not resolve to one relative direction.","evidence":[{"text":"The EU reduced Russia's share of gas imports from 45% in 2021 to 12% in 2025 through infrastructure, alternative supply, demand adjustment, and law.","source_ids":["EU-ENERGY-2026","IEA-GAS-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"EU-ENERGY-2026","title":"Ending Russian Energy Imports","url":"https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/ending-russian-energy-imports/","publisher":"Council of the European Union","date":"2026-01-26"},{"id":"IEA-GAS-2026","title":"Gas Market Report, Q1 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/gas-market-report-q1-2026/executive-summary","publisher":"International Energy Agency","date":"2026 Q1"}]},{"text":"Roughly 80% of world merchandise-trade volume moves by sea, where rerouting and concentrated capacity create persistent exposure.","source_ids":["UNCTAD-MARITIME-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"UNCTAD-MARITIME-2025","title":"Review of Maritime Transport 2025","url":"https://unctad.org/publication/review-maritime-transport-2025","publisher":"UN Trade and Development","date":"2025-09-24"}]},{"text":"U.S. commercial shipping, mariner, and shipbuilding capacity may be inadequate for economic-security and defense needs.","source_ids":["MARAD-STRATEGY-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"MARAD-STRATEGY-2026","title":"Independent Study in Support of a National Maritime Strategy","url":"https://www.maritime.dot.gov/data-reports/independent-study-in-support-of-a-national-maritime-strategy","publisher":"U.S. Maritime Administration","date":"2026-03-23"}]},{"text":"PRC agencies reported 452 GW of renewable additions in 2025 and majority global shares across ship completions, new orders, and orderbooks; these scale measures do not by themselves establish resilience or military conversion.","source_ids":["PRC-NEA-RENEW-2025","PRC-MIIT-SHIP-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"PRC-NEA-RENEW-2025","title":"Grid-Connected Operation of Renewable Energy in 2025","url":"https://www.nea.gov.cn/20260212/742b8c6a078347b0b39de676c05c5d58/c.html","publisher":"PRC National Energy Administration","date":"2026-02-12"},{"id":"PRC-MIIT-SHIP-2025","title":"China's Shipbuilding Retained the World's Largest Market Share in 2025","url":"https://www.miit.gov.cn/gxsj/tjfx/zbgy/mycb/art/2026/art_fc5e4ed1d3f5421885e6c3afff91cbbc.html","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Industry and Information Technology","date":"2026-02-01"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"?","label":"Insufficient basis","css_class":"insufficient"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"outlook":{"direction":"insufficient_basis","confidence":"low","summary":"Energy diversification should improve some partner resilience, but shipbuilding, lift, ports, insurance, and route concentration move on different timelines. No responsible aggregate two-year arrow is available.","current_efforts":[{"text":"European law and infrastructure are set to continue reducing Russian pipeline and LNG dependence.","source_ids":["EU-ENERGY-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"EU-ENERGY-2026","title":"Ending Russian Energy Imports","url":"https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/ending-russian-energy-imports/","publisher":"Council of the European Union","date":"2026-01-26"}]},{"text":"The U.S. maritime strategy process is identifying commercial-fleet, shipyard, and mariner constraints.","source_ids":["MARAD-STRATEGY-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"MARAD-STRATEGY-2026","title":"Independent Study in Support of a National Maritime Strategy","url":"https://www.maritime.dot.gov/data-reports/independent-study-in-support-of-a-national-maritime-strategy","publisher":"U.S. Maritime Administration","date":"2026-03-23"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"New energy routes can shift rather than remove exposure, while maritime capacity takes years to build.","source_ids":["IEA-GAS-2026","UNCTAD-MARITIME-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"IEA-GAS-2026","title":"Gas Market Report, Q1 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/gas-market-report-q1-2026/executive-summary","publisher":"International Energy Agency","date":"2026 Q1"},{"id":"UNCTAD-MARITIME-2025","title":"Review of Maritime Transport 2025","url":"https://unctad.org/publication/review-maritime-transport-2025","publisher":"UN Trade and Development","date":"2025-09-24"}]},{"text":"A redesigned logistics index improves measurement but does not provide a time series directly comparable