{"schema_version":"1.0","status":"published_trend_layer","public_launch":true,"public_route":"/information-influence/trends","public_api":"/api/v1/trends/information-influence","domain":"information-influence","domain_title":"Information & Influence","domain_number":4,"as_of":"2026-08-14","current_position_source":"docs/focuses/information-influence/domain-assessment.json","horizon":{"months":24,"through":"2028-08-14","basis":"Observed relative movement is carried forward only when current institutions, production and distribution systems, cultural markets, policy-message alignment, measured audiences, and demonstrated effects support persistence. Output and exposure are never promoted automatically into influence.","through_display":"August 14, 2028"},"review_schedule":{"six_month":"2027-02-14","twelve_month":"2027-08-14","event_driven":"Review earlier after a new matched reputation or source-trust panel, verified audience audit, major media-system restoration or disruption, platform ground-truth release, cultural revealed-choice update, or causal influence study.","six_month_display":"February 14, 2027","twelve_month_display":"August 14, 2027"},"method":{"observed":"Observed trajectory describes relative movement already visible in validated understanding, policy-message alignment, useful content performance, unduplicated consumption, credibility, cultural preference, conversion, integrity, or repeated learning evidence.","outlook":"The two-year outlook adjusts observed movement for executing institutional efforts, independent ecosystems, market and policy counterforces, platform defenses, adaptation, and observable revision triggers.","overview_rule":"A future overview arrow is eligible only for a moderate- or high-confidence outlook attached to a scored current position. Low confidence and insufficient evidence produce no arrow.","position_rule":"The published current position remains frozen. Direction does not move the marker, create a forecasted position, or convert attention and reputation into behavior."},"headline":"Which information advantages are gaining credible reach—and which are only gaining output?","summary":"The clearest movement is toward the PRC-centered system in narrative-policy alignment and in the narrowing of the longstanding U.S./partner cultural advantage. Current global reputation has also moved sharply toward China, while U.S. official international media and counter-influence institutions have been disrupted. Yet source-specific trust, natural-exposure persuasion, behavior, and learning remain too weakly measured for most downstream directional calls.","items":[{"id":"II-D01","title":"Information Understanding","detail_url":"/information-influence/review#ii-d01","current_position":"Insufficient comparative basis","current_confidence":"not_assessed","observed":{"direction":"insufficient_basis","confidence":"low","summary":"Both systems have substantial audience and environment research machinery, but no matched public portfolio validates pre-use insight accuracy, institutional use, error, and downstream improvement over time.","evidence":[{"text":"U.S. guidance requires country-context analysis, planning, monitoring, and evaluation, while USAGM reports a broad audience-research system.","source_ids":["II-S002","II-S010"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S002","title":"10 FAH-1 H-040: Strategic planning, reporting, and evaluations","url":"https://fam.state.gov/FAM/10FAH01/10FAH010040.html","publisher":"U.S. Department of State","date":"current through 2026-08-13","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"U.S. Department of State"},{"id":"II-S010","title":"FY 2024 Agency Performance Report","url":"https://www.usagm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/USAGM-FY-2024-Agency-Performance-Report_Final_1-17-25_WebVersion.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Agency for Global Media","date":"2025 publication covering FY2024","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"USAGM"}]},{"text":"PRC doctrine calls for audience differentiation, localization, and stronger international communication research, but publishes no matched prediction-and-outcome record.","source_ids":["II-S020","II-S023"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S020","title":"Xi stresses improving China's international communication capacity","url":"https://en.moj.gov.cn/2021-06/02/c_629007.htm","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Justice / Xinhua","date":"2021","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S023","title":"Tell China's story well and improve international communication","url":"https://www.cac.gov.cn/2020-05/12/c_1590838526095763.htm","publisher":"Cyberspace Administration of China","date":"2020","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"}]},{"text":"Current U.S. oversight reports institutional and measurement disruption rather than a comparable trend in insight accuracy.","source_ids":["II-S013","II-S014"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S013","title":"Independent auditor report on USAGM FY25 financial statements","url":"https://www.stateoig.gov/report/aud-fm-ib-26-10","publisher":"U.S. Department of State OIG","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"State OIG and USAGM"},{"id":"II-S014","title":"FY 2025 USAGM major management and performance challenges","url":"https://www.stateoig.gov/uploads/report/report_pdf_file/fy-2025-usagm-major-management-and-performance-challenges.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Department of State OIG","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"State OIG and USAGM"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"?","label":"Insufficient basis","css_class":"insufficient"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"outlook":{"direction":"insufficient_basis","confidence":"low","summary":"AI, data, surveys, and platform monitoring will increase analytical inputs on both sides, but public evidence cannot forecast which system will turn them into more accurate and useful decisions.","current_efforts":[{"text":"U.S. planning rules and USAGM research processes preserve a documented insight-to-program design.","source_ids":["II-S002","II-S010","II-S011"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S002","title":"10 FAH-1 H-040: Strategic planning, reporting, and evaluations","url":"https://fam.state.gov/FAM/10FAH01/10FAH010040.html","publisher":"U.S. Department of State","date":"current through 2026-08-13","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"U.S. Department of State"},{"id":"II-S010","title":"FY 2024 Agency Performance Report","url":"https://www.usagm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/USAGM-FY-2024-Agency-Performance-Report_Final_1-17-25_WebVersion.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Agency for Global Media","date":"2025 publication covering FY2024","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"USAGM"},{"id":"II-S011","title":"Strategic Plan 2022-2026, 2024 update","url":"https://www.usagm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Strategic-Plan-2022-2026_Update_1-27-25-2.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Agency for Global Media","date":"2024","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"USAGM"}]},{"text":"PRC central doctrine continues to emphasize differentiated audiences, localization, and evaluation.","source_ids":["II-S020","II-S023"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S020","title":"Xi stresses improving China's international communication capacity","url":"https://en.moj.gov.cn/2021-06/02/c_629007.htm","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Justice / Xinhua","date":"2021","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S023","title":"Tell China's story well and improve international communication","url":"https://www.cac.gov.cn/2020-05/12/c_1590838526095763.htm","publisher":"Cyberspace Administration of China","date":"2020","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"U.S. institutional disruption and PRC opacity obscure whether analysis reaches decision makers or corrects failed designs.","source_ids":["II-S013","II-S014","II-S020"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S013","title":"Independent auditor report on USAGM FY25 financial statements","url":"https://www.stateoig.gov/report/aud-fm-ib-26-10","publisher":"U.S. Department of State OIG","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"State OIG and USAGM"},{"id":"II-S014","title":"FY 2025 USAGM major management and performance challenges","url":"https://www.stateoig.gov/uploads/report/report_pdf_file/fy-2025-usagm-major-management-and-performance-challenges.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Department of State OIG","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"State OIG and USAGM"},{"id":"II-S020","title":"Xi stresses improving China's international communication capacity","url":"https://en.moj.gov.cn/2021-06/02/c_629007.htm","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Justice / Xinhua","date":"2021","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"}]},{"text":"Research capacity, surveillance, data volume, and doctrine are inputs rather than validated understanding.","source_ids":["II-S002","II-S023"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S002","title":"10 FAH-1 H-040: Strategic planning, reporting, and evaluations","url":"https://fam.state.gov/FAM/10FAH01/10FAH010040.html","publisher":"U.S. Department of State","date":"current through 2026-08-13","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"U.S. Department of State"},{"id":"II-S023","title":"Tell China's story well and improve international communication","url":"https://www.cac.gov.cn/2020-05/12/c_1590838526095763.htm","publisher":"Cyberspace Administration of China","date":"2020","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"}]}],"revision_triggers":["Matched prediction-versus-outcome portfolios","Documented design changes caused by audience insight","Repeated comparable error and correction rates"],"display_on_overview":false,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"?","label":"Insufficient basis","css_class":"insufficient"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"position":null},{"id":"II-D02","title":"Narrative Policy","detail_url":"/information-influence/review#ii-d02","current_position":"PRC-centered edge","current_confidence":"low","observed":{"direction":"toward_prc","confidence":"moderate","summary":"Sustained PRC policy-message centralization now coincides with unusually broad U.S. policy and institutional discontinuities, while bounded experiments show that selected PRC performance narratives can persuade.","evidence":[{"text":"Multi-year PRC doctrine connects party-state policy, development and performance narratives, culture, state media, localization, and international communication under central direction.","source_ids":["II-S020","II-S021","II-S023","II-S024"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S020","title":"Xi stresses improving China's international communication capacity","url":"https://en.moj.gov.cn/2021-06/02/c_629007.htm","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Justice / Xinhua","date":"2021","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S021","title":"Report to the 20th CPC National Congress: culture and communication excerpts","url":"https://english.www.gov.cn/news/topnews/202210/16/content_WS634b9299c6d0a757729e14ab.html","publisher":"State Council of the PRC","date":"2022","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S023","title":"Tell China's story well and improve international communication","url":"https://www.cac.gov.cn/2020-05/12/c_1590838526095763.htm","publisher":"Cyberspace Administration of China","date":"2020","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S024","title":"Building China's cyberspace community with a shared future","url":"https://english.scio.gov.cn/m/pressroom/2022-11/15/content_78520349_10.htm","publisher":"State Council Information Office","date":"2022","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"}]},{"text":"A preregistered 19-country experiment found selected Chinese state-media performance messages could move attitudes, while another experiment found combative messaging ineffective or counterproductive.","source_ids":["II-S049","II-S050"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S049","title":"Chinese state media persuades a global audience that the China model is superior","url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12887","publisher":"Mattingly et al.","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Academic research team"},{"id":"II-S050","title":"When does public diplomacy work? Evidence from China's wolf-warrior diplomats","url":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods/article/when-does-public-diplomacy-work-evidence-from-chinas-wolf-warrior-diplomats/7C36B5891C2A1A7769F936D5F389A9F6","publisher":"Political Science Research and Methods","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Academic research team"}]},{"text":"U.S. disruption to international media and counter-influence institutions, alongside aid-policy contradiction, widened the gap between longstanding reliability/freedom narratives and observed conduct.","source_ids":["II-S013","II-S014","II-S015","II-S067"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S013","title":"Independent auditor report on USAGM FY25 financial statements","url":"https://www.stateoig.gov/report/aud-fm-ib-26-10","publisher":"U.S. Department of State OIG","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"State OIG and USAGM"},{"id":"II-S014","title":"FY 2025 USAGM major management and performance challenges","url":"https://www.stateoig.gov/uploads/report/report_pdf_file/fy-2025-usagm-major-management-and-performance-challenges.