← Methodology Experimental research design · not applied

Readiness & technical retention

Can the United States and credibly available allies field, sustain, and regenerate enough qualified, current, experienced, and deployable technical teams—and how does that compare with observable and plausibly bounded PLA capacity?

9 interacting modules21 metric contracts4 inclusion tests16 source records
Research statusExperimental · not incorporated into the live rating

The unit of analysis is specialty/cohort × grade and experience × qualification/current status × team × mission task × geography × scenario × horizon.

Gates and parallel flows

Count the intersection.

A ready person or team must meet the required fill, fit, qualification, currency, and availability gates. Training and retention independently feed the force; burden drains it; augmentation substitutes only at a defined task and horizon.

Open full capability graphStandalone visual review ↗
Structural correction

Part funnel. Part interacting system.

Eligibility gates are serial for an individual or team. Retention, training, leadership, burden, reserve depth, allied support, and learning are not universally downstream of one another.

RT-MOD1

Validated mission requirement

A current wartime denominator linked to mission, specialty, team, scenario, and horizon.

RT-MOD2

Assigned inventory & fill

Personnel assigned against the validated requirement; necessary stock, not readiness by itself.

RT-MOD3

Fit, qualification & experience

Specialty, grade, clearance, certification, currency, and senior depth.

RT-MOD4

Availability & deployability

The complete intersection of fit, qualification, legal, medical, geographic, and team gates.

RT-MOD5

Technical retention & loss

Cohort-specific continuation and losses for the skills and experience that take longest to replace.

RT-MOD6

Training & replacement

Starts, completion yield, instructors, facilities, post-school qualification, and time to proficiency.

RT-MOD7

Operational burden & stability

Deployment, workload, fatigue, vacancies, moves, and churn as evidence-backed drains or contributors.

RT-MOD8

Mission performance under stress

Representative task performance and sustained output under denial, loss, fatigue, and logistics disruption.

RT-MOD9

Reserve, civilian & allied augmentation

Task-level substitutes only where authority, access, qualification, and interoperability are credible.

Critical-specialty register

Do not begin with every occupational code.

A specialty family enters the experimental design only when it passes four tests and has an explicit mission-thread and occupational-code crosswalk.

01

Mission consequence

A shortage can stop or materially reduce a priority mission thread.

02

Replacement difficulty

Qualification, clearance, experience, or team integration creates a long replacement time.

03

Substitutability

Adjacent specialties, reserves, civilians, contractors, automation, or allies cannot immediately cover the role without material limits.

04

Observable evidence

Public records can support at least a bounded U.S. and PRC planning assessment.

Asymmetric public evidence

Use the PRC range. Label the inference.

PLA data remains in planning, but recruitment, force structure, or official claims cannot silently become actual retention, deployable fit, or mission proficiency.

PRC direct

Traceable personnel, qualification, graduation, or observed outcome data with a defined scope.

Strong proxy

Specialty recruitment, vacancy, training-base, or repeated behavioral evidence used only to bound an estimate.

Weak proxy

Aggregate strength, broad modernization language, or an uncorroborated official readiness claim.

Gap

No usable public evidence. Missing is never converted to zero.

Never multiply aggregate percentages.

When record-level intersection is unavailable, publish a bounded estimate and its assumptions. Missing PRC evidence remains missing rather than zero.

Metric contracts

From requirement validity to regeneration.

Policy-derived thresholds remain distinct from program-relative and provisional analytical buckets. Measures stay trend-only when a universal cutoff would be misleading.

RT-M01Validated requirement coverage

How much of the critical-specialty universe has a current mission-linked wartime denominator?

ModuleRT-MOD1
Unit / directionpercent · higher_better
Graph roleconfidence_only
Horizonscurrent|30_day|one_year|five_year
Threshold provenanceprovisional_analysis
Statusproposed
Definition or formula

Critical billets or teams with a formally validated, current scenario requirement divided by all declared critical billets or teams.

Condition bucket rule

resilient >=95%; adequate 85-94.9%; thin 70-84.9%; exposed 50-69.9%; acute <50%

Comparison and limitation

This governs denominator confidence and institutional planning evidence; it does not by itself show personnel capability. U.S.-PRC comparison is generally not symmetric.

