Validated mission requirement
A current wartime denominator linked to mission, specialty, team, scenario, and horizon.
Can the United States and credibly available allies field, sustain, and regenerate enough qualified, current, experienced, and deployable technical teams—and how does that compare with observable and plausibly bounded PLA capacity?
A ready person or team must meet the required fill, fit, qualification, currency, and availability gates. Training and retention independently feed the force; burden drains it; augmentation substitutes only at a defined task and horizon.
Eligibility gates are serial for an individual or team. Retention, training, leadership, burden, reserve depth, allied support, and learning are not universally downstream of one another.
A current wartime denominator linked to mission, specialty, team, scenario, and horizon.
Personnel assigned against the validated requirement; necessary stock, not readiness by itself.
Specialty, grade, clearance, certification, currency, and senior depth.
The complete intersection of fit, qualification, legal, medical, geographic, and team gates.
Cohort-specific continuation and losses for the skills and experience that take longest to replace.
Starts, completion yield, instructors, facilities, post-school qualification, and time to proficiency.
Deployment, workload, fatigue, vacancies, moves, and churn as evidence-backed drains or contributors.
Representative task performance and sustained output under denial, loss, fatigue, and logistics disruption.
Task-level substitutes only where authority, access, qualification, and interoperability are credible.
A specialty family enters the experimental design only when it passes four tests and has an explicit mission-thread and occupational-code crosswalk.
A shortage can stop or materially reduce a priority mission thread.
Qualification, clearance, experience, or team integration creates a long replacement time.
Adjacent specialties, reserves, civilians, contractors, automation, or allies cannot immediately cover the role without material limits.
Public records can support at least a bounded U.S. and PRC planning assessment.
PLA data remains in planning, but recruitment, force structure, or official claims cannot silently become actual retention, deployable fit, or mission proficiency.
Traceable personnel, qualification, graduation, or observed outcome data with a defined scope.
Specialty recruitment, vacancy, training-base, or repeated behavioral evidence used only to bound an estimate.
Aggregate strength, broad modernization language, or an uncorroborated official readiness claim.
No usable public evidence. Missing is never converted to zero.
When record-level intersection is unavailable, publish a bounded estimate and its assumptions. Missing PRC evidence remains missing rather than zero.
Policy-derived thresholds remain distinct from program-relative and provisional analytical buckets. Measures stay trend-only when a universal cutoff would be misleading.
How much of the critical-specialty universe has a current mission-linked wartime denominator?
RT-MOD1percent · higher_betterconfidence_onlycurrent|30_day|one_year|five_yearprovisional_analysisproposedCritical billets or teams with a formally validated, current scenario requirement divided by all declared critical billets or teams.
resilient >=95%; adequate 85-94.9%; thin 70-84.9%; exposed 50-69.9%; acute <50%
This governs denominator confidence and institutional planning evidence; it does not by itself show personnel capability. U.S.-PRC comparison is generally not symmetric.
Are enough personnel assigned against the validated requirement?
RT-MOD2ratio · higher_betterrequired_dependencycurrent|30_day|one_yearprovisional_analysisproposedAssigned personnel in the exact specialty, grade band, unit, and period divided by validated required billets for the same scope.
resilient >=1.05; adequate 0.95-1.049; thin 0.85-0.949; exposed 0.70-0.849; acute <0.70
Overfill does not establish fit, qualification, availability, or team completeness. Compare with PRC only when the requirement construct is credibly bounded.
Do assigned personnel match required specialty, grade, experience, clearance, and billet attributes?
RT-MOD3ratio · higher_betterrequired_dependencycurrent|30_day|one_yearprovisional_analysisproposedAssigned personnel meeting every declared fit criterion divided by validated required billets in the same scope.
resilient >=1.05; adequate 0.95-1.049; thin 0.85-0.949; exposed 0.70-0.849; acute <0.70
Business rules and junior-to-senior substitutions must be visible. An administrative fit flag is not accepted without definition and reliability review.
How much of the validated requirement is filled by personnel or complete teams that simultaneously fit, are qualified/current, and are available?
RT-MOD4ratio · higher_betteroutcome_linkcurrent|30_dayprovisional_analysisproposedDistinct people or complete teams meeting all fit, certification, currency, medical, administrative, legal, geographic, and availability gates divided by the validated requirement.
resilient >=1.05; adequate 0.95-1.049; thin 0.85-0.949; exposed 0.70-0.849; acute <0.70
Preferred readiness stock metric. Do not estimate by multiplying unrelated aggregate percentages; use a bounded estimate if record-level intersection is unavailable.