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Department of State OIG","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"State OIG and USAGM"},{"id":"II-S015","title":"Termination of the Global Engagement Center","url":"https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12475","publisher":"Congressional Research Service","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"U.S. Congress"},{"id":"II-S067","title":"Aid cuts and U.S. soft power in the Middle East","url":"https://www.arabbarometer.org/2025/03/trumps-aid-cuts-sever-stalwart-of-u-s-soft-power-in-the-middle-east/","publisher":"Arab Barometer","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Arab Barometer"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"←","label":"Toward PRC advantage","css_class":"toward-prc"},"confidence_label":"Moderate"},"outlook":{"direction":"toward_prc","confidence":"moderate","summary":"PRC alignment is likely to persist over two years, while U.S. direction depends on repairing policy-message continuity and institutional capacity. Censorship, conduct contradictions, and audience backlash prevent a stronger call.","current_efforts":[{"text":"PRC doctrine and institutional networks continue to align national narrative, cultural output, state media, and localized communication.","source_ids":["II-S020","II-S021","II-S025","II-S026"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S020","title":"Xi stresses improving China's international communication capacity","url":"https://en.moj.gov.cn/2021-06/02/c_629007.htm","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Justice / Xinhua","date":"2021","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S021","title":"Report to the 20th CPC National Congress: culture and communication excerpts","url":"https://english.www.gov.cn/news/topnews/202210/16/content_WS634b9299c6d0a757729e14ab.html","publisher":"State Council of the PRC","date":"2022","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S025","title":"About CGTN","url":"https://www.cgtn.com/about-us","publisher":"CGTN","date":"current page accessed 2026-08-13","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"China Media Group"},{"id":"II-S026","title":"Xinhua global bureau network report","url":"https://english.news.cn/20251110/e0f9050228d746f798972085696526d4/c.html","publisher":"Xinhua","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Xinhua"}]},{"text":"U.S. planning rules, diplomats, independent media, universities, civil society, and cultural producers retain multiple pathways for credible narrative repair.","source_ids":["II-S001","II-S002","II-S011"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S001","title":"10 FAH-1 H-020: Public diplomacy at posts abroad","url":"https://fam.state.gov/FAM/10FAH01/10FAH010020.html","publisher":"U.S. Department of State","date":"current through 2026-08-13","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"U.S. Department of State"},{"id":"II-S002","title":"10 FAH-1 H-040: Strategic planning, reporting, and evaluations","url":"https://fam.state.gov/FAM/10FAH01/10FAH010040.html","publisher":"U.S. Department of State","date":"current through 2026-08-13","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"U.S. Department of State"},{"id":"II-S011","title":"Strategic Plan 2022-2026, 2024 update","url":"https://www.usagm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Strategic-Plan-2022-2026_Update_1-27-25-2.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Agency for Global Media","date":"2024","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"USAGM"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"PRC censorship and claim-conduct contradictions can conceal rather than repair error, while combative messages can backfire.","source_ids":["II-S050","II-S052","II-S054"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S050","title":"When does public diplomacy work? Evidence from China's wolf-warrior diplomats","url":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods/article/when-does-public-diplomacy-work-evidence-from-chinas-wolf-warrior-diplomats/7C36B5891C2A1A7769F936D5F389A9F6","publisher":"Political Science Research and Methods","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Academic research team"},{"id":"II-S052","title":"Beijing's Global Media Influence 2022","url":"https://freedomhouse.org/report/beijing-global-media-influence/2022/authoritarian-expansion-power-democratic-resilience","publisher":"Freedom House","date":"2022","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Freedom House"},{"id":"II-S054","title":"Freedom on the Net 2025: China","url":"https://freedomhouse.org/country/china/freedom-net/2025","publisher":"Freedom House","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Freedom House"}]},{"text":"U.S. pluralism reduces central consistency but can create independently credible voices and successful bounded persuasion.","source_ids":["II-S051","II-S055","II-S057"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S051","title":"The sound of silence: Championing democracy in an authoritarian society","url":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/sound-of-silence-championing-democracy-in-an-authoritarian-society/8C61A22C16E67151532D6C9909AA74C6","publisher":"Perspectives on Politics","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Academic research team"},{"id":"II-S055","title":"Freedom on the Net 2025: United States","url":"https://freedomhouse.org/country/united-states/freedom-net/2025","publisher":"Freedom House","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Freedom House"},{"id":"II-S057","title":"United States country profile and World Press Freedom Index","url":"https://rsf.org/en/country/united-states","publisher":"Reporters Without Borders","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"RSF"}]}],"revision_triggers":["Durable U.S. policy-message and institutional repair","A major PRC contradiction-and-repair event with matched audience evidence","Natural-exposure persuasion and persistence studies across both systems"],"display_on_overview":true,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"←","label":"Toward PRC advantage","css_class":"toward-prc"},"confidence_label":"Moderate"},"position":25},{"id":"II-D03","title":"Content Agility","detail_url":"/information-influence/review#ii-d03","current_position":"Contested","current_confidence":"low","observed":{"direction":"toward_prc","confidence":"low","summary":"PRC networks and AI-enabled operations are increasing multilingual production speed and scale, but observed campaigns often fail to gain organic engagement and no matched latency-quality series exists.","evidence":[{"text":"PRC state-media networks claim extensive multilingual and global production capacity, while audiovisual and cultural export systems continue to expand.","source_ids":["II-S025","II-S026","II-S030"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S025","title":"About CGTN","url":"https://www.cgtn.com/about-us","publisher":"CGTN","date":"current page accessed 2026-08-13","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"China Media Group"},{"id":"II-S026","title":"Xinhua global bureau network report","url":"https://english.news.cn/20251110/e0f9050228d746f798972085696526d4/c.html","publisher":"Xinhua","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Xinhua"},{"id":"II-S030","title":"China audiovisual exports report","url":"https://english.scio.gov.cn/m/pressroom/2025-09/26/content_118099445.html","publisher":"State Council Information Office","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"}]},{"text":"OpenAI and independent reporting document PRC-linked use of AI for rapid, localized policy content, but no meaningful breakout was observed in the platform cases.","source_ids":["II-S062","II-S068"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S062","title":"Disrupting PRC-linked influence operations using AI in U.S. policy debates","url":"https://openai.com/index/prc-linked-influence-operations-ai-debates/","publisher":"OpenAI","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"OpenAI"},{"id":"II-S068","title":"PRC-linked AI content production and influence reporting","url":"https://apnews.com/article/8b74148007a3906cef85534eead1d7c8","publisher":"Associated Press","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Associated Press"}]},{"text":"Google documented enormous DRAGONBRIDGE production with exceptionally low organic engagement, separating output scale from useful uptake.","source_ids":["II-S058","II-S059"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S058","title":"New efforts to disrupt DRAGONBRIDGE spam activity","url":"https://blog.google/threat-analysis-group/google-disrupted-dragonbridge-activity-q1-2024/","publisher":"Google Threat Analysis Group","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Google"},{"id":"II-S059","title":"TAG Bulletin Q2 2025","url":"https://blog.google/threat-analysis-group/tag-bulletin-q2-2025/","publisher":"Google Threat Analysis Group","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Google"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"←","label":"Toward PRC advantage","css_class":"toward-prc"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"outlook":{"direction":"toward_prc","confidence":"low","summary":"Automation and central production networks should further expand PRC output capacity, but quality, correction, localization, and uptake may remain binding constraints. Confidence is too low for an arrow.","current_efforts":[{"text":"PRC state-media, cultural-export, and AI-enabled networks provide a scalable base for faster multilingual production.","source_ids":["II-S025","II-S026","II-S030","II-S062"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S025","title":"About CGTN","url":"https://www.cgtn.com/about-us","publisher":"CGTN","date":"current page accessed 2026-08-13","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"China Media Group"},{"id":"II-S026","title":"Xinhua global bureau network report","url":"https://english.news.cn/20251110/e0f9050228d746f798972085696526d4/c.html","publisher":"Xinhua","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Xinhua"},{"id":"II-S030","title":"China audiovisual exports report","url":"https://english.scio.gov.cn/m/pressroom/2025-09/26/content_118099445.html","publisher":"State Council Information Office","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S062","title":"Disrupting PRC-linked influence operations using AI in U.S. policy debates","url":"https://openai.com/index/prc-linked-influence-operations-ai-debates/","publisher":"OpenAI","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"OpenAI"}]},{"text":"The U.S. retains local diplomatic, editorially independent media, commercial, civil-society, and platform ecosystems capable of rapid decentralized response.","source_ids":["II-S001","II-S011","II-S063"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S001","title":"10 FAH-1 H-020: Public diplomacy at posts abroad","url":"https://fam.state.gov/FAM/10FAH01/10FAH010020.html","publisher":"U.S. Department of State","date":"current through 2026-08-13","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"U.S. Department of State"},{"id":"II-S011","title":"Strategic Plan 2022-2026, 2024 update","url":"https://www.usagm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Strategic-Plan-2022-2026_Update_1-27-25-2.