with its predecessor.","source_ids":["WORLDBANK-LPI-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"WORLDBANK-LPI-2025","title":"Connecting to Compete 2025: Logistics Performance Indicators 2.0","url":"https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099042226142014971","publisher":"World Bank","date":"2026-04-22"}]}],"revision_triggers":["Comparable route-recovery time series","Delivered U.S. and allied shipyard throughput","Stress-tested energy and transport substitution"],"display_on_overview":false,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"?","label":"Insufficient basis","css_class":"insufficient"},"confidence_label":"Low"}},{"id":"EI-D06","title":"Coalition market power & coordinated instruments","detail_url":"/economic-industrial#ei-d06","current_position":"Potential partner edge","position":68.75,"current_confidence":"Medium","observed":{"direction":"toward_us_allies","confidence":"low","summary":"Partner institutions and coordinated diversification are becoming more operational, but agreement architecture is ahead of demonstrated crisis performance.","evidence":[{"text":"IPEF established a Supply Chain Council, Crisis Response Network, and Labor Rights Advisory Board across a major Indo-Pacific grouping.","source_ids":["COMMERCE-IPEF-2024"],"source_records":[{"id":"COMMERCE-IPEF-2024","title":"IPEF Agreement Relating to Supply Chain Resilience","url":"https://www.commerce.gov/ipef/pillar-ii","publisher":"U.S. Department of Commerce","date":"2024-02-24"}]},{"text":"EU energy coordination produced a large, measured reduction in dependence on Russian gas.","source_ids":["EU-ENERGY-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"EU-ENERGY-2026","title":"Ending Russian Energy Imports","url":"https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/ending-russian-energy-imports/","publisher":"Council of the European Union","date":"2026-01-26"}]},{"text":"U.S. agencies still lack complete targets and measures for assessing the effectiveness of some coordinated sanctions and export controls.","source_ids":["GAO-RUSSIA-2025","GAO-EXPORT-CONTROLS-2024"],"source_records":[{"id":"GAO-RUSSIA-2025","title":"Russia Sanctions and Export Controls: Agencies Should Establish Targets to Better Assess Effectiveness","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-107079","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"2025-09-08"},{"id":"GAO-EXPORT-CONTROLS-2024","title":"Export Controls: Commerce Implemented Advanced Semiconductor Rules and Took Steps to Address Compliance Challenges","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-107386","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"2024-12-02"}]},{"text":"The PRC's official BRI white paper documents a broad institutional and geographic cooperation architecture, but its self-reported program record does not establish host-state outcomes or strategic access.","source_ids":["PRC-BRI-2023"],"source_records":[{"id":"PRC-BRI-2023","title":"The Belt and Road Initiative: A Key Pillar of the Global Community of Shared Future","url":"https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/202310/10/content_WS6524b55fc6d0868f4e8e014c.html","publisher":"PRC State Council Information Office","date":"2023-10-10"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"→","label":"Toward U.S. / partner advantage","css_class":"toward-partners"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"outlook":{"direction":"toward_us_allies","confidence":"low","summary":"Existing institutions could strengthen partner leverage, but implementation, exercise performance, exception control, and domestic cost-sharing remain unproven. Confidence is too low for an overview arrow.","current_efforts":[{"text":"IPEF bodies provide standing mechanisms for vulnerability mapping, information exchange, stress tests, and crisis coordination.","source_ids":["COMMERCE-IPEF-2024"],"source_records":[{"id":"COMMERCE-IPEF-2024","title":"IPEF Agreement Relating to Supply Chain Resilience","url":"https://www.commerce.gov/ipef/pillar-ii","publisher":"U.S. Department of Commerce","date":"2024-02-24"}]},{"text":"Europe's energy diversification provides an observed example of coalition-scale demand, law, finance, and infrastructure changing exposure.","source_ids":["EU-ENERGY-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"EU-ENERGY-2026","title":"Ending Russian Energy Imports","url":"https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/ending-russian-energy-imports/","publisher":"Council of the European Union","date":"2026-01-26"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"Different threat