Primary source IDsRT-S01RT-S04RT-S06
RT-M02Critical-specialty fill ratio

Are enough personnel assigned against the validated requirement?

ModuleRT-MOD2
Unit / directionratio · higher_better
Graph rolerequired_dependency
Horizonscurrent|30_day|one_year
Threshold provenanceprovisional_analysis
Statusproposed
Definition or formula

Assigned personnel in the exact specialty, grade band, unit, and period divided by validated required billets for the same scope.

Condition bucket rule

resilient >=1.05; adequate 0.95-1.049; thin 0.85-0.949; exposed 0.70-0.849; acute <0.70

Comparison and limitation

Overfill does not establish fit, qualification, availability, or team completeness. Compare with PRC only when the requirement construct is credibly bounded.

RT-M03Critical-specialty fit ratio

Do assigned personnel match required specialty, grade, experience, clearance, and billet attributes?

ModuleRT-MOD3
Unit / directionratio · higher_better
Graph rolerequired_dependency
Horizonscurrent|30_day|one_year
Threshold provenanceprovisional_analysis
Statusproposed
Definition or formula

Assigned personnel meeting every declared fit criterion divided by validated required billets in the same scope.

Condition bucket rule

resilient >=1.05; adequate 0.95-1.049; thin 0.85-0.949; exposed 0.70-0.849; acute <0.70

Comparison and limitation

Business rules and junior-to-senior substitutions must be visible. An administrative fit flag is not accepted without definition and reliability review.

Primary source IDsRT-S04RT-S06RT-S07RT-S09
RT-M04Deployable-fit ratio

How much of the validated requirement is filled by personnel or complete teams that simultaneously fit, are qualified/current, and are available?

ModuleRT-MOD4
Unit / directionratio · higher_better
Graph roleoutcome_link
Horizonscurrent|30_day
Threshold provenanceprovisional_analysis
Statusproposed
Definition or formula

Distinct people or complete teams meeting all fit, certification, currency, medical, administrative, legal, geographic, and availability gates divided by the validated requirement.

Condition bucket rule

resilient >=1.05; adequate 0.95-1.049; thin 0.85-0.949; exposed 0.70-0.849; acute <0.70

Comparison and limitation

Preferred readiness stock metric. Do not estimate by multiplying unrelated aggregate percentages; use a bounded estimate if record-level intersection is unavailable.

RT-M05Qualification and currency rate

What share of the relevant assigned cohort holds every required current qualification?

ModuleRT-MOD3
Unit / directionpercent · higher_better
Graph rolerequired_dependency
Horizonscurrent|30_day
Threshold provenanceprovisional_analysis
Statusproposed
Definition or formula

Assigned personnel holding all required certifications, evaluations, repetitions, clearances, and recency for the task divided by assigned personnel in the same cohort.

Condition bucket rule

resilient >=95%; adequate 90-94.9%; thin 80-89.9%; exposed 70-79.9%; acute <70%

Comparison and limitation

Define current status by task and service standard. A course credential without current task proficiency does not qualify.

Primary source IDsRT-S01RT-S05RT-S06RT-S09
RT-M06Senior-qualified depth coverage

Is there enough experienced supervisory, evaluator, and instructor depth beyond minimally qualified operators?

ModuleRT-MOD3
Unit / directionratio · higher_better
Graph roleparallel_contributor
Horizonscurrent|one_year
Threshold provenanceprovisional_analysis
Statusproposed
Definition or formula

Personnel meeting the defined senior or advanced qualification divided by validated senior, supervisor, evaluator, and instructor requirements for the cohort.

Condition bucket rule

resilient >=1.05; adequate 0.95-1.049; thin 0.85-0.949; exposed 0.70-0.849; acute <0.70

Comparison and limitation

Do not treat time in service alone as experience. PRC comparison normally requires proxy bounds and explicit analogue quality.

RT-M07Critical-cohort retention attainment

Is the defined cohort retaining enough eligible personnel against its validated target?

ModuleRT-MOD5
Unit / directionratio · higher_better
Graph roleparallel_contributor
Horizonsone_year|five_year
Threshold provenanceprovisional_analysis
Statusproposed
Definition or formula

Actual retained eligible personnel divided by the validated retention requirement for the same specialty, grade, experience, decision window, and period.