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Agency for Global Media","date":"2024","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"USAGM"},{"id":"II-S063","title":"Disrupting malicious uses of AI: 2025 report","url":"https://openai.com/global-affairs/disrupting-malicious-uses-of-ai/","publisher":"OpenAI","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"OpenAI"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"Detected PRC-linked campaigns repeatedly show weak organic engagement and can be removed at scale.","source_ids":["II-S058","II-S059","II-S062"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S058","title":"New efforts to disrupt DRAGONBRIDGE spam activity","url":"https://blog.google/threat-analysis-group/google-disrupted-dragonbridge-activity-q1-2024/","publisher":"Google Threat Analysis Group","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Google"},{"id":"II-S059","title":"TAG Bulletin Q2 2025","url":"https://blog.google/threat-analysis-group/tag-bulletin-q2-2025/","publisher":"Google Threat Analysis Group","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Google"},{"id":"II-S062","title":"Disrupting PRC-linked influence operations using AI in U.S. policy debates","url":"https://openai.com/index/prc-linked-influence-operations-ai-debates/","publisher":"OpenAI","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"OpenAI"}]},{"text":"No common event series measures useful production latency, error, correction, localization quality, exposure, and downstream uptake across the two systems.","source_ids":["II-S010","II-S025","II-S068"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S010","title":"FY 2024 Agency Performance Report","url":"https://www.usagm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/USAGM-FY-2024-Agency-Performance-Report_Final_1-17-25_WebVersion.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Agency for Global Media","date":"2025 publication covering FY2024","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"USAGM"},{"id":"II-S025","title":"About CGTN","url":"https://www.cgtn.com/about-us","publisher":"CGTN","date":"current page accessed 2026-08-13","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"China Media Group"},{"id":"II-S068","title":"PRC-linked AI content production and influence reporting","url":"https://apnews.com/article/8b74148007a3906cef85534eead1d7c8","publisher":"Associated Press","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Associated Press"}]}],"revision_triggers":["Matched event-level latency and quality data","Repeated organic uptake by target audiences","Comparable correction, localization, and persistence rates"],"display_on_overview":false,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"←","label":"Toward PRC advantage","css_class":"toward-prc"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"position":50},{"id":"II-D04","title":"Distribution Reach","detail_url":"/information-influence/review#ii-d04","current_position":"U.S. / partner edge","current_confidence":"low","observed":{"direction":"toward_prc","confidence":"moderate","summary":"PRC state-media and cultural distribution networks continue to expand while the strongest method-documented U.S. official global-media system experienced severe institutional disruption after its last full audience audit.","evidence":[{"text":"USAGM reported 427 million unduplicated weekly consumers in FY2024, the strongest method-documented global consumption baseline in the domain.","source_ids":["II-S010"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S010","title":"FY 2024 Agency Performance Report","url":"https://www.usagm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/USAGM-FY-2024-Agency-Performance-Report_Final_1-17-25_WebVersion.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Agency for Global Media","date":"2025 publication covering FY2024","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"USAGM"}]},{"text":"Current oversight records describe major USAGM continuity, management, and operating disruption after that audience baseline, with no equivalent post-disruption consumption audit.","source_ids":["II-S013","II-S014"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S013","title":"Independent auditor report on USAGM FY25 financial statements","url":"https://www.stateoig.gov/report/aud-fm-ib-26-10","publisher":"U.S. Department of State OIG","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"State OIG and USAGM"},{"id":"II-S014","title":"FY 2025 USAGM major management and performance challenges","url":"https://www.stateoig.gov/uploads/report/report_pdf_file/fy-2025-usagm-major-management-and-performance-challenges.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Department of State OIG","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"State OIG and USAGM"}]},{"text":"CGTN, Xinhua, and PRC cultural distributors report expanding bureaus, languages, availability, and export reach, but do not publish a comparable unduplicated-consumption series.","source_ids":["II-S025","II-S026","II-S030","II-S031"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S025","title":"About CGTN","url":"https://www.cgtn.com/about-us","publisher":"CGTN","date":"current page accessed 2026-08-13","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"China Media Group"},{"id":"II-S026","title":"Xinhua global bureau network report","url":"https://english.news.cn/20251110/e0f9050228d746f798972085696526d4/c.html","publisher":"Xinhua","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Xinhua"},{"id":"II-S030","title":"China audiovisual exports report","url":"https://english.scio.gov.cn/m/pressroom/2025-09/26/content_118099445.html","publisher":"State Council Information Office","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S031","title":"Games and cultural exports report","url":"https://chinaipr.mofcom.gov.cn/article/centralgovernment/202603/1995577.html","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Commerce","date":"2026","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"←","label":"Toward PRC advantage","css_class":"toward-prc"},"confidence_label":"Moderate"},"outlook":{"direction":"toward_prc","confidence":"low","summary":"Official-system movement favors the PRC, but the broader U.S./partner ecosystem includes autonomous global platforms, commercial media, universities, entertainment, diaspora, and partner messengers that are not captured by USAGM disruption alone.","current_efforts":[{"text":"PRC state-media and cultural export networks are adding production and distribution pathways across regions and formats.","source_ids":["II-S025","II-S026","II-S030","II-S031"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S025","title":"About CGTN","url":"https://www.cgtn.com/about-us","publisher":"CGTN","date":"current page accessed 2026-08-13","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"China Media Group"},{"id":"II-S026","title":"Xinhua global bureau network report","url":"https://english.news.cn/20251110/e0f9050228d746f798972085696526d4/c.html","publisher":"Xinhua","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Xinhua"},{"id":"II-S030","title":"China audiovisual exports report","url":"https://english.scio.gov.cn/m/pressroom/2025-09/26/content_118099445.html","publisher":"State Council Information Office","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S031","title":"Games and cultural exports report","url":"https://chinaipr.mofcom.gov.cn/article/centralgovernment/202603/1995577.html","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Commerce","date":"2026","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"}]},{"text":"USAGM retains an established network, audience-research method, and editorial architecture that could support recovery if operating continuity returns.","source_ids":["II-S010","II-S011","II-S012"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S010","title":"FY 2024 Agency Performance Report","url":"https://www.usagm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/USAGM-FY-2024-Agency-Performance-Report_Final_1-17-25_WebVersion.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Agency for Global Media","date":"2025 publication covering FY2024","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"USAGM"},{"id":"II-S011","title":"Strategic Plan 2022-2026, 2024 update","url":"https://www.usagm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Strategic-Plan-2022-2026_Update_1-27-25-2.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Agency for Global Media","date":"2024","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"USAGM"},{"id":"II-S012","title":"FY 2026 Congressional Budget Justification","url":"https://www.usagm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/USAGM-FY-2026-CBJ-Master.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Agency for Global Media","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"USAGM"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"Availability, bureaus, followers, exports, and removed accounts do not establish unduplicated sustained consumption.","source_ids":["II-S025","II-S026","II-S047","II-S059"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S025","title":"About CGTN","url":"https://www.cgtn.com/about-us","publisher":"CGTN","date":"current page accessed 2026-08-13","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"China Media Group"},{"id":"II-S026","title":"Xinhua global bureau network report","url":"https://english.news.cn/20251110/e0f9050228d746f798972085696526d4/c.html","publisher":"Xinhua","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Xinhua"},{"id":"II-S047","title":"China's Global Public Diplomacy Dashboard, version 3","url":"https://www.aiddata.org/data/chinas-global-public-diplomacy-dashboard-dataset-version-3","publisher":"AidData","date":"current dataset","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"AidData"},{"id":"II-S059","title":"TAG Bulletin Q2 2025","url":"https://blog.google/threat-analysis-group/tag-bulletin-q2-2025/","publisher":"Google Threat Analysis Group","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Google"}]},{"text":"Independent U.S./partner cultural and information networks remain globally attractive and are not centrally taskable or fully countable.","source_ids":["II-S039","II-S041","II-S042"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S039","title":"Asia Power Index: Cultural influence","url":"https://power.lowyinstitute.org/explore/cultural-influence/","publisher":"Lowy Institute","date":"2025 edition","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Lowy Institute"},{"id":"II-S041","title":"Open Doors 2025 press release","url":"https://www.iie.org/news/open-doors-2025-press-release/","publisher":"Institute of International Education","date":"2025; academic year 2024/25","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"IIE Open Doors"},{"id":"II-S042","title":"2025 Duolingo Language Report","url":"https://blog.duolingo.com/2025-duolingo-language-report/","publisher":"Duolingo","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Duolingo"}]}],"revision_triggers":["A