Research program 06
Crisis Prevention & Conflict Termination
The most consequential craft is keeping competition from becoming an unnecessary war—and ending war on sustainable terms when prevention fails.
What this focus must answer.
Which combinations of signaling, leverage, reassurance, mediation, and settlement design reduce escalation or terminate conflict durably?
Planned outputs
- Crisis decision timelines
- Prevention and termination cases
- Escalation and settlement indicators
Launch gate.
Publish only after cases include failed as well as successful prevention, credible counterfactuals, and explicit uncertainty about intent.
This page is intentionally a research brief, not a thin assessment wearing a finished label.
See the build plan