Condition bucket rule

resilient >=1.05; adequate 0.95-1.049; thin 0.85-0.949; exposed 0.70-0.849; acute <0.70

Comparison and limitation

Display the target method and historical rate. Meeting a low administrative target cannot override a negative qualified-stock balance.

Primary source IDsRT-S02RT-S03RT-S08RT-S09
RT-M08Qualified replacement balance

Can newly qualified additions replace qualified permanent losses in the cohort?

ModuleRT-MOD5|RT-MOD6
Unit / directionratio · higher_better
Graph roleoutcome_link
Horizonsone_year|five_year
Threshold provenanceprovisional_analysis
Statusproposed
Definition or formula

Personnel reaching independent mission qualification during the period divided by permanent losses of independently qualified personnel in the same specialty and proficiency scope.

Condition bucket rule

resilient >=1.10; adequate 1.00-1.099; thin 0.85-0.999; exposed 0.70-0.849; acute <0.70

Comparison and limitation

Transfers between components or services require de-duplication. A novice completion and a senior loss are not equivalent; pair this with depth and time-to-proficiency.

RT-M09Training completion yield

Is the training system converting starts into graduates at or above its validated standard?

ModuleRT-MOD6
Unit / directionpercent · higher_better_with_quality_gate
Graph roleparallel_contributor
Horizonsone_year|five_year
Threshold provenanceprogram_relative
Statusproposed
Definition or formula

Graduates meeting the course standard divided by course starts for the same cohort, with washout, recategorization, recycle, and time-window rules retained.

Condition bucket rule

resilient >=5 percentage points above validated target; adequate within 5 points of target; thin 5.1-10 points below; exposed 10.1-20 points below; acute >20 points below; unscored without a valid target

Comparison and limitation

A high pass rate can reflect easier standards. Qualification quality and post-school mission performance must remain visible.

RT-M10Post-school qualification yield

What share of school graduates reaches independent mission qualification within the expected window?

ModuleRT-MOD6
Unit / directionpercent · higher_better
Graph roleoutcome_link
Horizonsone_year|five_year
Threshold provenanceprogram_relative
Statusproposed
Definition or formula

Graduates who attain independent unit-level mission qualification within the approved window divided by graduates reporting to qualification units.

Condition bucket rule

resilient >=5 percentage points above validated target; adequate within 5 points of target; thin 5.1-10 points below; exposed 10.1-20 points below; acute >20 points below; unscored without a valid target

Comparison and limitation

This prevents course completion from being counted as ready stock. Attrition and reassignment before qualification remain explicit.

Primary source IDsRT-S05RT-S06RT-S07RT-S09
RT-M11Instructor and evaluator coverage

Can the pipeline staff all required instruction and evaluation positions with qualified personnel?

ModuleRT-MOD6
Unit / directionratio · higher_better
Graph rolebottleneck
Horizonscurrent|one_year|five_year
Threshold provenanceprovisional_analysis
Statusproposed
Definition or formula

Assigned qualified instructors and evaluators divided by validated instructor and evaluator requirements, by course and unit qualification function.

Condition bucket rule

resilient >=1.05; adequate 0.95-1.049; thin 0.85-0.949; exposed 0.70-0.849; acute <0.70

Comparison and limitation

Count instructor time actually available after collateral duties. Contractor instructors require continuity, access, and wartime availability checks.

Primary source IDsRT-S05RT-S06RT-S07
RT-M12Time to initial mission qualification

How long from entry or accession until independent mission qualification?

ModuleRT-MOD6
Unit / directiondays · lower_better_without_quality_loss
Graph roleoutcome_link
Horizonsone_year|five_year
Threshold provenanceprogram_relative
Statusproposed
Definition or formula

Median elapsed calendar days from accession into the specialty pipeline to independent mission qualification; also report 25th and 75th percentiles and attrition.

Condition bucket rule

resilient at or below validated standard; adequate <=10% over; thin >10-25% over; exposed >25-50% over; acute >50% over or no functioning path

Comparison and limitation

Do not compare specialties with different task standards directly. Use same-family U.S.-PRC analogue only with explicit scope and standard differences.