post-disruption USAGM audience audit","Comparable unduplicated CGTN and Xinhua consumption data","Matched resilience and actual-consumption measures across official and independent channels"],"display_on_overview":false,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"←","label":"Toward PRC advantage","css_class":"toward-prc"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"position":75},{"id":"II-D05","title":"Credibility & Trust","detail_url":"/information-influence/review#ii-d05","current_position":"Contested","current_confidence":"moderate","observed":{"direction":"toward_prc","confidence":"moderate","summary":"Independent global surveys record a major current shift toward China in country favorability and leadership approval, but those measures do not isolate trust in information sources or messengers.","evidence":[{"text":"Pew's 2026 36-country survey found China viewed more favorably than the United States in most surveyed countries, reversing the broader 2024 pattern in its then-current sample.","source_ids":["II-S034"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S034","title":"People in many countries now view China more positively than the U.S.","url":"https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2026/07/15/people-in-many-countries-now-view-china-more-positively-than-the-u-s/","publisher":"Pew Research Center","date":"2026-07-15; fieldwork 2026-02-08 to 2026-05-13","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Pew Research Center"}]},{"text":"Gallup's 2025 surveys across more than 130 countries recorded median Chinese-leadership approval of 36 percent versus 31 percent for U.S. leadership, China's widest advantage in nearly two decades.","source_ids":["II-S035"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S035","title":"China edges past U.S. in global approval ratings","url":"https://news.gallup.com/poll/707945/china-edges-past-global-approval-ratings.aspx","publisher":"Gallup","date":"2026-04-03; 2025 surveys","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Gallup World Poll"}]},{"text":"Press-freedom and digital-news evidence shows serious credibility constraints on both systems but is not a matched foreign-source trust panel.","source_ids":["II-S054","II-S055","II-S056","II-S057","II-S064"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S054","title":"Freedom on the Net 2025: China","url":"https://freedomhouse.org/country/china/freedom-net/2025","publisher":"Freedom House","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Freedom House"},{"id":"II-S055","title":"Freedom on the Net 2025: United States","url":"https://freedomhouse.org/country/united-states/freedom-net/2025","publisher":"Freedom House","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Freedom House"},{"id":"II-S056","title":"China country profile and World Press Freedom Index","url":"https://rsf.org/en/country/china","publisher":"Reporters Without Borders","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"RSF"},{"id":"II-S057","title":"United States country profile and World Press Freedom Index","url":"https://rsf.org/en/country/united-states","publisher":"Reporters Without Borders","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"RSF"},{"id":"II-S064","title":"Digital News Report 2026 executive summary","url":"https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2026/dnr-executive-summary","publisher":"Reuters Institute","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Reuters Institute"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"←","label":"Toward PRC advantage","css_class":"toward-prc"},"confidence_label":"Moderate"},"outlook":{"direction":"insufficient_basis","confidence":"low","summary":"The current reputation shift is consequential but policy- and leader-sensitive. Without repeated source-specific trust panels, its persistence and conversion into informational credibility cannot be forecast responsibly.","current_efforts":[{"text":"PRC performance, development, cultural, and shared-future narratives have a continuing centrally supported distribution system.","source_ids":["II-S020","II-S021","II-S049"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S020","title":"Xi stresses improving China's international communication capacity","url":"https://en.moj.gov.cn/2021-06/02/c_629007.htm","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Justice / Xinhua","date":"2021","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S021","title":"Report to the 20th CPC National Congress: culture and communication excerpts","url":"https://english.www.gov.cn/news/topnews/202210/16/content_WS634b9299c6d0a757729e14ab.html","publisher":"State Council of the PRC","date":"2022","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S049","title":"Chinese state media persuades a global audience that the China model is superior","url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12887","publisher":"Mattingly et al.","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Academic research team"}]},{"text":"U.S./partner open contestation, independent correction, and plural messengers preserve credibility-repair mechanisms despite current policy contradictions.","source_ids":["II-S051","II-S055","II-S057"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S051","title":"The sound of silence: Championing democracy in an authoritarian society","url":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/sound-of-silence-championing-democracy-in-an-authoritarian-society/8C61A22C16E67151532D6C9909AA74C6","publisher":"Perspectives on Politics","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Academic research team"},{"id":"II-S055","title":"Freedom on the Net 2025: United States","url":"https://freedomhouse.org/country/united-states/freedom-net/2025","publisher":"Freedom House","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Freedom House"},{"id":"II-S057","title":"United States country profile and World Press Freedom Index","url":"https://rsf.org/en/country/united-states","publisher":"Reporters Without Borders","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"RSF"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"Country and leader approval can move rapidly with policy and is not trust in a named source, message, or messenger.","source_ids":["II-S034","II-S035"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S034","title":"People in many countries now view China more positively than the U.S.","url":"https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2026/07/15/people-in-many-countries-now-view-china-more-positively-than-the-u-s/","publisher":"Pew Research Center","date":"2026-07-15; fieldwork 2026-02-08 to 2026-05-13","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Pew Research Center"},{"id":"II-S035","title":"China edges past U.S. in global approval ratings","url":"https://news.gallup.com/poll/707945/china-edges-past-global-approval-ratings.aspx","publisher":"Gallup","date":"2026-04-03; 2025 surveys","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Gallup World Poll"}]},{"text":"Censorship, press-freedom decline, polarization, disinformation, and inconsistent policy impose different credibility costs that existing global panels do not combine validly.","source_ids":["II-S054","II-S055","II-S056","II-S057","II-S064"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S054","title":"Freedom on the Net 2025: China","url":"https://freedomhouse.org/country/china/freedom-net/2025","publisher":"Freedom House","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Freedom House"},{"id":"II-S055","title":"Freedom on the Net 2025: United States","url":"https://freedomhouse.org/country/united-states/freedom-net/2025","publisher":"Freedom House","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Freedom House"},{"id":"II-S056","title":"China country profile and World Press Freedom Index","url":"https://rsf.org/en/country/china","publisher":"Reporters Without Borders","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"RSF"},{"id":"II-S057","title":"United States country profile and World Press Freedom Index","url":"https://rsf.org/en/country/united-states","publisher":"Reporters Without Borders","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"RSF"},{"id":"II-S064","title":"Digital News Report 2026 executive summary","url":"https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2026/dnr-executive-summary","publisher":"Reuters Institute","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Reuters Institute"}]}],"revision_triggers":["A repeated 2027 global favorability and leadership panel","Matched named-source and messenger trust data","Observed correction and trust recovery after comparable policy shocks"],"display_on_overview":false,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"?","label":"Insufficient basis","css_class":"insufficient"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"position":50},{"id":"II-D06","title":"Cultural Influence","detail_url":"/information-influence/review#ii-d06","current_position":"U.S. / partner edge","current_confidence":"moderate","observed":{"direction":"toward_prc","confidence":"moderate","summary":"U.S./partner cultural attraction and revealed choices remain stronger, while convergent indicators show China gaining faster through games, audiovisual exports, travel, language access, and broader nation-brand familiarity.","evidence":[{"text":"Global and Indo-Pacific soft-power and cultural indicators continue to place the United States ahead while identifying China as a leading or fastest-rising competitor.","source_ids":["II-S036","II-S037","II-S039"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S036","title":"Global Soft Power Index 2026 executive summary","url":"https://brandfinance.com/insights/global-soft-power-index-2026-executive-summary","publisher":"Brand Finance","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Brand Finance"},{"id":"II-S037","title":"Global Soft Power Index 2026 full report","url":"https://static.brandirectory.com/reports/brand-finance-soft-power-index-2026-digital.pdf","publisher":"Brand Finance","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Brand Finance"},{"id":"II-S039","title":"Asia Power Index: Cultural influence","url":"https://power.lowyinstitute.org/explore/cultural-influence/","publisher":"Lowy Institute","date":"2025 edition","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Lowy Institute"}]},{"text":"PRC games, audiovisual, film, tourism, language, and cultural-industry records show rapid growth in cultural supply and foreign contact, though most establish exposure rather than durable affinity.","source_ids":["II-S027","II-S028","II-S029","II-S030","II-S031","II-S032","II-S033"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S027","title":"National cultural export key enterprises and projects","url":"https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/xwfb/rcxwfb/art/2025/art_a3d5cc1d51e9482eb44931d8b0bd1ea2.html","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Commerce","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S028","title":"Chinese language learning and digital education platform report","url":"https://hudong.moe.gov.cn/jyb_xwfb/s5147/202504/t20250401_1185738.html","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Education","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC Ministry of Education"},{"id":"II-S029","title":"Visa-free entry statistics","url":"https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/statistics/202507/23/content_WS68809ee1c6d0868f4e8f45fb.html","publisher":"State Council of the PRC","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC government"},{"id":"II-S030","title":"China audiovisual exports report","url":"https://english.scio.gov.cn/m/pressroom/2025-09/26/content_118099445.html","publisher":"State Council Information Office","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S031","title":"Games and cultural exports report","url":"https://chinaipr.mofcom.gov.cn/article/centralgovernment/202603/1995577.html","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Commerce","date":"2026","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S032","title":"Chinese