What share of the relevant assigned cohort holds every required current qualification?
RT-MOD3percent · higher_betterrequired_dependencycurrent|30_dayprovisional_analysisproposedAssigned personnel holding all required certifications, evaluations, repetitions, clearances, and recency for the task divided by assigned personnel in the same cohort.
resilient >=95%; adequate 90-94.9%; thin 80-89.9%; exposed 70-79.9%; acute <70%
Define current status by task and service standard. A course credential without current task proficiency does not qualify.
Is there enough experienced supervisory, evaluator, and instructor depth beyond minimally qualified operators?
RT-MOD3ratio · higher_betterparallel_contributorcurrent|one_yearprovisional_analysisproposedPersonnel meeting the defined senior or advanced qualification divided by validated senior, supervisor, evaluator, and instructor requirements for the cohort.
resilient >=1.05; adequate 0.95-1.049; thin 0.85-0.949; exposed 0.70-0.849; acute <0.70
Do not treat time in service alone as experience. PRC comparison normally requires proxy bounds and explicit analogue quality.
Is the defined cohort retaining enough eligible personnel against its validated target?
RT-MOD5ratio · higher_betterparallel_contributorone_year|five_yearprovisional_analysisproposedActual retained eligible personnel divided by the validated retention requirement for the same specialty, grade, experience, decision window, and period.
resilient >=1.05; adequate 0.95-1.049; thin 0.85-0.949; exposed 0.70-0.849; acute <0.70
Display the target method and historical rate. Meeting a low administrative target cannot override a negative qualified-stock balance.
Can newly qualified additions replace qualified permanent losses in the cohort?
RT-MOD5|RT-MOD6ratio · higher_betteroutcome_linkone_year|five_yearprovisional_analysisproposedPersonnel reaching independent mission qualification during the period divided by permanent losses of independently qualified personnel in the same specialty and proficiency scope.
resilient >=1.10; adequate 1.00-1.099; thin 0.85-0.999; exposed 0.70-0.849; acute <0.70
Transfers between components or services require de-duplication. A novice completion and a senior loss are not equivalent; pair this with depth and time-to-proficiency.
Is the training system converting starts into graduates at or above its validated standard?
RT-MOD6percent · higher_better_with_quality_gateparallel_contributorone_year|five_yearprogram_relativeproposedGraduates meeting the course standard divided by course starts for the same cohort, with washout, recategorization, recycle, and time-window rules retained.
resilient >=5 percentage points above validated target; adequate within 5 points of target; thin 5.1-10 points below; exposed 10.1-20 points below; acute >20 points below; unscored without a valid target
A high pass rate can reflect easier standards. Qualification quality and post-school mission performance must remain visible.
What share of school graduates reaches independent mission qualification within the expected window?
RT-MOD6percent · higher_betteroutcome_linkone_year|five_yearprogram_relativeproposedGraduates who attain independent unit-level mission qualification within the approved window divided by graduates reporting to qualification units.
resilient >=5 percentage points above validated target; adequate within 5 points of target; thin 5.1-10 points below; exposed 10.1-20 points below; acute >20 points below; unscored without a valid target
This prevents course completion from being counted as ready stock. Attrition and reassignment before qualification remain explicit.
Can the pipeline staff all required instruction and evaluation positions with qualified personnel?
RT-MOD6ratio · higher_betterbottleneckcurrent|one_year|five_yearprovisional_analysisproposedAssigned qualified instructors and evaluators divided by validated instructor and evaluator requirements, by course and unit qualification function.
resilient >=1.05; adequate 0.95-1.049; thin 0.85-0.949; exposed 0.70-0.849; acute <0.70
Count instructor time actually available after collateral duties. Contractor instructors require continuity, access, and wartime availability checks.
How long from entry or accession until independent mission qualification?
RT-MOD6days · lower_better_without_quality_lossoutcome_linkone_year|five_yearprogram_relativeproposedMedian elapsed calendar days from accession into the specialty pipeline to independent mission qualification; also report 25th and 75th percentiles and attrition.
resilient at or below validated standard; adequate <=10% over; thin >10-25% over; exposed >25-50% over; acute >50% over or no functioning path
Do not compare specialties with different task standards directly. Use same-family U.S.-PRC analogue only with explicit scope and standard differences.
How long until a new entrant reaches the experience level needed to replace a lost senior technician, supervisor, instructor, or evaluator?