perceptions, legal systems, domestic costs, and commercial interests generate lag and exceptions.","source_ids":["GAO-RUSSIA-2025","GAO-EXPORT-CONTROLS-2024"],"source_records":[{"id":"GAO-RUSSIA-2025","title":"Russia Sanctions and Export Controls: Agencies Should Establish Targets to Better Assess Effectiveness","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-107079","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"2025-09-08"},{"id":"GAO-EXPORT-CONTROLS-2024","title":"Export Controls: Commerce Implemented Advanced Semiconductor Rules and Took Steps to Address Compliance Challenges","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-107386","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"2024-12-02"}]},{"text":"Signed agreements do not establish performance during a major supply shock.","source_ids":["COMMERCE-IPEF-2024"],"source_records":[{"id":"COMMERCE-IPEF-2024","title":"IPEF Agreement Relating to Supply Chain Resilience","url":"https://www.commerce.gov/ipef/pillar-ii","publisher":"U.S. Department of Commerce","date":"2024-02-24"}]}],"revision_triggers":["IPEF crisis-response exercise or activation results","Measured implementation lag and coverage","Partner retention under material domestic cost"],"display_on_overview":false,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"→","label":"Toward U.S. / partner advantage","css_class":"toward-partners"},"confidence_label":"Low"}},{"id":"EI-D07","title":"Capital, workforce, permitting & project delivery","detail_url":"/economic-industrial#ei-d07","current_position":"Contested","position":50,"current_confidence":"High","observed":{"direction":"toward_us_allies","confidence":"moderate","summary":"U.S. and partner finance has begun converting into completed milestones and initial facilities, although the portfolio remains early and uneven.","evidence":[{"text":"Commerce awarded $30.9 billion in direct CHIPS funding and $5.5 billion in loans across 40 projects as of July 2025.","source_ids":["GAO-CHIPS-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"GAO-CHIPS-2025","title":"Semiconductors: Information on Projects Funded to Strengthen U.S. Supply Chain","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-107882","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"2025-12"}]},{"text":"Companies reported completing 24 of 161 milestones and one leading-edge facility was certified complete by June 2025.","source_ids":["GAO-CHIPS-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"GAO-CHIPS-2025","title":"Semiconductors: Information on Projects Funded to Strengthen U.S. Supply Chain","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-107882","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"2025-12"}]},{"text":"Critical-mineral public-finance commitments grew rapidly, though disbursement and operating output lagged.","source_ids":["IEA-MINERALS-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"IEA-MINERALS-2026","title":"Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026/executive-summary","publisher":"International Energy Agency","date":"2026-07-16"}]},{"text":"PRC industrial plans show a wide set of authorized policy instruments, but targets and incentives remain inputs until qualified operating output and effects are observed.","source_ids":["PRC-FYP14-2021","PRC-IC-POLICY-2020","PRC-AI-PLUS-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"PRC-FYP14-2021","title":"14th Five-Year Plan and 2035 Long-Range Objectives","url":"https://www.miit.gov.cn/xwdt/szyw/art/2021/art_86371f315d484a36811c5c94298912fa.html","publisher":"PRC State Council / National People's Congress","date":"2021-03-13"},{"id":"PRC-IC-POLICY-2020","title":"Policies to Promote High-Quality Development of the Integrated-Circuit and Software Industries","url":"https://www.miit.gov.cn/xwdt/szyw/art/2020/art_b5059afaa450422a820648c635d653f6.html","publisher":"PRC State Council","date":"2020-08-04"},{"id":"PRC-AI-PLUS-2025","title":"State Council Opinion on Deepening the 'AI Plus' Initiative","url":"https://www.cac.gov.cn/2025-08/27/c_1758018277755538.htm","publisher":"PRC State Council","date":"2025-08-26"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"→","label":"Toward U.S. / partner advantage","css_class":"toward-partners"},"confidence_label":"Moderate"},"outlook":{"direction":"toward_us_allies","confidence":"moderate","summary":"Projects already financed and under construction should add selected U.S. and partner capacity within two years. The gain is likely to be real but narrower than headline commitments imply because qualification, workforce, yield, and complementary infrastructure remain gating