film international distribution report","url":"https://www.chinafilm.gov.cn/xwzx/gzdt/202510/t20251024_936523.html","publisher":"China Film Administration","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S033","title":"Cultural industry and export development report","url":"https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/wsdwhfz/202605/t20260526_1405491.html","publisher":"PRC National Development and Reform Commission","date":"2026","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"}]},{"text":"Study and language-learning choices remain strongly U.S./English oriented, with utility, visa, price, and platform-selection confounders.","source_ids":["II-S041","II-S042"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S041","title":"Open Doors 2025 press release","url":"https://www.iie.org/news/open-doors-2025-press-release/","publisher":"Institute of International Education","date":"2025; academic year 2024/25","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"IIE Open Doors"},{"id":"II-S042","title":"2025 Duolingo Language Report","url":"https://blog.duolingo.com/2025-duolingo-language-report/","publisher":"Duolingo","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Duolingo"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"←","label":"Toward PRC advantage","css_class":"toward-prc"},"confidence_label":"Moderate"},"outlook":{"direction":"toward_prc","confidence":"moderate","summary":"China is likely to continue narrowing the existing U.S./partner advantage as commercial cultural products and easier contact reach wider audiences. The call is narrowing, not a forecasted change in position, because affinity, preference persistence, and behavior remain undermeasured.","current_efforts":[{"text":"PRC policy supports cultural exporters, digital education, audiovisual distribution, games, film, and inbound contact at expanding scale.","source_ids":["II-S027","II-S028","II-S029","II-S030","II-S031","II-S032","II-S033"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S027","title":"National cultural export key enterprises and projects","url":"https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/xwfb/rcxwfb/art/2025/art_a3d5cc1d51e9482eb44931d8b0bd1ea2.html","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Commerce","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S028","title":"Chinese language learning and digital education platform report","url":"https://hudong.moe.gov.cn/jyb_xwfb/s5147/202504/t20250401_1185738.html","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Education","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC Ministry of Education"},{"id":"II-S029","title":"Visa-free entry statistics","url":"https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/statistics/202507/23/content_WS68809ee1c6d0868f4e8f45fb.html","publisher":"State Council of the PRC","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC government"},{"id":"II-S030","title":"China audiovisual exports report","url":"https://english.scio.gov.cn/m/pressroom/2025-09/26/content_118099445.html","publisher":"State Council Information Office","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S031","title":"Games and cultural exports report","url":"https://chinaipr.mofcom.gov.cn/article/centralgovernment/202603/1995577.html","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Commerce","date":"2026","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S032","title":"Chinese film international distribution report","url":"https://www.chinafilm.gov.cn/xwzx/gzdt/202510/t20251024_936523.html","publisher":"China Film Administration","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S033","title":"Cultural industry and export development report","url":"https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/wsdwhfz/202605/t20260526_1405491.html","publisher":"PRC National Development and Reform Commission","date":"2026","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"}]},{"text":"U.S./partner universities, English-language utility, entertainment, technology platforms, and independently produced culture retain strong revealed-choice and attraction advantages.","source_ids":["II-S039","II-S041","II-S042"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S039","title":"Asia Power Index: Cultural influence","url":"https://power.lowyinstitute.org/explore/cultural-influence/","publisher":"Lowy Institute","date":"2025 edition","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Lowy Institute"},{"id":"II-S041","title":"Open Doors 2025 press release","url":"https://www.iie.org/news/open-doors-2025-press-release/","publisher":"Institute of International Education","date":"2025; academic year 2024/25","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"IIE Open Doors"},{"id":"II-S042","title":"2025 Duolingo Language Report","url":"https://blog.duolingo.com/2025-duolingo-language-report/","publisher":"Duolingo","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Duolingo"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"Revenue, downloads, entries, screenings, language participation, and export status are exposure measures and may not persist as affinity or preference.","source_ids":["II-S028","II-S029","II-S030","II-S031","II-S032"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S028","title":"Chinese language learning and digital education platform report","url":"https://hudong.moe.gov.cn/jyb_xwfb/s5147/202504/t20250401_1185738.html","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Education","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC Ministry of Education"},{"id":"II-S029","title":"Visa-free entry statistics","url":"https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/statistics/202507/23/content_WS68809ee1c6d0868f4e8f45fb.html","publisher":"State Council of the PRC","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC government"},{"id":"II-S030","title":"China audiovisual exports report","url":"https://english.scio.gov.cn/m/pressroom/2025-09/26/content_118099445.html","publisher":"State Council Information Office","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S031","title":"Games and cultural exports report","url":"https://chinaipr.mofcom.gov.cn/article/centralgovernment/202603/1995577.html","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Commerce","date":"2026","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S032","title":"Chinese film international distribution report","url":"https://www.chinafilm.gov.cn/xwzx/gzdt/202510/t20251024_936523.html","publisher":"China Film Administration","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"}]},{"text":"The U.S./partner cultural ecosystem is decentralized and commercially adaptive, while broad current preference indicators still favor it in many high-consequence choices.","source_ids":["II-S036","II-S039","II-S041","II-S042"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S036","title":"Global Soft Power Index 2026 executive summary","url":"https://brandfinance.com/insights/global-soft-power-index-2026-executive-summary","publisher":"Brand Finance","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Brand Finance"},{"id":"II-S039","title":"Asia Power Index: Cultural influence","url":"https://power.lowyinstitute.org/explore/cultural-influence/","publisher":"Lowy Institute","date":"2025 edition","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Lowy Institute"},{"id":"II-S041","title":"Open Doors 2025 press release","url":"https://www.iie.org/news/open-doors-2025-press-release/","publisher":"Institute of International Education","date":"2025; academic year 2024/25","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"IIE Open Doors"},{"id":"II-S042","title":"2025 Duolingo Language Report","url":"https://blog.duolingo.com/2025-duolingo-language-report/","publisher":"Duolingo","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Duolingo"}]}],"revision_triggers":["Matched cultural revealed-choice updates","Longitudinal contact-to-affinity and persistence evidence","Material reversal in study, language, entertainment, travel, or cultural-market preferences"],"display_on_overview":true,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"←","label":"Toward PRC advantage","css_class":"toward-prc"},"confidence_label":"Moderate"},"position":75},{"id":"II-D07","title":"Influence Conversion","detail_url":"/information-influence/review#ii-d07","current_position":"Insufficient comparative basis","current_confidence":"not_assessed","observed":{"direction":"insufficient_basis","confidence":"low","summary":"Selected experiments show short-run attitude movement for both systems, but no matched portfolio links natural exposure to consequential decisions or behavior that persists under cost and countermessage.","evidence":[{"text":"A 19-country experiment found selected PRC state-media messages could move model preference under forced exposure.","source_ids":["II-S049"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S049","title":"Chinese state media persuades a global audience that the China model is superior","url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12887","publisher":"Mattingly et al.","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Academic research team"}]},{"text":"Experiments in India and China show message tone and context can produce, erase, or reverse short-run attitudinal effects for PRC and U.S. messaging.","source_ids":["II-S050","II-S051"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S050","title":"When does public diplomacy work? Evidence from China's wolf-warrior diplomats","url":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods/article/when-does-public-diplomacy-work-evidence-from-chinas-wolf-warrior-diplomats/7C36B5891C2A1A7769F936D5F389A9F6","publisher":"Political Science Research and Methods","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Academic research team"},{"id":"II-S051","title":"The sound of silence: Championing democracy in an authoritarian society","url":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/sound-of-silence-championing-democracy-in-an-authoritarian-society/8C61A22C16E67151532D6C9909AA74C6","publisher":"Perspectives on Politics","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Academic research team"}]},{"text":"Pew, Gallup, and ISEAS identify current preferences and hypothetical alignment, but do not attribute state decisions or behavior to information exposure.","source_ids":["II-S034","II-S035","II-S038"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S034","title":"People in many countries now view China more positively than the U.S.","url":"https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2026/07/15/people-in-many-countries-now-view-china-more-positively-than-the-u-s/","publisher":"Pew Research Center","date":"2026-07-15; fieldwork 2026-02-08 to 2026-05-13","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Pew Research Center"},{"id":"II-S035","title":"China edges past U.S. in global approval ratings","url":"https://news.gallup.com/poll/707945/china-edges-past-global-approval-ratings.aspx","publisher":"Gallup","date":"2026-04-03; 2025 surveys","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Gallup World Poll"},{"id":"II-S038","title":"State of Southeast Asia 2026 Survey","url":"https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/The-State-of-Southeast-Asia-2026-Survey-Final-Single.pdf","publisher":"ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"ISEAS"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"?","label":"Insufficient basis","css_class":"insufficient"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"outlook":{"direction":"insufficient_basis","confidence":"low","summary":"Rising PRC reputation and cultural exposure could create conversion opportunities, while U.S./partner attraction and trusted networks remain strong; neither pathway has a valid two-year behavioral forecast.","current_efforts":[{"text":"PRC state media, culture, exchanges, and development narratives provide multiple exposure-to-preference pathways.","source_ids":["II-S047","II-S049"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S047","title":"China's