RT-M13Time to advanced proficiency

How long until a new entrant reaches the experience level needed to replace a lost senior technician, supervisor, instructor, or evaluator?

ModuleRT-MOD6
Unit / directiondays · lower_better_without_quality_loss
Graph roleoutcome_link
Horizonsone_year|five_year
Threshold provenanceprogram_relative
Statusproposed
Definition or formula

Median elapsed time from accession or initial qualification to the defined advanced qualification, including required repetitions and experience; report distribution and noncompletion.

Condition bucket rule

resilient at or below validated standard; adequate <=10% over; thin >10-25% over; exposed >25-50% over; acute >50% over or no functioning path

Comparison and limitation

This metric prevents one-for-one headcount replacement from standing in for experience replacement.

RT-M14Active-component deployment-to-dwell

Does deployment burden meet the Department's active-component goal and threshold?

ModuleRT-MOD7
Unit / directionratio · higher_better
Graph roledrain
Horizonscurrent|one_year
Threshold provenancepolicy
Statusproposed
Definition or formula

Months not deployed divided by months deployed for active-component units or individuals under the DTM-21-005 business rules.

Condition bucket rule

resilient >=3.0 meets goal; thin 2.0-2.999 meets threshold but misses goal; acute <2.0 breaches threshold; adequate and exposed intentionally unused because policy defines three regions

Comparison and limitation

Policy-derived U.S. condition only. Dwell is a burden indicator, not direct proficiency or retention; a PRC analogue requires a separate construct.

Primary source IDsRT-S10RT-S11
RT-M15Reserve-component mobilization-to-dwell

Does mobilization burden meet the Department's reserve-component goal and threshold?

ModuleRT-MOD7
Unit / directionratio · higher_better
Graph roledrain
Horizonscurrent|one_year
Threshold provenancepolicy
Statusproposed
Definition or formula

Months not mobilized divided by months mobilized for reserve-component units or individuals under the DTM-21-005 business rules.

Condition bucket rule

resilient >=5.0 meets goal; thin 4.0-4.999 meets threshold but misses goal; acute <4.0 breaches threshold; adequate and exposed intentionally unused because policy defines three regions

Comparison and limitation

Policy-derived U.S. condition only. Report involuntary and voluntary mobilization and specialty variation where available.

Primary source IDsRT-S10
RT-M16Critical-team stability

Are qualified teams remaining intact long enough to build and preserve collective proficiency?

ModuleRT-MOD7
Unit / directionpercent · higher_better_contextually
Graph roleparallel_contributor
Horizonscurrent|one_year
Threshold provenancetrend_only
Statusproposed
Definition or formula

Share of required team positions occupied by the same qualified personnel across a defined workup, deployment, or readiness cycle, with planned rotations separated from unplanned churn.

Condition bucket rule

No universal condition bucket. Compare against the unit's validated stability plan and prior cycles; report the causes and whether mission-task performance changed.

Comparison and limitation

Some rotation builds force-wide experience and can be beneficial. Stability is causal evidence only when linked to proficiency, workload, or losses.

Primary source IDsRT-S01RT-S04RT-S05RT-S11
RT-M17Representative mission-task performance

Can complete technical teams meet required tasks in a contested, independently adjudicated event?

ModuleRT-MOD8
Unit / directionordinal · higher_better
Graph roleoutcome_link
Horizonscurrent|30_day
Threshold provenanceprovisional_analysis
Statusproposed
Definition or formula

Highest repeated result against declared mission-essential-task standards, preserving scenario realism, external support, adjudication method, repetitions, and failure modes.

Condition bucket rule

resilient all critical tasks met across repeated representative events; adequate most critical tasks met with minor bounded deficiencies; thin mixed or partial critical-task results; exposed failed one or more decisive tasks under representative conditions; acute repeated decisive failure; unobserved is unscored not acute

Comparison and limitation

Direct comparison requires similar tasks, opposition, standards, and disclosure. Exercise participation or official narrative alone is not a scored outcome.

RT-M18Mission output after degradation

How much required output can the team sustain after specified casualties, fatigue, jamming, logistics loss, or facility disruption?

ModuleRT-MOD8
Unit / directionpercent · higher_better
Graph roleoutcome_link
Horizons30_day|one_year
Threshold provenanceprovisional_analysis
Statusproposed
Definition or formula

Sustained mission output after a declared degradation package divided by baseline required output over the same period.