factors.","current_efforts":[{"text":"Semiconductor awards span materials, fabrication, leading-edge logic, memory, and packaging with milestones extending through 2033.","source_ids":["GAO-CHIPS-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"GAO-CHIPS-2025","title":"Semiconductors: Information on Projects Funded to Strengthen U.S. Supply Chain","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-107882","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"2025-12"}]},{"text":"Critical-mineral finance is expanding across advanced economies and targeting supply-chain diversification.","source_ids":["IEA-MINERALS-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"IEA-MINERALS-2026","title":"Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026/executive-summary","publisher":"International Energy Agency","date":"2026-07-16"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"Only a small share of semiconductor milestones had been reported complete, and most projects remain ahead of operating output.","source_ids":["GAO-CHIPS-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"GAO-CHIPS-2025","title":"Semiconductors: Information on Projects Funded to Strengthen U.S. Supply Chain","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-107882","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"2025-12"}]},{"text":"Commitments can be contingent or reannounced and do not establish disbursement, qualification, yield, utilization, or competitive unit cost.","source_ids":["IEA-MINERALS-2026","CENSUS-AIES-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"IEA-MINERALS-2026","title":"Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026/executive-summary","publisher":"International Energy Agency","date":"2026-07-16"},{"id":"CENSUS-AIES-2026","title":"Annual Integrated Economic Survey: Manufacturing Summary Statistics","url":"https://data.census.gov/table/AIESBASICTIMESERIES.AIES31BASIC01","publisher":"U.S. Census Bureau","date":"2026-02-26"}]}],"revision_triggers":["Milestone completion and disbursement rates","Qualified operating output and yield","Workforce fill, utilization, and customer offtake"],"display_on_overview":true,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"→","label":"Toward U.S. / partner advantage","css_class":"toward-partners"},"confidence_label":"Moderate"}},{"id":"EI-D08","title":"Coercion resilience, adaptation & policy learning","detail_url":"/economic-industrial#ei-d08","current_position":"Contested","position":50,"current_confidence":"Medium-high","observed":{"direction":"insufficient_basis","confidence":"low","summary":"Russia adapted around parts of the sanctions and export-control regime, while Europe sharply reduced its energy exposure. Resilience is demonstrably sector-, actor-, and time-specific.","evidence":[{"text":"Russia's 2022 growth was materially below its counterfactual, but 2023 and 2024 growth was not statistically different from the expected path.","source_ids":["GAO-RUSSIA-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"GAO-RUSSIA-2025","title":"Russia Sanctions and Export Controls: Agencies Should Establish Targets to Better Assess Effectiveness","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-107079","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"2025-09-08"}]},{"text":"Export controls hindered but did not prevent access to critical technology, and shadow-fleet activity limited oil-price-cap effects.","source_ids":["GAO-RUSSIA-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"GAO-RUSSIA-2025","title":"Russia Sanctions and Export Controls: Agencies Should Establish Targets to Better Assess Effectiveness","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-107079","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"2025-09-08"}]},{"text":"The EU reduced Russian gas from 45% of imports in 2021 to 12% in 2025.","source_ids":["EU-ENERGY-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"EU-ENERGY-2026","title":"Ending Russian Energy Imports","url":"https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/ending-russian-energy-imports/","publisher":"Council of the European Union","date":"2026-01-26"}]},{"text":"PRC law and regulations establish export-control, end-use, end-user, temporary-control, and unreliable-entity authorities; specific MOFCOM measures show those authorities applied to strategic materials.","source_ids":["PRC-EXPORT-LAW-2020","PRC-UEL-2020","PRC-MOFCOM-GA-GE-2023","PRC-MOFCOM-GRAPHITE-2023","PRC-MOFCOM-REE-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"PRC-EXPORT-LAW-2020","title":"Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China","url":"https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zfxxgk/gkml/art/2020/art_76b5fa416a4c42afa8af295eefffdffc.html","publisher":"National