Global Public Diplomacy Dashboard, version 3","url":"https://www.aiddata.org/data/chinas-global-public-diplomacy-dashboard-dataset-version-3","publisher":"AidData","date":"current dataset","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"AidData"},{"id":"II-S049","title":"Chinese state media persuades a global audience that the China model is superior","url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12887","publisher":"Mattingly et al.","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Academic research team"}]},{"text":"U.S./partner cultural, educational, media, diplomatic, and civil-society networks provide plural persuasion and relationship pathways.","source_ids":["II-S041","II-S042","II-S051"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S041","title":"Open Doors 2025 press release","url":"https://www.iie.org/news/open-doors-2025-press-release/","publisher":"Institute of International Education","date":"2025; academic year 2024/25","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"IIE Open Doors"},{"id":"II-S042","title":"2025 Duolingo Language Report","url":"https://blog.duolingo.com/2025-duolingo-language-report/","publisher":"Duolingo","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Duolingo"},{"id":"II-S051","title":"The sound of silence: Championing democracy in an authoritarian society","url":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/sound-of-silence-championing-democracy-in-an-authoritarian-society/8C61A22C16E67151532D6C9909AA74C6","publisher":"Perspectives on Politics","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Academic research team"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"Forced-exposure and short-horizon experiments do not establish natural reach, behavioral stakes, or persistence.","source_ids":["II-S049","II-S050","II-S051"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S049","title":"Chinese state media persuades a global audience that the China model is superior","url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12887","publisher":"Mattingly et al.","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Academic research team"},{"id":"II-S050","title":"When does public diplomacy work? Evidence from China's wolf-warrior diplomats","url":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods/article/when-does-public-diplomacy-work-evidence-from-chinas-wolf-warrior-diplomats/7C36B5891C2A1A7769F936D5F389A9F6","publisher":"Political Science Research and Methods","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Academic research team"},{"id":"II-S051","title":"The sound of silence: Championing democracy in an authoritarian society","url":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/sound-of-silence-championing-democracy-in-an-authoritarian-society/8C61A22C16E67151532D6C9909AA74C6","publisher":"Perspectives on Politics","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Academic research team"}]},{"text":"Policy, material incentives, identity, threat, and domestic politics can explain preferences or behavior independently of informational effects.","source_ids":["II-S034","II-S035","II-S038"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S034","title":"People in many countries now view China more positively than the U.S.","url":"https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2026/07/15/people-in-many-countries-now-view-china-more-positively-than-the-u-s/","publisher":"Pew Research Center","date":"2026-07-15; fieldwork 2026-02-08 to 2026-05-13","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Pew Research Center"},{"id":"II-S035","title":"China edges past U.S. in global approval ratings","url":"https://news.gallup.com/poll/707945/china-edges-past-global-approval-ratings.aspx","publisher":"Gallup","date":"2026-04-03; 2025 surveys","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Gallup World Poll"},{"id":"II-S038","title":"State of Southeast Asia 2026 Survey","url":"https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/The-State-of-Southeast-Asia-2026-Survey-Final-Single.pdf","publisher":"ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"ISEAS"}]}],"revision_triggers":["Natural-exposure causal studies","Consequential decision or behavior outcomes","Persistence under cost, time, and countermessage"],"display_on_overview":false,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"?","label":"Insufficient basis","css_class":"insufficient"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"position":null},{"id":"II-D08","title":"Counter-Influence","detail_url":"/information-influence/review#ii-d08","current_position":"Contested","current_confidence":"low","observed":{"direction":"insufficient_basis","confidence":"low","summary":"U.S./partner platforms publish growing disruption and attribution records while the PRC retains national-scale access denial; no common ground truth measures prevented exposure, belief correction, recovery, false positives, and rights costs.","evidence":[{"text":"Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI report recurring attribution and removal of state-linked influence operations, including thousands of PRC-linked channels and AI-enabled clusters.","source_ids":["II-S059","II-S061","II-S062","II-S063"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S059","title":"TAG Bulletin Q2 2025","url":"https://blog.google/threat-analysis-group/tag-bulletin-q2-2025/","publisher":"Google Threat Analysis Group","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Google"},{"id":"II-S061","title":"Microsoft Digital Defense Report 2025","url":"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/corporate-responsibility/cybersecurity/microsoft-digital-defense-report-2025/","publisher":"Microsoft","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Microsoft"},{"id":"II-S062","title":"Disrupting PRC-linked influence operations using AI in U.S. policy debates","url":"https://openai.com/index/prc-linked-influence-operations-ai-debates/","publisher":"OpenAI","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"OpenAI"},{"id":"II-S063","title":"Disrupting malicious uses of AI: 2025 report","url":"https://openai.com/global-affairs/disrupting-malicious-uses-of-ai/","publisher":"OpenAI","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"OpenAI"}]},{"text":"DRAGONBRIDGE's low organic engagement shows that large removal counts may reflect high adversary output rather than high defender-caused effect reduction.","source_ids":["II-S058"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S058","title":"New efforts to disrupt DRAGONBRIDGE spam activity","url":"https://blog.google/threat-analysis-group/google-disrupted-dragonbridge-activity-q1-2024/","publisher":"Google Threat Analysis Group","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Google"}]},{"text":"The PRC can deny foreign content at national scale, but censorship and domestic information-control costs cannot be coded automatically as integrity or effective correction.","source_ids":["II-S054","II-S056"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S054","title":"Freedom on the Net 2025: China","url":"https://freedomhouse.org/country/china/freedom-net/2025","publisher":"Freedom House","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Freedom House"},{"id":"II-S056","title":"China country profile and World Press Freedom Index","url":"https://rsf.org/en/country/china","publisher":"Reporters Without Borders","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"RSF"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"?","label":"Insufficient basis","css_class":"insufficient"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"outlook":{"direction":"insufficient_basis","confidence":"low","summary":"Attack and detection capacity will both expand with AI. Platform visibility, selected takedowns, opaque suppression, and absent exposure baselines prevent a net forecast.","current_efforts":[{"text":"Independent platforms and researchers continue to improve attribution, disruption, and cross-actor threat reporting.","source_ids":["II-S059","II-S061","II-S062","II-S063"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S059","title":"TAG Bulletin Q2 2025","url":"https://blog.google/threat-analysis-group/tag-bulletin-q2-2025/","publisher":"Google Threat Analysis Group","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Google"},{"id":"II-S061","title":"Microsoft Digital Defense Report 2025","url":"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/corporate-responsibility/cybersecurity/microsoft-digital-defense-report-2025/","publisher":"Microsoft","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Microsoft"},{"id":"II-S062","title":"Disrupting PRC-linked influence operations using AI in U.S. policy debates","url":"https://openai.com/index/prc-linked-influence-operations-ai-debates/","publisher":"OpenAI","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"OpenAI"},{"id":"II-S063","title":"Disrupting malicious uses of AI: 2025 report","url":"https://openai.com/global-affairs/disrupting-malicious-uses-of-ai/","publisher":"OpenAI","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"OpenAI"}]},{"text":"PRC access controls and centralized enforcement retain strong capacity to deny or shape the domestic information environment.","source_ids":["II-S054","II-S056"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S054","title":"Freedom on the Net 2025: China","url":"https://freedomhouse.org/country/china/freedom-net/2025","publisher":"Freedom House","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Freedom House"},{"id":"II-S056","title":"China country profile and World Press Freedom Index","url":"https://rsf.org/en/country/china","publisher":"Reporters Without Borders","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"RSF"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"AI lowers production and localization costs for adversaries and may increase narrative testing even when individual campaigns do not break out.","source_ids":["II-S061","II-S062","II-S068"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S061","title":"Microsoft Digital Defense Report 2025","url":"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/corporate-responsibility/cybersecurity/microsoft-digital-defense-report-2025/","publisher":"Microsoft","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Microsoft"},{"id":"II-S062","title":"Disrupting PRC-linked influence operations using AI in U.S. policy debates","url":"https://openai.com/index/prc-linked-influence-operations-ai-debates/","publisher":"OpenAI","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"OpenAI"},{"id":"II-S068","title":"PRC-linked AI content production and influence reporting","url":"https://apnews.com/article/8b74148007a3906cef85534eead1d7c8","publisher":"Associated Press","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Associated Press"}]},{"text":"Removal and censorship records lack a common threat denominator, false-positive count, protected-speech cost, belief-correction measure, and recovery window.","source_ids":["II-S058","II-S059","II-S054","II-S055"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S058","title":"New efforts to disrupt DRAGONBRIDGE spam activity","url":"https://blog.google/threat-analysis-group/google-disrupted-dragonbridge-activity-q1-2024/","publisher":"Google Threat Analysis Group","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Google"},{"id":"II-S059","title":"TAG Bulletin Q2 2025","url":"https://blog.google/threat-analysis-group/tag-bulletin-q2-2025/","publisher":"Google Threat Analysis Group","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Google"},{"id":"II-S054","title":"Freedom on the Net 2025: China","url":"https://freedomhouse.org/country/china/freedom-net/2025","publisher":"Freedom House","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Freedom House"},{"id":"II-S055","title":"Freedom on the Net 2025: United States","url":"https://freedomhouse.org/country/united-states/freedom-net/2025","publisher":"Freedom House","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Freedom House"}]}],"revision_triggers":["A shared cross-platform threat and exposure denominator","Measured belief correction and repeat-campaign suppression","Comparable false-positive, rights-cost, and recovery evidence"],"display_on_overview":false,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"?","label":"Insufficient basis","css_class":"insufficient"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"position":50},{"id":"II-D09","title":"Learning & Adaptation","detail_url":"/information-influence/review#ii-d09","current_position":"Insufficient comparative basis","current_confidence":"not_assessed","observed":{"direction":"insufficient_basis","confidence":"low","summary":"The U.S. publishes a broader evaluation and oversight architecture and PRC operations visibly adapt tactics, but neither system exposes a matched record of evidence-driven design change and repeated-cycle effect improvement.","evidence":[{"text":"U.S. guidance, USAGM performance reporting, and independent oversight reveal an auditable measurement architecture as well as current institutional weaknesses.","source_ids":["II-S002","II-S010","II-S013","II-S014"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S002","title":"10 FAH-1 H-040: Strategic planning, reporting, and evaluations","url":"https://fam.state.gov/FAM/10FAH01/10FAH010040.html","publisher":"U.S. Department of State","date":"current through 2026-08-13","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"U.S. Department of State"},{"id":"II-S010","title":"FY 2024 Agency Performance Report","url":"https://www.usagm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/USAGM-FY-2024-Agency-Performance-Report_Final_1-17-25_WebVersion.