RT-MOD6days · lower_better_without_quality_lossoutcome_linkone_year|five_yearprogram_relativeproposedMedian elapsed time from accession or initial qualification to the defined advanced qualification, including required repetitions and experience; report distribution and noncompletion.
resilient at or below validated standard; adequate <=10% over; thin >10-25% over; exposed >25-50% over; acute >50% over or no functioning path
This metric prevents one-for-one headcount replacement from standing in for experience replacement.
Does deployment burden meet the Department's active-component goal and threshold?
RT-MOD7ratio · higher_betterdraincurrent|one_yearpolicyproposedMonths not deployed divided by months deployed for active-component units or individuals under the DTM-21-005 business rules.
resilient >=3.0 meets goal; thin 2.0-2.999 meets threshold but misses goal; acute <2.0 breaches threshold; adequate and exposed intentionally unused because policy defines three regions
Policy-derived U.S. condition only. Dwell is a burden indicator, not direct proficiency or retention; a PRC analogue requires a separate construct.
Does mobilization burden meet the Department's reserve-component goal and threshold?
RT-MOD7ratio · higher_betterdraincurrent|one_yearpolicyproposedMonths not mobilized divided by months mobilized for reserve-component units or individuals under the DTM-21-005 business rules.
resilient >=5.0 meets goal; thin 4.0-4.999 meets threshold but misses goal; acute <4.0 breaches threshold; adequate and exposed intentionally unused because policy defines three regions
Policy-derived U.S. condition only. Report involuntary and voluntary mobilization and specialty variation where available.
Are qualified teams remaining intact long enough to build and preserve collective proficiency?
RT-MOD7percent · higher_better_contextuallyparallel_contributorcurrent|one_yeartrend_onlyproposedShare of required team positions occupied by the same qualified personnel across a defined workup, deployment, or readiness cycle, with planned rotations separated from unplanned churn.
No universal condition bucket. Compare against the unit's validated stability plan and prior cycles; report the causes and whether mission-task performance changed.
Some rotation builds force-wide experience and can be beneficial. Stability is causal evidence only when linked to proficiency, workload, or losses.
Can complete technical teams meet required tasks in a contested, independently adjudicated event?
RT-MOD8ordinal · higher_betteroutcome_linkcurrent|30_dayprovisional_analysisproposedHighest repeated result against declared mission-essential-task standards, preserving scenario realism, external support, adjudication method, repetitions, and failure modes.
resilient all critical tasks met across repeated representative events; adequate most critical tasks met with minor bounded deficiencies; thin mixed or partial critical-task results; exposed failed one or more decisive tasks under representative conditions; acute repeated decisive failure; unobserved is unscored not acute
Direct comparison requires similar tasks, opposition, standards, and disclosure. Exercise participation or official narrative alone is not a scored outcome.
How much required output can the team sustain after specified casualties, fatigue, jamming, logistics loss, or facility disruption?
RT-MOD8percent · higher_betteroutcome_link30_day|one_yearprovisional_analysisproposedSustained mission output after a declared degradation package divided by baseline required output over the same period.
resilient >=80%; adequate 65-79.9%; thin 50-64.9%; exposed 25-49.9%; acute <25%; unscored without a declared standard degradation package
Scenario-specific. The degradation package, duration, replacement access, and baseline must match before U.S.-PRC comparison.
How quickly can the institution restore a defined lost share of qualified deployable teams?
RT-MOD6|RT-MOD9days · lower_betteroutcome_link30_day|one_year|five_yearprovisional_analysisproposedCalendar time to replace the scenario-specified loss and return complete teams to independent mission qualification, including recruiting, training, unit qualification, equipment, instructors, and accessions already in pipeline.
resilient <=30 days; adequate 31-180; thin 181-365; exposed 366-1825; acute >1825 or no credible path
Always state the lost share and proficiency level being restored. Low/base/high PRC cases are expected when direct pipeline data are absent.
May reserve, civilian, contractor, adjacent-specialty, automation, or allied capacity actually cover a named task in this horizon?
RT-MOD9categorical · eligibility_not_scoresubstitutecurrent|30_day|one_year|five_yearontology_ruleproposedCategorical eligibility based on authority, availability, clearance, task qualification, equipment, interoperability, location, logistics, command relationship, and timing: verified_accessible; horizon_feasible; nominal; unavailable.
No condition bucket. Verified accessible enters the base case; horizon feasible enters only the named milestone case; nominal is displayed without credit; unavailable is excluded.
Credit only the task and quantity actually covered. One person cannot simultaneously fill active, contractor, reserve, and allied estimates.