People's Congress of the PRC / PRC Ministry of Commerce","date":"2020-10-17"},{"id":"PRC-UEL-2020","title":"Provisions on the Unreliable Entity List","url":"https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/dl/file/20211203230795.pdf","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Commerce","date":"2020-09-19"},{"id":"PRC-MOFCOM-GA-GE-2023","title":"Export Controls on Gallium- and Germanium-Related Items","url":"https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/dwmygl/art/2023/art_52b9a321087f402bb3d310d18b07967e.html","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Commerce / General Administration of Customs","date":"2023-07-03"},{"id":"PRC-MOFCOM-GRAPHITE-2023","title":"Adjusted Export Controls on Graphite Items","url":"https://interview.mofcom.gov.cn/mofcom_interview/front/swfgk/article?id=20231003447368","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Commerce / General Administration of Customs","date":"2023-10-20"},{"id":"PRC-MOFCOM-REE-2025","title":"Export Controls on Selected Medium and Heavy Rare-Earth Items","url":"https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/jmxw/art/2025/art_a2284b3f7b8f4a59a6374f2009d5e36b.html","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Commerce / General Administration of Customs","date":"2025-04-04"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"?","label":"Insufficient basis","css_class":"insufficient"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"outlook":{"direction":"insufficient_basis","confidence":"low","summary":"Adaptation and counter-adaptation will continue, but the public record does not support one cross-case direction for sender leverage or target resilience. No overview arrow is shown.","current_efforts":[{"text":"Europe is legally extending the phaseout of Russian energy while expanding alternative infrastructure and supply.","source_ids":["EU-ENERGY-2026","IEA-GAS-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"EU-ENERGY-2026","title":"Ending Russian Energy Imports","url":"https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/ending-russian-energy-imports/","publisher":"Council of the European Union","date":"2026-01-26"},{"id":"IEA-GAS-2026","title":"Gas Market Report, Q1 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/gas-market-report-q1-2026/executive-summary","publisher":"International Energy Agency","date":"2026 Q1"}]},{"text":"U.S. sanctions and export-control programs retain broad scope and continue to evolve.","source_ids":["OFAC-PROGRAMS-2026","BIS-EAR-744-2026"],"source_records":[{"id":"OFAC-PROGRAMS-2026","title":"Sanctions Programs and Country Information","url":"https://ofac.treasury.gov/sanctions-programs-and-country-information","publisher":"U.S. Treasury, OFAC","date":"2026-07-24"},{"id":"BIS-EAR-744-2026","title":"Export Administration Regulations, Part 744","url":"https://www.bis.gov/regulations/ear/744","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security","date":"2026-07-27"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"Evasion, substitution, shadow fleets, fiscal support, and rerouting can blunt effects while raising costs.","source_ids":["GAO-RUSSIA-2025","OECD-SECURITY-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"GAO-RUSSIA-2025","title":"Russia Sanctions and Export Controls: Agencies Should Establish Targets to Better Assess Effectiveness","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-107079","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"2025-09-08"},{"id":"OECD-SECURITY-2025","title":"Economic Security and Vulnerabilities in International Supply Chains","url":"https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2025/09/economic-security-in-a-changing-world_78f3b129/full-report/economic-security-and-vulnerabilities-in-international-supply-chains_dc88aefa.html","publisher":"Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development","date":"2025-09"}]},{"text":"Macroeconomic growth can conceal losses in productivity, technology access, composition, and future capacity.","source_ids":["GAO-RUSSIA-2025"],"source_records":[{"id":"GAO-RUSSIA-2025","title":"Russia Sanctions and Export Controls: Agencies Should Establish Targets to Better Assess Effectiveness","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-107079","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"2025-09-08"}]}],"revision_triggers":["Comparable sender-cost and target-outcome series","Measured evasion and rerouting premiums","Repeated policy