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Agency for Global Media","date":"2025 publication covering FY2024","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"USAGM"},{"id":"II-S013","title":"Independent auditor report on USAGM FY25 financial statements","url":"https://www.stateoig.gov/report/aud-fm-ib-26-10","publisher":"U.S. Department of State OIG","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"State OIG and USAGM"},{"id":"II-S014","title":"FY 2025 USAGM major management and performance challenges","url":"https://www.stateoig.gov/uploads/report/report_pdf_file/fy-2025-usagm-major-management-and-performance-challenges.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Department of State OIG","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"State OIG and USAGM"}]},{"text":"PRC doctrine calls for differentiated and improved communication, while platform reports show tactical persistence and adaptation by PRC-linked operations.","source_ids":["II-S020","II-S023","II-S058","II-S062"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S020","title":"Xi stresses improving China's international communication capacity","url":"https://en.moj.gov.cn/2021-06/02/c_629007.htm","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Justice / Xinhua","date":"2021","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S023","title":"Tell China's story well and improve international communication","url":"https://www.cac.gov.cn/2020-05/12/c_1590838526095763.htm","publisher":"Cyberspace Administration of China","date":"2020","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S058","title":"New efforts to disrupt DRAGONBRIDGE spam activity","url":"https://blog.google/threat-analysis-group/google-disrupted-dragonbridge-activity-q1-2024/","publisher":"Google Threat Analysis Group","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Google"},{"id":"II-S062","title":"Disrupting PRC-linked influence operations using AI in U.S. policy debates","url":"https://openai.com/index/prc-linked-influence-operations-ai-debates/","publisher":"OpenAI","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"OpenAI"}]},{"text":"Neither side supplies a representative repeated-cycle portfolio linking a measured failure to a design change and improved downstream effect.","source_ids":["II-S010","II-S014","II-S058","II-S062"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S010","title":"FY 2024 Agency Performance Report","url":"https://www.usagm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/USAGM-FY-2024-Agency-Performance-Report_Final_1-17-25_WebVersion.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Agency for Global Media","date":"2025 publication covering FY2024","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"USAGM"},{"id":"II-S014","title":"FY 2025 USAGM major management and performance challenges","url":"https://www.stateoig.gov/uploads/report/report_pdf_file/fy-2025-usagm-major-management-and-performance-challenges.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Department of State OIG","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"State OIG and USAGM"},{"id":"II-S058","title":"New efforts to disrupt DRAGONBRIDGE spam activity","url":"https://blog.google/threat-analysis-group/google-disrupted-dragonbridge-activity-q1-2024/","publisher":"Google Threat Analysis Group","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Google"},{"id":"II-S062","title":"Disrupting PRC-linked influence operations using AI in U.S. policy debates","url":"https://openai.com/index/prc-linked-influence-operations-ai-debates/","publisher":"OpenAI","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"OpenAI"}]}],"direction_meta":{"symbol":"?","label":"Insufficient basis","css_class":"insufficient"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"outlook":{"direction":"insufficient_basis","confidence":"low","summary":"More platform feedback, AI experimentation, and evaluation activity will occur, but opacity, disruption, and the absence of effect-linked learning records prevent a relative forecast.","current_efforts":[{"text":"U.S. formal evaluation rules and performance systems can support learning if institutional continuity and management controls recover.","source_ids":["II-S002","II-S010","II-S013","II-S014"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S002","title":"10 FAH-1 H-040: Strategic planning, reporting, and evaluations","url":"https://fam.state.gov/FAM/10FAH01/10FAH010040.html","publisher":"U.S. Department of State","date":"current through 2026-08-13","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"U.S. Department of State"},{"id":"II-S010","title":"FY 2024 Agency Performance Report","url":"https://www.usagm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/USAGM-FY-2024-Agency-Performance-Report_Final_1-17-25_WebVersion.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Agency for Global Media","date":"2025 publication covering FY2024","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"USAGM"},{"id":"II-S013","title":"Independent auditor report on USAGM FY25 financial statements","url":"https://www.stateoig.gov/report/aud-fm-ib-26-10","publisher":"U.S. Department of State OIG","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"State OIG and USAGM"},{"id":"II-S014","title":"FY 2025 USAGM major management and performance challenges","url":"https://www.stateoig.gov/uploads/report/report_pdf_file/fy-2025-usagm-major-management-and-performance-challenges.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Department of State OIG","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"State OIG and USAGM"}]},{"text":"PRC doctrine and observed campaign adaptation indicate sustained attention to localization, testing, and tactical revision.","source_ids":["II-S020","II-S023","II-S058","II-S062"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S020","title":"Xi stresses improving China's international communication capacity","url":"https://en.moj.gov.cn/2021-06/02/c_629007.htm","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Justice / Xinhua","date":"2021","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S023","title":"Tell China's story well and improve international communication","url":"https://www.cac.gov.cn/2020-05/12/c_1590838526095763.htm","publisher":"Cyberspace Administration of China","date":"2020","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S058","title":"New efforts to disrupt DRAGONBRIDGE spam activity","url":"https://blog.google/threat-analysis-group/google-disrupted-dragonbridge-activity-q1-2024/","publisher":"Google Threat Analysis Group","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Google"},{"id":"II-S062","title":"Disrupting PRC-linked influence operations using AI in U.S. policy debates","url":"https://openai.com/index/prc-linked-influence-operations-ai-debates/","publisher":"OpenAI","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"OpenAI"}]}],"counterforces":[{"text":"U.S. organizational discontinuity may destroy institutional memory even where evaluation rules exist.","source_ids":["II-S013","II-S014","II-S015"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S013","title":"Independent auditor report on USAGM FY25 financial statements","url":"https://www.stateoig.gov/report/aud-fm-ib-26-10","publisher":"U.S. Department of State OIG","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"State OIG and USAGM"},{"id":"II-S014","title":"FY 2025 USAGM major management and performance challenges","url":"https://www.stateoig.gov/uploads/report/report_pdf_file/fy-2025-usagm-major-management-and-performance-challenges.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Department of State OIG","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"State OIG and USAGM"},{"id":"II-S015","title":"Termination of the Global Engagement Center","url":"https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12475","publisher":"Congressional Research Service","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"U.S. Congress"}]},{"text":"PRC opacity and platform-selected observations make failed experiments, retained lessons, internal decisions, and true effect changes unobservable.","source_ids":["II-S020","II-S058","II-S062"],"source_records":[{"id":"II-S020","title":"Xi stresses improving China's international communication capacity","url":"https://en.moj.gov.cn/2021-06/02/c_629007.htm","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Justice / Xinhua","date":"2021","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S058","title":"New efforts to disrupt DRAGONBRIDGE spam activity","url":"https://blog.google/threat-analysis-group/google-disrupted-dragonbridge-activity-q1-2024/","publisher":"Google Threat Analysis Group","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Google"},{"id":"II-S062","title":"Disrupting PRC-linked influence operations using AI in U.S. policy debates","url":"https://openai.com/index/prc-linked-influence-operations-ai-debates/","publisher":"OpenAI","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"OpenAI"}]}],"revision_triggers":["Published evidence-to-design decision records","Repeated-cycle comparable effect improvement","Failure retention and correction evidence across both systems"],"display_on_overview":false,"direction_meta":{"symbol":"?","label":"Insufficient basis","css_class":"insufficient"},"confidence_label":"Low"},"position":null}],"route":"/information-influence/trends","theme":"information","source_route":"/information-influence/sources","as_of_display":"August 14, 2026","sources":[{"id":"II-S001","title":"10 FAH-1 H-020: Public diplomacy at posts abroad","url":"https://fam.state.gov/FAM/10FAH01/10FAH010020.html","publisher":"U.S. Department of State","date":"current through 2026-08-13","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"U.S. Department of State"},{"id":"II-S002","title":"10 FAH-1 H-040: Strategic planning, reporting, and evaluations","url":"https://fam.state.gov/FAM/10FAH01/10FAH010040.html","publisher":"U.S. Department of State","date":"current through 2026-08-13","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"U.S. Department of State"},{"id":"II-S010","title":"FY 2024 Agency Performance Report","url":"https://www.usagm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/USAGM-FY-2024-Agency-Performance-Report_Final_1-17-25_WebVersion.