How much of the declared critical-specialty universe has current source-backed requirement, fit, qualification, retention, pipeline, and availability observations?
RT-MOD1percent · higher_betterconfidence_onlycurrentprovisional_analysisproposedCritical cohorts with complete required observation fields divided by all cohorts in the versioned critical-specialty register.
resilient >=95%; adequate 85-94.9%; thin 70-84.9%; exposed 50-69.9%; acute <50%
Calculate separately for U.S., each ally, and PRC. Data coverage governs confidence and sensitivity; it is not itself a relative capability advantage.
Aggregate U.S. personnel reports, audited service findings, deployment policy, PLA assessments, and translated recruiting evidence answer different questions and cannot be averaged into false symmetry.
Primary use: Cross-domain readiness outcomes, trained-personnel shortages, maintenance and workforce constraints, data gaps
Known limitation: Public synthesis cannot disclose many underlying operational metrics; observations use different service definitions and periods
Open public source ↗Primary use: Service, component, rank, location, and workforce stock baselines
Known limitation: Public tables rarely expose specialty, qualification, deployability, cohort retention, or validated requirement detail
Open public source ↗Primary use: Authorized and actual manpower context by component and service; civilian and contractor context
Known limitation: Aggregate profile; not a linked specialty-readiness or retention dataset; definitions and dates vary by table
Open public source ↗Primary use: Fill-versus-fit construct; billet skill/experience rules; crewing-data reliability; transparency gaps
Known limitation: Navy-specific system and rules; public results do not create a cross-service or PRC-ready dataset
Open public source ↗Primary use: Assigned-versus-available personnel; maintenance skill and training; workload; task requirements
Known limitation: Navy surface-fleet maintenance focus; survey and visited-ship findings are not a complete force-wide time series
Open public source ↗Primary use: Requirements validity; assigned shortfall; contractor visibility; critical workforce planning; training and retention challenges
Known limitation: One service and period; aggregate shortfall does not reveal all specialty fit, qualification, or deployability
Open public source ↗Primary use: Occupation-specific staffing, retention competition, workload, reporting-rule reliability, and maintenance outcome linkage
Known limitation: Three depots; civilian occupation findings do not automatically generalize to operational units or military cohorts
Open public source ↗Primary use: Skill-level staffing, loss and reenlistment rates, retention goals, training completions, and experience imbalance
Known limitation: Underlying data are primarily FY2010-2017; use for method and historical calibration, not current condition without new evidence
Open public source ↗Primary use: Cyber workforce scale, organization, contractor use, training-support structure, and overlap
Known limitation: Organization and personnel counts do not establish specialty fit, qualification, availability, team readiness, or retention
Open public source ↗Primary use: Authoritative active deployment-to-dwell and reserve mobilization-to-dwell goals, thresholds, definitions, and exceptions
Known limitation: Policy condition and burden measure only; does not measure proficiency, mission output, specialty retention, or a PRC analogue
Open public source ↗Primary use: Force-generation design; team deployment; base staffing; implementation metrics; operational burden context
Known limitation: AFFORGEN-specific and evolving; not a direct specialty-retention or mission-task-performance dataset
Open public source ↗Primary use: PLA force structure, readiness activity, exercises, personnel policy, talent issues, corruption, and uncertainty
Known limitation: Relies partly on estimates and classified analysis not reproducible from the public report; specialty-level denominators and retention remain sparse
Open public source ↗Primary use: Specialty-targeted NCO recruitment counts, categories, eligibility, and pipeline proxy
Known limitation: Recruitment plan or notice does not establish actual accession, graduation, retention, qualification, unit fill, or deployability; translation and coverage require review
Open public source ↗Primary use: Pilot recruitment eligibility, policy, selection, and training-pipeline proxy
Known limitation: Recruitment policy is not accession, graduation, combat qualification, retention, or sortie readiness; service definitions differ
Open public source ↗Primary use: Reserve-system authorities, reforms, personnel categories, and mobilization context
Known limitation: Institutional design and legal reform do not establish trained reserve strength, readiness, mobilization speed, or scenario availability
Open public source ↗Primary use: Primary legal and administrative recruitment framework; categories, authorities, and implementation claims
Known limitation: Official policy does not prove implementation, accession quality, training, retention, readiness, or unit-level outcomes; corroboration required
Open public source ↗The catalog defines proposed measures and buckets. It does not publish classified denominators, invent missing PLA values, or change the current rating.
This experiment does not alter the current Experience & force cohesion call. Open the live capability assessment →