changes tied to observed strategic effect"],"display_on_overview":false,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"?","label":"Insufficient basis","css_class":"insufficient"},"confidence_label":"Low"}}],"route":"/economic-industrial/trends","source_route":"/economic-industrial/sources","as_of_display":"August 8, 2026","sources":[{"id":"BEA-IIP-2026Q1","title":"U.S. International Investment Position, 2026 Q1","url":"https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-investment-position","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis","date":"2026-06-24"},{"id":"BIS-CHIPS-POLICY-2026","title":"Revised License Review Policy for Semiconductors Exported to China","url":"https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-revises-license-review-policy-semiconductors-exported-china","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security","date":"2026-01-13"},{"id":"BIS-EAR-744-2026","title":"Export Administration Regulations, Part 744","url":"https://www.bis.gov/regulations/ear/744","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security","date":"2026-07-27"},{"id":"CENSUS-AIES-2026","title":"Annual Integrated Economic Survey: Manufacturing Summary Statistics","url":"https://data.census.gov/table/AIESBASICTIMESERIES.AIES31BASIC01","publisher":"U.S. Census Bureau","date":"2026-02-26"},{"id":"COMMERCE-IPEF-2024","title":"IPEF Agreement Relating to Supply Chain Resilience","url":"https://www.commerce.gov/ipef/pillar-ii","publisher":"U.S. Department of Commerce","date":"2024-02-24"},{"id":"EU-ENERGY-2026","title":"Ending Russian Energy Imports","url":"https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/ending-russian-energy-imports/","publisher":"Council of the European Union","date":"2026-01-26"},{"id":"FED-DOLLAR-2026","title":"Fifth Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/fifth-conference-on-the-international-roles-of-the-u-s-dollar-stablecoins-digital-payments-and-the-ir-of-the-usd-20260716.html","publisher":"Federal Reserve Board","date":"2026-07-16"},{"id":"GAO-CHIPS-2025","title":"Semiconductors: Information on Projects Funded to Strengthen U.S. Supply Chain","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-107882","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"2025-12"},{"id":"GAO-EXPORT-CONTROLS-2024","title":"Export Controls: Commerce Implemented Advanced Semiconductor Rules and Took Steps to Address Compliance Challenges","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-107386","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"2024-12-02"},{"id":"GAO-RUSSIA-2025","title":"Russia Sanctions and Export Controls: Agencies Should Establish Targets to Better Assess Effectiveness","url":"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-107079","publisher":"U.S. Government Accountability Office","date":"2025-09-08"},{"id":"IEA-GAS-2026","title":"Gas Market Report, Q1 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/gas-market-report-q1-2026/executive-summary","publisher":"International Energy Agency","date":"2026 Q1"},{"id":"IEA-MINERALS-2026","title":"Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026","url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026/executive-summary","publisher":"International Energy Agency","date":"2026-07-16"},{"id":"IMF-COFER-2026Q1","title":"Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2026 Q1","url":"https://data.imf.org/en/news/imf%20data%20brief%20july%201","publisher":"International Monetary Fund","date":"2026-07-01"},{"id":"MARAD-STRATEGY-2026","title":"Independent Study in Support of a National Maritime Strategy","url":"https://www.maritime.dot.gov/data-reports/independent-study-in-support-of-a-national-maritime-strategy","publisher":"U.S. Maritime Administration","date":"2026-03-23"},{"id":"NSF-SE-2026","title":"The State of U.S. Science and Engineering 2026","url":"https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsbsep20261/overview","publisher":"National Science Board / NSF","date":"2026-05-04"},{"id":"OECD-SECURITY-2025","title":"Economic Security and Vulnerabilities in International Supply Chains","url":"https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2025/09/economic-security-in-a-changing-world_78f3b129/full-report/economic-security-and-vulnerabilities-in-international-supply-chains_dc88aefa.html","publisher":"Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development","date":"2025-09"},{"id":"OFAC-PROGRAMS-2026","title":"Sanctions Programs and Country Information","url":"https://ofac.treasury.gov/sanctions-programs-and-country-information","publisher":"U.S. Treasury, OFAC","date":"2026-07-24"},{"id":"PRC-AI-PLUS-2025","title":"State