Economic & Industrial Statecraft · Change

Watch delivery, not announcements.

Sixteen indicators track whether financial leverage, physical exposure, coalition implementation, and operating capacity are changing. Eight priorities address the constraints visible in the evidence.

16 indicators8 policy prioritiesObservation dates preserved
Indicators

Measures that can change the call.

Where public outcome data do not exist, the gap is stated directly. A funding award, agreement, or announced facility is not counted as delivered capacity.

IndicatorBaselineSignalWhy it matters
EI-I01 · System leverageDollar share of disclosed reservesUpdated: <built-in method update of dict object at 0x7589ef62a240>
57.13%As of 2026 Q1
Broadly stable; valuation-sensitive

Tracks one foundation of financial reach, not sanction effectiveness by itself.

EI-I02 · System exposureU.S. net international investment positionUpdated: <built-in method update of dict object at 0x7589ef62ad80>
-$21.27 trillionAs of 2026 Q1
Large external balance-sheet exposure

Provides context on deep capital-market integration and valuation exposure.

EI-I03 · Industrial structureSemiconductor production value-added shareUpdated: <built-in method update of dict object at 0x7589ef62a940>
China 30% · Taiwan 23% · U.S. 19% · South Korea 11%As of 2024
Geographically concentrated

Shows production weight, while remaining distinct from leading-edge node capacity.

EI-I04 · InnovationU.S. R&D intensityUpdated: <built-in method update of dict object at 0x7589ef628580>
3.4% of GDPAs of 2024 / latest harmonized estimate
High but contested

Measures input intensity; translation to production must be tested separately.

EI-I05 · InnovationChina share of AI international-priority patentsUpdated: <built-in method update of dict object at 0x7589ef62b280>
75%As of 2024
High and rising

Signals scale in protected invention; quality and deployment require separate evidence.

EI-I06 · Input concentrationAverage top-refiner share, key minerals excluding rare earthsUpdated: <built-in method update of dict object at 0x7589ef623740>
72%As of 2025
Up from 70% in 2023

Tracks whether diversification changes the actual processing bottleneck.

EI-I07 · Coercive exposureMineral tariff codes under Chinese export controlsUpdated: <built-in method update of dict object at 0x7589ef6215c0>
Three times the 2023 countAs of 2026 report
Expanded

Shows expansion of controlled product scope; license approvals and realized shortages remain separate.

EI-I08 · Diversification financeAdvanced-economy public finance commitments for critical mineralsUpdated: <built-in method update of dict object at 0x7589ef62b040>
About $65 billionAs of 2025
More than four times 2023

Measures commitment; disbursement and qualified output are the delivery tests.

EI-I09 · Project deliveryCHIPS milestones reported completeUpdated: <built-in method update of dict object at 0x7589ef62b000>
24 of 161As of July 2025
Early portfolio stage

Separates award announcements from delivery.

EI-I10 · Project deliveryCHIPS-funded projects certified completeUpdated: <built-in method update of dict object at 0x7589ef62a780>
1 leading-edge facilityAs of June 2025
First completion

Marks the first completed facility; product qualification, yield, utilization, and cost remain to be assessed.

EI-I11 · Energy resilienceRussian share of EU gas importsUpdated: <built-in method update of dict object at 0x7589ef62abc0>
12%As of 2025
Down from 45% in 2021

A physical dependency outcome rather than a policy-activity count.

EI-I12 · Energy resilienceRussian piped-gas deliveries to the EUUpdated: <built-in method update of dict object at 0x7589ef62b0c0>
Down 90% from 2021As of 2025
Sharp diversification

Cross-checks the import-share measure with physical flow.

EI-I13 · Maritime resilienceU.S. oceangoing commercial ship constructionUpdated: <built-in method update of dict object at 0x7589ef62b640>
Routinely 3–5 ships per yearAs of MARAD strategy study, 2026
Capacity constraint

A concrete regeneration bottleneck distinct from port and naval capacity.

EI-I14 · Campaign outcomeRussia macroeconomic growth effectUpdated: <built-in method update of dict object at 0x7589ef62b5c0>
About -6 percentage points versus counterfactual in 2022; no statistically different result in 2023–24As of GAO analysis, 2025
Initial shock; adaptation

Demonstrates why a campaign needs time-bounded outcome targets rather than designation totals.

EI-I15 · Coalition deliveryIPEF crisis-response performanceUpdated: <built-in method update of dict object at 0x7589ef62b4c0>
No comprehensive public response-time or exercise-outcome series locatedAs of 2026-08-07
Unknown

Without comparable response-time or exercise results, coalition crisis performance cannot yet be judged from public evidence.

EI-I16 · Control effectivenessAdvanced-chip diversion and foreign availabilityUpdated: <built-in method update of dict object at 0x7589ef62b480>
No consolidated public outcome series locatedAs of 2026-08-07
Unknown

The decisive control variable is access to comparable capability, not the number of rules.

Policy priorities

Where action could strengthen leverage.

These options target constraints identified in the research. Each includes observable evidence for judging whether implementation is producing real capacity or strategic effect.

01

Report progress from authorization through sustained output

For every industrial initiative, report authorized, obligated, disbursed, under-construction, equipment-installed, qualified, operating, and sustained-throughput stages separately.

Evidence of progress
Share of projects and dollars at each stage, together with schedule variance and unit-cost evidence.
02

Map the binding stage of each dependency

Trace strategic products through mine or feedstock, processing, tools, components, qualification, logistics, maintenance, and workforce before assigning a vulnerability.

Evidence of progress
Concentration, time-to-substitute, qualified capacity, inventories, and recovery time at the actual bottleneck.
03

Define the objective—and when to adjust or end the policy

Define the target behavior or capacity, transmission mechanism, time horizon, acceptable sender cost, escalation bounds, and conditions for tightening, adapting, or ending the instrument.

Evidence of progress
Observed target behavior and capacity versus a stated counterfactual—not designations, tariffs, or license counts alone.
04

Pre-negotiate coalition implementation

Agree definitions, coverage, licensing, exceptions, enforcement information, burden sharing, and review schedules before a crisis.

Evidence of progress
Jurisdictional coverage, implementation lag, exception rate, enforcement capacity, and exercise response time.
05

Finance balanced chains and credible demand

Pair upstream projects with processing, components, workforce, infrastructure, qualification, and long-duration offtake instead of financing isolated assets.

Evidence of progress
Qualified downstream capacity relative to upstream output, contracted demand, cost gap, and time to commercial throughput.
06

Stress-test physical and institutional resilience

Run disruption exercises against minerals, ports, energy, payments, cloud, components, and key logistics; publish bounded after-action findings.

Evidence of progress
Detection time, inventory days, alternate-route activation, output loss, recovery time, and unresolved authorities.
07

Protect the foundations of financial leverage

Treat rule of law, market depth, policy predictability, payments resilience, and coalition legitimacy as capabilities that require maintenance.

Evidence of progress
Reserve and funding shares adjusted for valuation, market liquidity, partner participation, and substitution behavior.
08

Track adaptation as aggressively as pressure

Maintain a countermeasure register covering rerouting, front companies, technical substitution, fiscal support, retaliation, inventory use, and third-country intermediation.

Evidence of progress
Time and cost to route around the instrument, residual denial, sender leakage, and policy update cycle.