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Agency for Global Media","date":"2025 publication covering FY2024","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"USAGM"},{"id":"II-S011","title":"Strategic Plan 2022-2026, 2024 update","url":"https://www.usagm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Strategic-Plan-2022-2026_Update_1-27-25-2.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Agency for Global Media","date":"2024","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"USAGM"},{"id":"II-S012","title":"FY 2026 Congressional Budget Justification","url":"https://www.usagm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/USAGM-FY-2026-CBJ-Master.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Agency for Global Media","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"USAGM"},{"id":"II-S013","title":"Independent auditor report on USAGM FY25 financial statements","url":"https://www.stateoig.gov/report/aud-fm-ib-26-10","publisher":"U.S. Department of State OIG","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"State OIG and USAGM"},{"id":"II-S014","title":"FY 2025 USAGM major management and performance challenges","url":"https://www.stateoig.gov/uploads/report/report_pdf_file/fy-2025-usagm-major-management-and-performance-challenges.pdf","publisher":"U.S. Department of State OIG","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_oversight","institutional_family":"State OIG and USAGM"},{"id":"II-S015","title":"Termination of the Global Engagement Center","url":"https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12475","publisher":"Congressional Research Service","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"U.S. Congress"},{"id":"II-S020","title":"Xi stresses improving China's international communication capacity","url":"https://en.moj.gov.cn/2021-06/02/c_629007.htm","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Justice / Xinhua","date":"2021","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S021","title":"Report to the 20th CPC National Congress: culture and communication excerpts","url":"https://english.www.gov.cn/news/topnews/202210/16/content_WS634b9299c6d0a757729e14ab.html","publisher":"State Council of the PRC","date":"2022","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S023","title":"Tell China's story well and improve international communication","url":"https://www.cac.gov.cn/2020-05/12/c_1590838526095763.htm","publisher":"Cyberspace Administration of China","date":"2020","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S024","title":"Building China's cyberspace community with a shared future","url":"https://english.scio.gov.cn/m/pressroom/2022-11/15/content_78520349_10.htm","publisher":"State Council Information Office","date":"2022","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S025","title":"About CGTN","url":"https://www.cgtn.com/about-us","publisher":"CGTN","date":"current page accessed 2026-08-13","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"China Media Group"},{"id":"II-S026","title":"Xinhua global bureau network report","url":"https://english.news.cn/20251110/e0f9050228d746f798972085696526d4/c.html","publisher":"Xinhua","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"Xinhua"},{"id":"II-S027","title":"National cultural export key enterprises and projects","url":"https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/xwfb/rcxwfb/art/2025/art_a3d5cc1d51e9482eb44931d8b0bd1ea2.html","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Commerce","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S028","title":"Chinese language learning and digital education platform report","url":"https://hudong.moe.gov.cn/jyb_xwfb/s5147/202504/t20250401_1185738.html","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Education","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC Ministry of Education"},{"id":"II-S029","title":"Visa-free entry statistics","url":"https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/statistics/202507/23/content_WS68809ee1c6d0868f4e8f45fb.html","publisher":"State Council of the PRC","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC government"},{"id":"II-S030","title":"China audiovisual exports report","url":"https://english.scio.gov.cn/m/pressroom/2025-09/26/content_118099445.html","publisher":"State Council Information Office","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S031","title":"Games and cultural exports report","url":"https://chinaipr.mofcom.gov.cn/article/centralgovernment/202603/1995577.html","publisher":"PRC Ministry of Commerce","date":"2026","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S032","title":"Chinese film international distribution report","url":"https://www.chinafilm.gov.cn/xwzx/gzdt/202510/t20251024_936523.html","publisher":"China Film Administration","date":"2025","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S033","title":"Cultural industry and export development report","url":"https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/wsdwhfz/202605/t20260526_1405491.html","publisher":"PRC National Development and Reform Commission","date":"2026","evidence_role":"official_primary_or_output","institutional_family":"PRC party-state"},{"id":"II-S034","title":"People in many countries now view China more positively than the U.S.","url":"https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2026/07/15/people-in-many-countries-now-view-china-more-positively-than-the-u-s/","publisher":"Pew Research Center","date":"2026-07-15; fieldwork 2026-02-08 to 2026-05-13","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Pew Research Center"},{"id":"II-S035","title":"China edges past U.S. in global approval ratings","url":"https://news.gallup.com/poll/707945/china-edges-past-global-approval-ratings.aspx","publisher":"Gallup","date":"2026-04-03; 2025 surveys","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Gallup World Poll"},{"id":"II-S036","title":"Global Soft Power Index 2026 executive summary","url":"https://brandfinance.com/insights/global-soft-power-index-2026-executive-summary","publisher":"Brand Finance","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Brand Finance"},{"id":"II-S037","title":"Global Soft Power Index 2026 full report","url":"https://static.brandirectory.com/reports/brand-finance-soft-power-index-2026-digital.pdf","publisher":"Brand Finance","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Brand Finance"},{"id":"II-S038","title":"State of Southeast Asia 2026 Survey","url":"https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/The-State-of-Southeast-Asia-2026-Survey-Final-Single.pdf","publisher":"ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"ISEAS"},{"id":"II-S039","title":"Asia Power Index: Cultural influence","url":"https://power.lowyinstitute.org/explore/cultural-influence/","publisher":"Lowy Institute","date":"2025 edition","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Lowy Institute"},{"id":"II-S041","title":"Open Doors 2025 press release","url":"https://www.iie.org/news/open-doors-2025-press-release/","publisher":"Institute of International Education","date":"2025; academic year 2024/25","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"IIE Open Doors"},{"id":"II-S042","title":"2025 Duolingo Language Report","url":"https://blog.duolingo.com/2025-duolingo-language-report/","publisher":"Duolingo","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Duolingo"},{"id":"II-S047","title":"China's Global Public Diplomacy Dashboard, version 3","url":"https://www.aiddata.org/data/chinas-global-public-diplomacy-dashboard-dataset-version-3","publisher":"AidData","date":"current dataset","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"AidData"},{"id":"II-S049","title":"Chinese state media persuades a global audience that the China model is superior","url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12887","publisher":"Mattingly et al.","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Academic research team"},{"id":"II-S050","title":"When does public diplomacy work? Evidence from China's wolf-warrior diplomats","url":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods/article/when-does-public-diplomacy-work-evidence-from-chinas-wolf-warrior-diplomats/7C36B5891C2A1A7769F936D5F389A9F6","publisher":"Political Science Research and Methods","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Academic research team"},{"id":"II-S051","title":"The sound of silence: Championing democracy in an authoritarian society","url":"https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/sound-of-silence-championing-democracy-in-an-authoritarian-society/8C61A22C16E67151532D6C9909AA74C6","publisher":"Perspectives on Politics","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Academic research team"},{"id":"II-S052","title":"Beijing's Global Media Influence 2022","url":"https://freedomhouse.org/report/beijing-global-media-influence/2022/authoritarian-expansion-power-democratic-resilience","publisher":"Freedom House","date":"2022","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Freedom House"},{"id":"II-S054","title":"Freedom on the Net 2025: China","url":"https://freedomhouse.org/country/china/freedom-net/2025","publisher":"Freedom House","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Freedom House"},{"id":"II-S055","title":"Freedom on the Net 2025: United States","url":"https://freedomhouse.org/country/united-states/freedom-net/2025","publisher":"Freedom House","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Freedom House"},{"id":"II-S056","title":"China country profile and World Press Freedom Index","url":"https://rsf.org/en/country/china","publisher":"Reporters Without Borders","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"RSF"},{"id":"II-S057","title":"United States country profile and World Press Freedom Index","url":"https://rsf.org/en/country/united-states","publisher":"Reporters Without Borders","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"RSF"},{"id":"II-S058","title":"New efforts to disrupt DRAGONBRIDGE spam activity","url":"https://blog.google/threat-analysis-group/google-disrupted-dragonbridge-activity-q1-2024/","publisher":"Google Threat Analysis Group","date":"2024","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Google"},{"id":"II-S059","title":"TAG Bulletin Q2 2025","url":"https://blog.google/threat-analysis-group/tag-bulletin-q2-2025/","publisher":"Google Threat Analysis Group","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Google"},{"id":"II-S061","title":"Microsoft Digital Defense Report 2025","url":"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/corporate-responsibility/cybersecurity/microsoft-digital-defense-report-2025/","publisher":"Microsoft","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Microsoft"},{"id":"II-S062","title":"Disrupting PRC-linked influence operations using AI in U.S. policy debates","url":"https://openai.com/index/prc-linked-influence-operations-ai-debates/","publisher":"OpenAI","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"OpenAI"},{"id":"II-S063","title":"Disrupting malicious uses of AI: 2025 report","url":"https://openai.com/global-affairs/disrupting-malicious-uses-of-ai/","publisher":"OpenAI","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"OpenAI"},{"id":"II-S064","title":"Digital News Report 2026 executive summary","url":"https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2026/dnr-executive-summary","publisher":"Reuters Institute","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Reuters Institute"},{"id":"II-S067","title":"Aid cuts and U.S. soft power in the Middle East","url":"https://www.arabbarometer.org/2025/03/trumps-aid-cuts-sever-stalwart-of-u-s-soft-power-in-the-middle-east/","publisher":"Arab Barometer","date":"2025","evidence_role":"independent_research","institutional_family":"Arab Barometer"},{"id":"II-S068","title":"PRC-linked AI content production and influence reporting","url":"https://apnews.com/article/8b74148007a3906cef85534eead1d7c8","publisher":"Associated Press","date":"2026","evidence_role":"independent_reporting","institutional_family":"Associated Press"}],"counts":{"items":9,"overview_signals":2,"directional_outlooks":4,"stable_outlooks":0,"insufficient_outlooks":5,"unique_sources":46}}