Council Opinion on Deepening the 'AI Plus' Initiative","url":"https://www.cac.gov.cn/2025-08/27/c_1758018277755538.htm","publisher":"PRC State Council","date":"2025-08-26"},{"id":"PRC-BRI-2023","title":"The Belt and Road Initiative: A Key Pillar of the Global Community of Shared Future","url":"https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/202310/10/content_WS6524b55fc6d0868f4e8e014c.html","publisher":"PRC State Council Information Office","date":"2023-10-10"},{"id":"PRC-EXPORT-LAW-2020","title":"Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China","url":"https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zfxxgk/gkml/art/2020/art_76b5fa416a4c42afa8af295eefffdffc.html","publisher":"National People's Congress of the PRC / PRC Ministry of Commerce","date":"2020-10-17"},{"id":"PRC-FYP14-2021","title":"14th Five-Year Plan and 2035 Long-Range Objectives","url":"https://www.miit.gov.cn/xwdt/szyw/art/2021/art_86371f315d484a36811c5c94298912fa.html","publisher":"PRC State Council / National People's Congress","date":"2021-03-13"},{"id":"PRC-IC-POLICY-2020","title":"Policies to Promote High-Quality Development of the Integrated-Circuit and Software Industries","url":"https://www.miit.gov.cn/xwdt/szyw/art/2020/art_b5059afaa450422a820648c635d653f6.html","publisher":"PRC State Council","date":"2020-08-04"},{"id":"PRC-MIIT-SHIP-2025","title":"China's Shipbuilding Retained the World's Largest Market Share in 2025","url":"https://www.miit.gov.cn/gxsj/tjfx/zbgy/mycb/art/2026/art_fc5e4ed1d3f5421885e6c3afff91cbbc.html","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Industry and Information Technology","date":"2026-02-01"},{"id":"PRC-MOFCOM-GA-GE-2023","title":"Export Controls on Gallium- and Germanium-Related Items","url":"https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/dwmygl/art/2023/art_52b9a321087f402bb3d310d18b07967e.html","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Commerce / General Administration of Customs","date":"2023-07-03"},{"id":"PRC-MOFCOM-GRAPHITE-2023","title":"Adjusted Export Controls on Graphite Items","url":"https://interview.mofcom.gov.cn/mofcom_interview/front/swfgk/article?id=20231003447368","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Commerce / General Administration of Customs","date":"2023-10-20"},{"id":"PRC-MOFCOM-REE-2025","title":"Export Controls on Selected Medium and Heavy Rare-Earth Items","url":"https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/jmxw/art/2025/art_a2284b3f7b8f4a59a6374f2009d5e36b.html","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Commerce / General Administration of Customs","date":"2025-04-04"},{"id":"PRC-NEA-RENEW-2025","title":"Grid-Connected Operation of Renewable Energy in 2025","url":"https://www.nea.gov.cn/20260212/742b8c6a078347b0b39de676c05c5d58/c.html","publisher":"PRC National Energy Administration","date":"2026-02-12"},{"id":"PRC-PBOC-RMB-2025","title":"RMB Internationalization Report 2025","url":"https://www.pbc.gov.cn/huobizhengceersi/214481/3871621/5885243/2025122616492523798.pdf","publisher":"People's Bank of China","date":"2025"},{"id":"PRC-UEL-2020","title":"Provisions on the Unreliable Entity List","url":"https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/dl/file/20211203230795.pdf","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Commerce","date":"2020-09-19"},{"id":"UNCTAD-MARITIME-2025","title":"Review of Maritime Transport 2025","url":"https://unctad.org/publication/review-maritime-transport-2025","publisher":"UN Trade and Development","date":"2025-09-24"},{"id":"UNIDO-Q1-2026","title":"World Manufacturing Production and Trade, 2026 Q1","url":"https://stat.unido.org/publications/qiip","publisher":"UN Industrial Development Organization","date":"2026-06-30"},{"id":"UNIDO-YEARBOOK-2025","title":"International Yearbook of Industrial Statistics 2025","url":"https://stat.unido.org/learning-center/international-yearbook-industrial-statistics-2025","publisher":"UN Industrial Development Organization","date":"2025-11-20"},{"id":"USGS-MCS-2026","title":"Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026","url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/mcs2026","publisher":"U.S. Geological Survey","date":"2026-05-27"},{"id":"WORLDBANK-LPI-2025","title":"Connecting to Compete 2025: Logistics Performance Indicators 2.0","url":"https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099042226142014971","publisher":"World Bank","date":"2026-04-22"}],"counts":{"items":8,"overview_signals":5,"directional_outlooks":5,"stable_outlooks":1,"insufficient_outlooks":2,"unique_sources":34}}