Condition bucket rule

resilient >=80%; adequate 65-79.9%; thin 50-64.9%; exposed 25-49.9%; acute <25%; unscored without a declared standard degradation package

Comparison and limitation

Scenario-specific. The degradation package, duration, replacement access, and baseline must match before U.S.-PRC comparison.

RT-M19Qualified-force regeneration time

How quickly can the institution restore a defined lost share of qualified deployable teams?

ModuleRT-MOD6|RT-MOD9
Unit / directiondays · lower_better
Graph roleoutcome_link
Horizons30_day|one_year|five_year
Threshold provenanceprovisional_analysis
Statusproposed
Definition or formula

Calendar time to replace the scenario-specified loss and return complete teams to independent mission qualification, including recruiting, training, unit qualification, equipment, instructors, and accessions already in pipeline.

Condition bucket rule

resilient <=30 days; adequate 31-180; thin 181-365; exposed 366-1825; acute >1825 or no credible path

Comparison and limitation

Always state the lost share and proficiency level being restored. Low/base/high PRC cases are expected when direct pipeline data are absent.

RT-M20Augmentation access status

May reserve, civilian, contractor, adjacent-specialty, automation, or allied capacity actually cover a named task in this horizon?

ModuleRT-MOD9
Unit / directioncategorical · eligibility_not_score
Graph rolesubstitute
Horizonscurrent|30_day|one_year|five_year
Threshold provenanceontology_rule
Statusproposed
Definition or formula

Categorical eligibility based on authority, availability, clearance, task qualification, equipment, interoperability, location, logistics, command relationship, and timing: verified_accessible; horizon_feasible; nominal; unavailable.

Condition bucket rule

No condition bucket. Verified accessible enters the base case; horizon feasible enters only the named milestone case; nominal is displayed without credit; unavailable is excluded.

Comparison and limitation

Credit only the task and quantity actually covered. One person cannot simultaneously fill active, contractor, reserve, and allied estimates.

RT-M21Critical-cohort observation coverage

How much of the declared critical-specialty universe has current source-backed requirement, fit, qualification, retention, pipeline, and availability observations?

ModuleRT-MOD1
Unit / directionpercent · higher_better
Graph roleconfidence_only
Horizonscurrent
Threshold provenanceprovisional_analysis
Statusproposed
Definition or formula

Critical cohorts with complete required observation fields divided by all cohorts in the versioned critical-specialty register.

Condition bucket rule

resilient >=95%; adequate 85-94.9%; thin 70-84.9%; exposed 50-69.9%; acute <50%

Comparison and limitation

Calculate separately for U.S., each ally, and PRC. Data coverage governs confidence and sensitivity; it is not itself a relative capability advantage.

Public evidence

Direct, proxy, and gap stay distinct.

Aggregate U.S. personnel reports, audited service findings, deployment policy, PLA assessments, and translated recruiting evidence answer different questions and cannot be averaged into false symmetry.

RT-S01 · T2Military Readiness: DOD Should Take Further Actions to Address Challenges Across the Air, Sea, Ground, and Space Domains

Primary use: Cross-domain readiness outcomes, trained-personnel shortages, maintenance and workforce constraints, data gaps

Known limitation: Public synthesis cannot disclose many underlying operational metrics; observations use different service definitions and periods

Open public source ↗
RT-S02 · T1DoD personnel, workforce reports and publications

Primary use: Service, component, rank, location, and workforce stock baselines

Known limitation: Public tables rarely expose specialty, qualification, deployability, cohort retention, or validated requirement detail

Open public source ↗
RT-S03 · T2Defense Manpower Profile reports

Primary use: Authorized and actual manpower context by component and service; civilian and contractor context

Known limitation: Aggregate profile; not a linked specialty-readiness or retention dataset; definitions and dates vary by table

Open public source ↗
RT-S04 · T2Navy Readiness: Actions Needed to Improve the Reliability and Management of Ship Crewing Data

Primary use: Fill-versus-fit construct; billet skill/experience rules; crewing-data reliability; transparency gaps

Known limitation: Navy-specific system and rules; public results do not create a cross-service or PRC-ready dataset

Open public source ↗
RT-S05 · T2Navy Readiness: Actions Needed to Improve Support for Sailor-Led Maintenance

Primary use: Assigned-versus-available personnel; maintenance skill and training; workload; task requirements

Known limitation: Navy surface-fleet maintenance focus; survey and visited-ship findings are not a complete force-wide time series

Open public source ↗
RT-S06 · T2Space Force: Additional Actions Needed to Address Workforce Challenges

Primary use: Requirements validity; assigned shortfall; contractor visibility; critical workforce planning; training and retention challenges

Known limitation: One service and period; aggregate shortfall does not reveal all specialty fit, qualification, or deployability

Open public source ↗
RT-S07 · T2Air Force Readiness: Actions Needed to Address Depot Maintenance Delays and Staffing Challenges

Primary use: Occupation-specific staffing, retention competition, workload, reporting-rule reliability, and maintenance outcome linkage

Known limitation: Three depots; civilian occupation findings do not automatically generalize to operational units or military cohorts

Open public source ↗
RT-S08 · T2Military Personnel: Strategy Needed to Improve Retention of Experienced Air Force Aircraft Maintainers

Primary use: Skill-level staffing, loss and reenlistment rates, retention goals, training completions, and experience imbalance

Known limitation: Underlying data are primarily FY2010-2017; use for method and historical calibration, not current condition without new evidence

Open public source ↗
RT-S09 · T2DOD Cyberspace Operations: About 500 Organizations Have Roles, with Some Potential Overlap

Primary use: Cyber workforce scale, organization, contractor use, training-support structure, and overlap

Known limitation: Organization and personnel counts do not establish specialty fit, qualification, availability, team readiness, or retention

Open public source ↗
RT-S10 · T2Deployment-to-Dwell, Mobilization-to-Dwell Policy Revision

Primary use: Authoritative active deployment-to-dwell and reserve mobilization-to-dwell goals, thresholds, definitions, and exceptions

Known limitation: Policy condition and burden measure only; does not measure proficiency, mission output, specialty retention, or a PRC analogue

Open public source ↗
RT-S11 · T2Air Force Readiness: Actions Needed to Improve New Process for Preparing Units to Deploy

Primary use: Force-generation design; team deployment; base staffing; implementation metrics; operational burden context

Known limitation: AFFORGEN-specific and evolving; not a direct specialty-retention or mission-task-performance dataset

Open public source ↗
RT-S12 · T2Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China 2025

Primary use: PLA force structure, readiness activity, exercises, personnel policy, talent issues, corruption, and uncertainty

Known limitation: Relies partly on estimates and classified analysis not reproducible from the public report; specialty-level denominators and retention remain sparse

Open public source ↗
RT-S13 · T32025 direct-recruit noncommissioned officer recruitment analysis

Primary use: Specialty-targeted NCO recruitment counts, categories, eligibility, and pipeline proxy

Known limitation: Recruitment plan or notice does not establish actual accession, graduation, retention, qualification, unit fill, or deployability; translation and coverage require review

Open public source ↗
RT-S14 · T32025 PLAAF and PLAN pilot recruitment policy analysis

Primary use: Pilot recruitment eligibility, policy, selection, and training-pipeline proxy

Known limitation: Recruitment policy is not accession, graduation, combat qualification, retention, or sortie readiness; service definitions differ

Open public source ↗
RT-S15 · T3China's Next Step in Modernizing the People's Liberation Army: A New Reserve Service System

Primary use: Reserve-system authorities, reforms, personnel categories, and mobilization context

Known limitation: Institutional design and legal reform do not establish trained reserve strength, readiness, mobilization speed, or scenario availability

Open public source ↗
RT-S16 · T2Regulations on recruiting military personnel

Primary use: Primary legal and administrative recruitment framework; categories, authorities, and implementation claims

Known limitation: Official policy does not prove implementation, accession quality, training, retention, readiness, or unit-level outcomes; corroboration required

Open public source ↗
Structured review files

Inspect or reuse the contracts.

The catalog defines proposed measures and buckets. It does not publish classified denominators, invent missing PLA values, or change the current rating.

Current public assessment

The rating has not moved.

This experiment does not alter the current Experience & force cohesion call. Open the live capability assessment →